Heroes: Up the Pole(s) 

 

‘There’s an emptiness tonight 

A hole that wasn’t there before 

And I keep reaching for the light 

But I can’t find it anymore’ 

 
Whilst I don’t intend to dwell or opine on the situation in Palestine, what is going on cannot be overlooked. Usually you can identify the good guys, here I am struggling to do so, perhaps one is less bad than the other? I don’t know. 

It goes without saying that the mass murders committed by Hamas are dreadful. However, since then the Gaza health ministry reports that at least 2,750 Palestinians have perished under Israeli bombs, C.25% children. 

Two wrongs don’t make a right, despite what Israeli defence minister might think ‘We are fighting human animals’ as he ordered a ‘complete siege‘ of Gaza with ‘no electricity, no food, no fuel’, adding that Israel intends to ‘eliminate everything’. 

The approach of the EU’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrell seems more balanced, as he reiterated the strong need for Europe to condemn Hamas, but also to condemn any attack on civilians by Israel in the defence of its country that breaches international humanitarian law. 
 

‘Shell whose share price has hit a record high after concerns over the fallout from the Israel-Hamas conflict pushed up the price of oil’

 
But, whatever the situation someone always wins. One example is Shell whose share price has hit a record high after concerns over the fallout from the Israel-Hamas conflict pushed up the price of oil. 

Brent crude has risen to over $91 a barrel, since the conflict began.  

Seema Shah, the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said: ‘The critical macro concern lies with the oil market reaction. Brent crude prices have not risen materially, but a significant escalation in tensions would likely apply further upward pressure.’ 

I suspect part of the issue is the attitude of the hard-right Israeli government, therefore it was reassuring to see the right-wing Polish government given a bloody nose in last weekend’s elections. 

The defeated PiS had government for 8-years, during which they has set about eroding the checks, balances and cultural assumptions that underpin mainstream democracies. The independence of the judiciary and media has been undermined, and state television turned into a propaganda tool. Non-European migrants and LGBTQ+ communities were demonised, presented as threats to the integrity of the nation. Conservative Catholic influence has been mobilised to crackdown on abortion rights. 

Along with Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, they had treated European Union values and norms with contempt, and resisted cooperation on issues such as the migration crisis. 
 

‘Non-European migrants and LGBTQ+ communities were demonised, presented as threats to the integrity of the nation’

 
It is expected that Donald Tusk, a former president of the European Council, will lead a government that will resolve the rule-of-law issues that have dogged relations with Brussels since 2015. In addition, under his rule, Poland should play a supportive role in maintaining western support for Ukraine, and in sensitive future negotiations over EU expansion to the east, boosting European unity in challenging times., 

Domestically things may not be so straightforward. Andrzej Duda, the country’s PiS-aligned president, remains in office, and managing a coalition government comprising Mr Tusk’s centrist Civic Platform party, the centre-right and the left promises to be complicated.  

As with many right-wing parties, including the Tories, PiS retains considerable support in provincial and rural areas, and among the less well educated. In order to unify a polarised country after the bitterest election campaign he will need to offer more to such constituencies. 

As is the situation in the UK, young voters were key in overturning the hard-right. 

The last few years have seen voters turn to right-wing parties, just as this column has warned of since its debut in 2017. In Italy voters ignored the post-fascist roots of Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy movement and made her the country’s first radical right prime minister. In Hungary, a six-party opposition alliance was routed so badly last year that Viktor Orbán, boasted his fourth successive victory could be ‘seen from the moon‘. And so it has gone on. Slovakia has just elected, in Robert Fico, its own Orbán tribute act. 

On Monday, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe reported that manipulation of state resources and media bias gave the ruling nationalist-conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) a ‘clear advantage‘ over opposition parties. Its electoral strategy was based on the traditional fascist populist playbook; maximising the votes of older and less well-off Poles outside the cities, through a combination of social spending and culture war rhetoric. Sounds familiar? 

The success of Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) and two allied opposition parties was aided by the remarkable high turnout, but there are three other stand-out factors, that Labour would do well to note. 

For once this was an election decided by the effective mass mobilisation of more liberal twentysomethings, rather than by socially conservative over-60s. In Italy a year ago, huge numbers in the same age group failed to vote. On Sunday, close to 70% of Poles aged between 18 and 29 went to polling stations, compared with less than half in 2019. Only 14% voted for PiS and the largest proportion voted for KO, which promised to roll back draconian new abortion laws and back same-sex partnerships. 
 

‘For once this was an election decided by the effective mass mobilisation of more liberal twentysomethings, rather than by socially conservative over-60s’

 
In addition, the  KO shunned the economic liberalism of previous defeats, attempting to match PiS on social spending; E.G., delivering new childcare payments to young mothers, maintain welfare benefits and keep the existing retirement age. Planned pay raises for teachers and other public sector workers underlined an anti-austerity message. 

