Heroes: The Right Marches to the Tune of Anti-Immigration 

 

“Everybody’s singing with their hand on their heart, about 

Deeds done in the darkest hours” 

 
There have been several consistent themes to my articles, primarily income inequality, and the rise of fascism. I know that its more acceptable to be called “populist” but, if it looks like fascism, sounds like fascism, then it is fascism. And that is what I shall call it. 

Income inequality became more prevalent post-GFC. For many there has been a stealthy recession that has gone largely unreported. Many developed economies including Europe, the US, as well as our own, have, and still are, experiencing this. 

This has created an underbelly of voters dissatisfied with their lot,  providing a fertile breeding ground for right-wing politicians. Along with their economic woes, this group of the electorate have lost faith in mainstream politics and the “establishment” that supports them. Added to this we have the culture wars centred on race, genre, sexuality, and immigration. 
 

‘For many there has been a stealthy recession that has gone largely unreported’

 
In the UK this initially manifested itself in the form of the anti-EU Brexit referendum. After that, to keep the fires burning the right added culture wars and immigration. The latter was supposed to have been overcome by Brexit but, as with everything else, it hasn’t delivered. 

The right thrive on negativity and nationalism. They have a constant need for someone or something to blame, usually to overcome or mask their own shortcomings. For example, Brexit hasn’t failed it wasn’t done properly because “moderate” politicians and the establishments didn’t want it. 

In the UK, immigration is the number one subject for hard-right politicians and voters. The government is tearing itself asunder over the issue, with all manner of wild schemes, including offshoring to Rwanda. 

Whilst this policy was ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, the PM is now under pressure to disregard parts of the Human Rights Act to overcome this. 

However, should he implement this, White House officials are concerned that a block on legal challenges would damage the authority of the ECHR which is fundamental to the Good Friday agreement, which could damage UK-US relations. 

Conservative Sir Bob Neill, chair of the justice select committee and a former minister, said; “Anything that undermines the Good Friday agreement would be really dangerous for the peace process. There is no à la carte menu, where you can pick and choose which parts of the convention you wish to follow.” 

Aside from immigration, there are, however, a range of factors is driving the advance of fascism in the UK and European. 

Within immigration there is Islamophobia, then there is the EU, more recently, culture wars, minority rights. The climate crisis and the sacrifices needed to combat it have joined the list. 

The appeal of these politicians has been further enhanced by a cost of living crisis flowing from pandemic recovery and Russia’s war on Ukraine, by rapid and confusing social and digital change, and by a mounting mistrust of mainstream politicians. 

In almost all European countries, the pressure on the traditional centre-right to co-opt far-right policy proposals, particularly on immigration, has become extreme. The radicalisation of the centre right meaning the cordon sanitaire that long separated it from the far right is evaporating. 

As a result, centre right parties have adopted nativist talking points and been willing to join coalitions, whilst far-right parties are moderating some of their more voter-repellent views. 

For example, much of Europe’s centre right is now as hardline on immigration as the far right. While far-right parties are busy projecting economic discipline, dialling back on Euroscepticism and downplaying their past support for Russia. 
 

‘much of Europe’s centre right is now as hardline on immigration as the far right’

 
Analysis by more than 100 political scientists across 31 countries found that in national elections last year [2022] a record 32% of European voters cast their ballots for anti-establishment parties, compared with 20% in the early 2000s and 12% in the early 1990s. 

The PopuList (https://popu-list.org/)  has identified 234 anti-establishment parties across Europe, including 112 far-right parties (most, but not all, populist). 

There are hard-right governments in Hungary, and, a populist far-right leader, Giorgia Meloni, in Italy. 

In Slovakia, Robert Fico, an avowed Orbán (Hungarian PM) admirer, won September’s election, and fulfilled campaign promise to halt military aid to Ukraine, and has raised rule-of-law concerns with attacks on the press. 

The far right is part of the ruling coalition in Finland and, in exchange for key policy concessions, propping up another in Sweden. 

In Austria, the FPÖ is well ahead in the polls less than a year from the next election, while in Germany, the far-right AfD has surged from 10% to more than 21%, trailing only the centre-right CDU, and this year won its first district council elections. 

If presidential elections were held today in France, polls suggest Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Rally – who scored a record 41.46% last time around – would win. Far-right Flemish nationalists are set to make big gains in the Belgian elections in June. 

Three hard-right, nativist parties in Greece won parliamentary seats in June’s vote, whilst in Spain Vox lost more than a third of its MPs. 

Daphne Halikiopoulou, a comparative political scientist at the University of York and a PopuList co-author, found that people were now voting far right “who never used to and you wouldn’t expect to: older women, urban voters, the educated middle class. They’re willing to trade democracy for something, to say: ‘I know this leader is authoritarian – but at least he’ll bring economic stability.’” 
 

‘people were now voting far right “who never used to and you wouldn’t expect to: older women, urban voters, the educated middle class’

 
Cas Mudde, a professor in international affairs at the University of Georgia, said core support for anti-establishment, particularly radical right parties had not actually grown much. 