Lastly, each of Poland’s loosely aligned opposition blocs maintained a separate campaigning identity, which enabled the centre-right Third Way grouping to attract disillusioned PiS voters who would have been reluctant to vote for Mr Tusk. This allowed each bloc to campaign positively for distinct programmes, rather than be defined merely by joint opposition to the status quo. 

All of the factors that enabled the KO to win might not be prevalent in the UK, but both Labour and the LibDems should look and learn. 

Back on planet UK, the Tories economic policy looks more inarticulate and confused than ever. 

 

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (‘IFS’) has warned that the government has no room for unfunded pre-election tax cuts despite having pushed through a ‘colossal’ £52bn a year stealth raid on household incomes on Rishi Sunak’s watch,  

Under Sunak’s watch, tax revenues as a share of the British economy are set to reach the highest sustained levels since WW2, in part driven by a six-year freeze on income tax thresholds, a policy first introduced during his time as Boris Johnson’s chancellor. 
 

‘Back on planet UK, the Tories economic policy looks more inarticulate and confused than ever’

 
Known as ‘fiscal drag’ and expanded by Jeremy Hunt last year, the IFS said the policy would raise a £52bn a year for the exchequer by 2027-28. They suggest that the freeze meant as many as 6.5 million more people would pay tax on their income compared with 2020, while 4.5 million more people would be dragged into higher income tax thresholds. 

Paul Johnson, the director of the IFS, said Britain was ‘in a horrible fiscal bind’, leaving Hunt or an incoming Labour government with little room to radically change tax and spending plans. ‘The price of our high levels of indebtedness, failure to stimulate growth and high borrowing costs is likely to be a protracted period of high taxes and tight spending.’ 

An example of the impact this causes can be seen in Tamworth, scene of a forthcoming by-election, where the latest constituency data shows that 19.5% of children lived in relative poverty as of 2021-22. 

Now, you would expect data of that nature to worry prospective candidates, or so I thought. However, the Tory is having to defend sharing a Facebook post telling jobless parents who cannot feed their children to ‘fuck off‘ if they still pay a £30 phone bill. 

The candidate, Andrew Cooper, is seeking to replace the former deputy chief whip Chris Pincher the pervert as MP for Tamworth in one of two byelections on Thursday. 

The Dail Mirror reports that the post, shared in 2020, asked the question: ‘Can you feed your kids?’ The diagram suggests those who are out of work, pay for ‘TV Sky/BT/ETC‘, or ‘have a phone contract + £30′ should ‘fuck off‘ rather than seek help. 

A screenshot of the post was later shared on the local Facebook page Spotted Tamworth alongside an anonymous message reading: ‘Lovely potential MP!! Wants to starve the children!! He won’t get my vote! Absolute cretin!’ 
 

‘having to defend sharing a Facebook post telling jobless parents who cannot feed their children to ‘fuck off‘ if they still pay a £30 phone bill’

 
The attitude of the prospective candidate serves only to highlight the denial the Tories practise; after 13-yrs in government the mess is only of their own making. 

The fact that we have record high levels of taxation and no money hardly shows prudence. Add to the fact that National Infrastructure Commission (‘NIC’) calculates the cost of upgrading the UK’s infrastructure is C.£30bn a year of public money, plus about £40bn-50bn a year of private sector investment, shows how deep the hole has become. 

Ironically, their figure of £30bn is similar to the Labour party’s promised investment of £28bn a year to meet the UK’s net zero targets, shift the economy permanently to a low-carbon footing, and create new green jobs. This creates an ideological problem for the government who repeatedly ridiculed and attacked Labour’s promise, and this is Tory party policy that will carry into the election campaign, based on the proposal being is unaffordable, unnecessary and it will cripple the UK’s economy. 

Hours before the NIC report was finalised, the energy secretary, Claire Coutinho, stood up in the House of Commons on Tuesday night to ridicule Labour’s £28bn proposal, asking Ed Miliband, Labour’s shadow net zero secretary: ‘Can the right honourable gentleman be proud of his record? He said we should sacrifice our growth to cut emissions, that we should borrow £28bn in his blind ambition for 2030.’ 

Sir John Armitt, the chair of the NIC, obviously disagrees. His report spells out the facts that upgrading the UK’s infrastructure is not just a matter of reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions, but for a modern economy to remain competitive you requires energy, transport, water, communications and other basic infrastructure to be modernised and maintained. Those investments will also ensure a decent quality of life, good health and a thriving natural environment. 

Unveiling the NIC report , he said; ‘We stand at a pivotal moment in time, with the opportunity to make a major difference to this country’s future. But we need to get on with it.’ 

The Tories have, once again, descended into populist destruction, with no alternative coherent vision for creating a thriving Britain. Obviously the exception is roads and motorists, who seem to be their apparent saviour. 
 

‘We stand at a pivotal moment in time, with the opportunity to make a major difference to this country’s future. But we need to get on with it.’ 

 
Indeed, there appears to be alarming difference between the NIC report’s recommendations and recent government rhetoric. For example, the report finds that recycling rates need a boost before we drown in our own waste, whereas the government keep telling us that they have saved householders from having to use seven bins for rubbish. 

Cars are high among the report’s priorities, but not in a way vroom vroom Rishi envisages. Rather than driving where we want as fast as we can, the report says motorists  will have to be encouraged or forced out of their vehicle to avoid towns and cities becoming so congested they cease to function. The commissioners finding are based on economic productivity not political games; they contrasted the UK’s major cities with those of similar size and importance in Europe and found it took far longer to get into and around British cities than those in the EU, owing to pitiful public transport outside London. 
 

Populism is based on negativity and criticism, ideal for opposition but useless for government. Unfortunately the Tories offer nothing else 

 
In contrast, ministers are been fuming about ‘15 minute cities‘, based on scaremongering accusing councils of rationing trips to the shops, trying to put an end to traffic reduction schemes and vowing to face down a supposed ‘war on motorists‘. 

No doubt the government and its fawning media will further double-down and criticise the reports’ findings, glossing over the fact that the NIC was created up by a Conservative chancellor. The report took 2-yrs, is a comprehensive piece of work that could serve as a blueprint for the UK’s economy for the next crucial decade, when much of the new infrastructure that will be needed between now and 2050 must be built. 

If, as I expect, ministers stick to their martial rhetoric, ignoring the assessment by experts of the failures that continually hold us back, they will exacerbate the UK’s stagnating productivity, while less ideologically hamstrung nations flourish. 

Populism is based on negativity and criticism, ideal for opposition but useless for government. Unfortunately the Tories offer nothing else.

 
 

‘War, I despise 

‘Cause it means destruction of innocent lives 

War means tears to thousands of mother’s eyes 

When their sons go off to fight 

And lose their lives’ 

 
 
A cracker from Philip, and since he filed his copy, the scores are on the doors in Tamworth and Mid-Beds, and to anyone other than a blinkered Tory die-hard it would look like a comprehensive rogering; ‘not so’ says Conservative Chair Greg Hands – ’tis but a flesh wound.

And then there is the embarassing spectacle of ‘Briefcase wanker’ Sunak strutting around in the clearly delusional belief that anybody GAF what he says on the international stage.

So, what was he thinking?:

Should the Tories lose the next election we will lose many of those “laugh out loud” moments. Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak…the theatre of the absurd.

I remember how I used to tease my Italian friends about Berlusconi; from a distance it was funny. This time the joke is on me!

Rishi’s latest trip to Israel is an exercise in self-glorification and damage to the planet. What on earth can he, we, contribute? It’s just showboating, trying to show his shrinking audience we still matter.

Perhaps, what he’s trying to do is put distance between himself and two more disastrous by-election defeats.

How the covers situations such as the Palestinian debacle never ceases to amaze me. Mussolini, my mother, gets all her news from the Daily Mail and GBNews, as a result she has locked all her doors in defence of the marauding herds of “Jedis” (she struggles with “Jehadi”) seeking to behead all and sundry.

But this is what the hard right does. For them, images of pro-Palestinian rallies across Europe, or diatribes by wannabe student politicians, justifies their views of the supposed failure of multiculturalism, or the idea that society is enriched by different groups being able to maintain their own religious and cultural traditions.

“This is where multiculturalism leads – civil war. We cannot have different people, with different cultures living side by side without conflict,” tweeted Nick Buckley, self-styled independent candidate for Manchester’s next mayor.

Britain First, an extreme right-wing party banned from Twitter until Elon Musk took over the platform, put it more bluntly: “Enoch Powell was right #riversofblood.”

Today the opponents of multiculturalism tell us that in today’s world we can no longer live alongside each other in a pluralistic world; that mass immigration has broken the west, and that citizenship should be revoked from those already here if they express unacceptable views.

Ironically, their argument that Islamic and non-Islamic worlds cannot peacefully cohabit is the one jihadis make, too.

Fortunately, these views do not predominate. Britain is still also a country where a Hindu prime minister can wear a kippah and join Hebrew prayers at a time of Jewish mourning. It’s a country where a Muslim mayor of London can break bread in a kosher restaurant in Golders Green one day and visit the London office of a charity working in Gaza’s hospitals the next.

Populism is cast in negativity and nostalgia, it provides solutions only for the regressive, the intolerant, and those seeking someone to blame. Perhaps we can learn from Poland, it’s time the young spoke up, and stood up. Tomorrow is their time and they should be deciding what happens, not those who will be 6’ under!

Lyrically, we open with “Looking For An Answer” by Linkin Park. Perhaps unknown to many, they were part of a generation of post-grunge bands often referred to as alternative rock, which fused heavy metal and hip hop. Their 2000 debut album, “hybrid Theory” is regarded as a classic.

To end there really was only one choice, Edwin Starr’s “War”. This time I suggest the cover of this by Frankie Goes to Hollywood. Enjoy!

 
@coldwarsteve
 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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