“What has grown is the group of voters who have a tolerance for them,” he said. “Those who wouldn’t vote Le Pen in the first round of French presidential elections but do in the second. That group has really, really grown.” 

Mudde believes that society had changed. The mainstreaming of radical right ideas had led to a radicalisation of the centre; tolerance of the radical right – among elites and the public – had clearly grown. Longstanding boundaries and consensuses had broken. 

He said; “Look at Britain’s Tories. In their discourse and rhetoric, they are radical right. And as the mainstream radicalises, the radical right has to go further, to offer something different, to stand out.” 

There has been some setbacks for the right, Vox was defeated in Spain, as was Poland’s ruling Law & Justice party. See “Up the Pole(s)” for my commentary. 

There was, however, recent success in Holland for Gert Wilders anti-Islam Party for Freedom (PVV), who won 37 of the 150 seats, more than double their 2021 total. 

There are questions at to whether he can form a coalition. If Wilders does succeed, it is likely that the  more extreme  parts of his manifesto, such as banning the Qur’an and holding a Nexit referendum, will fall away. 

As might be expected reaction to Wilders success was mixed. Comments against Wilders included:  
 

• “I am extremely concerned about the near future of our country. Mostly for the safety and wellbeing of the Muslim community as well as refugees and asylum seekers in the Netherlands. The election results are a consequence of many years of right-wing politicians’ fear-mongering.” 
• “However, my biggest concern is that his attempt to close the Netherlands’ borders to curb immigration will put Nexit on the table.” 
• “It was a Brexit moment. We were totally blindsided. Non-PVV’ers are reassuring Muslim and non-white friends that this is not in their name. I am very nervous about what will happen in society”. 

 
Those in-favour: 
 

• “Immigration is a problem – there is too much. I’m very welcoming of those who flee from war, but people who don’t integrate are a problem. Another problem is healthcare. The healthcare insurance system has become [increasingly privatised]. Their only interest is profit – there’s no care for quality and many people in the Netherlands can’t access the treatment they need.“ 

 

• “Immigration is the most important issue for me. I want to see greater governance – more accountability, more defence spending. Also, the reestablishment of connection between government and people at large – there’s alienation in society.” 
• “The housing crisis for both young and old, the cost of living and problems in the healthcare system and around energy. Politicians, who have not taken enough responsibility to do something about it, have led to this shift. I’ve been a VVD voter almost all my life but nothing got done in the last 12 years. NSC’s leader wants a new way of governing. I’m all in favour of those who need to flee from war coming to the Netherlands, but not [economic migrants]”. 

 
Closer to home, last week there was racially motivated violence in Ireland after a multiple stabbing in Dublin’s north inner city. Far-right agitators seized the opportunity to portray the attacks as having the hallmarks of Islamist terrorism, whipped up a frenzy on social media and urged their followers to protest.
 

‘Ireland’s far-right parties have emerged within the past 10-yrs’

 
This organised violence wasn’t just a group looking for trouble, but a part of a growing political faction. Ireland’s far-right parties have emerged within the past 10-yrs. In the 2020 general election, the best-performing far-right candidate won just 2% of first-preference votes. 

Post the pandemic, their support has grown due to anti-lockdown groups on social media, drawing together anti-vaxxers and conspiracy communities.  

The government has failed to deal with issues such as the housing crisis, parents struggling to find adequate childcare, GPs not taking new patients, and farmers worry about environmental policies. These are not new problems, but they have been allowed to fester, creating fertile conditions for fearmongering around a newer issue: immigration. 

In the 2020 election, only 1% of the electorate was concerned by immigration, now it is one of the dominant political subjects. 

The catalyst was the arrival of tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees alongside a record number of asylum seekers from other countries in 2022. The government struggled to find accommodation for them, and had to repurpose community facilities, industrial buildings and hotels to manage the influx. 

This struggle to accommodate everyone, prompted anti-immigrant groups to declare “Ireland is full”. 

The movement is now looking at new “opportunities”; a mob shuttered a public library in Cork for stocking LGBTQ+ books. More recently, far-right protesters sent Dáil Éireann, parliament’s lower house, into lockdown while carting around a noose prop outside featuring images of politicians. 

Back in the UK, with an election expected next year, the right is flexing its muscles, with Reform UK and immigration to the fore.  The latest polls show the Tories on 21% and Reform on 10%, up from 2% in 2019. 

Immigration lags behind the economy and health in terms of voters concern, but it is a deciding issue for Reform. There is much to play for as polls show up to 17% of voters are undecided; cue politicians prioritising  control, security, community and nationalism. 

Excessive immigration was the primary driver of a hard Brexit. Nothing has changed, and Sunak is still making the same mistakes as David Cameron; unattainable pledges to appease populist emotions.  

Hard-right parties tend to favour self-styled “hard”, “aggressive” leaders. The cult of the “leader” dominates. This is mixed with a nationalistic outlook that has a natural aversion to immigrants. In other words, racists. 
 

‘Farage, as the power behind the throne, offers nothing other than fuelling the fires’

 
Reform offers nothing more on immigration than any of the other parties, but it shouts more loudly. Farage, as the power behind the throne, offers nothing other than fuelling the fires. His every utterance is criticism, demands, identifying what he perceives as problems, but rarely, if ever does, he offer a solution. 

More often than not his contribution merely causes problems. His demands for a hard Brexit stopped the intra-EU labour supply chain, introducing more non-EU migrants in its place. The forms of control now desperately proposed by Conservatives and Labour, will increase the cost of migrant labour, crippling the health and care services, and food supply. This is inflationary, and will require increased public spending. 

The hard-Brexit and the bad feeling it caused has exacerbated illegal immigration, as France, unlike Belgium, have failed to stop the people smugglers.  Brexit has destroyed collaboration with France, leaving Paris with every incentive to export its immigrants and not seriously to impede the boats.  

Offshoring to Rwanda was little more than a headline designed to appease the right-wing media and loonies like Braverman. It is so unworkable that it has become one more stick for Reform to beat the government with. 

In the forthcoming election there will be no cosy electoral pact between the Tories and Reform. Traditional loyalties are dissolving. A third of voters say they are likely to vote tactically, while a third of all MPs do not enjoy majority support in their constituencies. It is therefore, very likely that this becomes a one-issue election; immigration. If so, it will impact the Tories the most, as it will divide the right-wing vote.  
 

‘It is therefore, very likely that this becomes a one-issue election; immigration’

 
People’s fears around immigration are largely based on scaremongering by extremists politicians who use it to further their own ambitions. Immigrants are not going to “swamp” Britain, indeed we have a lower foreign-born population than many other countries in Europe.  

Immigration can be positive; it can benefit the economy, and the care sector. There are clearly humanitarian issues driving some migrants to the UK, and other countries. What is required are clear heads, not poisonous politicians manipulating peoples lack of understanding and bigotry for their own ends. 

Next time you listen to one of them, think firstly whether they even offer solutions. If they do, are they workable, and legal. 

The Tories, even without the Reform factor, are divided two models of conservatism. One has room for liberals. It honours traditions of constitutional propriety and willingly submits to the rule of law. The other is essentially nationalist. It claims legitimacy from a quasi-mystical, intuited sense of the popular will. It cites that authority as reason to sweep aside all institutional or legal constraint. One recognises Farage as an old enemy and the other sees him as a potential leader. 
 

“Ignorance has taken over 

Yo, we gotta take the power back!” 

 
An unexpected mid-week treat from Philip, and a very well researched piece that adds a lot more detail to some long-running threads. I can add nothing by commenting on his powerful piece:

Today we have what can be described as a one-off piece on racism and fascism. Much will be familiar to readers, but the conclusions need repeating. We are back in the 1930s, as it was then, the fight is against fascism. Then it was Mosely, today we have Farage, Braverman et al.

As I wrote some week ago, Brexit could be the death knell of the Tory party.

Before we continue, some praise for a Tory minister, Michael Gove, who took the opportunity presented by the Covid enquiry to apologise to the victims and the families.

“I want to take this opportunity, if I may, to apologise to the victims who endured so much pain, the families who’ve endured so much loss, as a result of the mistakes that were made by the government in response to the pandemic.

And as a minister, responsible for the Cabinet Office, and who was also close to many of the decisions that were made, I must take my share of responsibility for that.”

Meanwhile, back in la-la land, disgraced former PM Truss has been visiting the US and shouting her mouth off

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, in an article, titled “The World Again Needs American Leadership”, Truss cited Ronald Reagan and the end of the cold war.

“The world would benefit from more of that kind of American leadership today,” Truss wrote. “I hope that a Republican will be returned to the White House in 2024. There must be conservative leadership in the US that is once again bold enough to call out hostile regimes as evil and a threat.”

She is living proof that empty vessels make the most noise!

Finally, we turn to the Elgin marbles, which prove another old saying, possession is 90% of the law.

We seem to have caroused around the globe in the 18-19^th century helping ourselves to whatever took our fancy. Once safely in our museums, or the royal treasure-trove, we then assumed it was ours and part of our heritage.

Now, I will draw a parallel with Hitler, who did the same with occupied territories art treasures. After he was defeated, we, amongst other victorious countries, bust a gut to find and return them to their rightful owners.

As unpalatable as my analogy might be, i’ts relevant. I see no difference, other than we won and he didn’t. This is just another example of British exceptionalism, God was an Englishman etc..

Sunak’s behaviour with the Greek PM does him no credit whatsoever, it was simply bad manners. Which is another thing that died out with the empire. Perhaps he needs to watch Paddington, a very polite bear, albeit an illegal immigrant who would now be in the queue for Rwanda.

Before ending, and for all those DIY Investors, we pay tribute to the late Charlie Munger, half of the brains trust behind the extraordinary success of Berkshire Hathaway.  I thought this quote  was especially apt for DIY:

“We have computers with algorithms trading against other computers. We’ve got people who know nothing about stocks, being advised by stockbrokers who know even less.”

Lyrically, we start Night Rally by Elvis Costello, a great ANTIFA song. We finish with “Take the Power Back” by Rage Against the Machine; boy, did these guys get angry. Enjoy!

@coldwarsteve
 

 
 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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