This is a non-independent marketing communication commissioned by Invesco. The report has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on the dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

 

 

investment trusts

 

 

 

Periodically, we are faced with a ‘black swan’: an unexpected event with significant repercussions. The Covid-19 pandemic is one of those events.

This has led to a significant contraction in economic activity and considerable uncertainty over the timing and pace of recovery.

It has also caused a sharp fall in equity valuations. While unsettling in the short term, especially given the human cost of this crisis, the opportunity to buy stakes in companies at bargain prices is what we live for as active managers.

 

What effect has the downturn had on the Invesco Asia Trust plc?

 

The NAV performance of the Invesco Asia Trust has been really disappointing so far this year both in absolute and relative terms (see Figure 1) and can be attributed to the way the portfolio was set-up going into 2020.

Before Covid-19, there was growing evidence that the long slowdown of global growth, that began in early 2018, was beginning to reverse supported by the lagged effect of global policy easing.

Trade tensions between the US and China had also been improving. We believed that this would lead to a recovery in earnings momentum and a broadening out of market performance.

The portfolio was positioned with the aim of benefitting from this turn in the cycle.

 

diy investing

 

Instead, the spread of Covid-19 has turned this prospect on its head, or at the very least delayed it significantly.

The economically sensitive sectors, such as financials, which were likely beneficiaries of a recovery, were sold off, in some cases indiscriminately.

The portfolio’s exposure to technology, health care and internet businesses has offered some reprieve but not enough to fully offset the weakness in cyclicals.

However, Asia has historically delivered strong positive returns from current valuations levels (see Figure 2 below as of 8 May 2020) and we believe that the trust currently holds a number of significantly undervalued businesses.

 

covid 19

 

Using these observations, we can infer that investing in the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index at an average valuation level of 1.6x book value (4th decile) has historically led to a 5-year CAGR return of 8.6% on average.

 

Re-evaluating the portfolio in testing times

 

Even accounting for the weak economic backdrop that is expected over the next year or so, some companies will emerge stronger.

The most innovative technology companies, as well as Chinese internet companies we own, come to mind. Working from home has led to increased demand for PC-related equipment and cloud capacity.

There has also been an acceleration in the trend towards online shopping and gaming. These are enduring themes that are well represented in the portfolio and will remain so for as long as valuation levels permit.

Conversely, some businesses will take time to return to the level of profits they achieved in 2019. This may include high quality businesses in more economically sensitive areas. In many cases, valuations reflect limited expectation of recovery and we see this as a source of opportunity.

The key questions for us during this period of uncertainty are as follows:

 

  • Is the business robust enough to withstand the current economic downturn?
  • Is the business worth much more than reflected in the share price using conservative assumptions about the next 3 years?
  • What’s the best way to position the portfolio in these markets?

 

We have run the ruler on every single portfolio holding with this framework in mind.

Currently1, over 75% of the portfolio (excluding financials) is held in companies with net cash positions2.

 

What actions have we taken in the Invesco Asia Trust?

 

Firstly, we have not changed the way we manage money or how we analyse companies. We believe that buying companies at a discount is the most sustainable way to make money for investors over the long term.

We have significantly reduced our overweight in financials given the likelihood of a low interest rate environment and the potential for some asset quality deterioration.

‘We believe that buying companies at a discount is the most sustainable way to make money for investors over the long term’

Our remaining bank holdings tend to be very well capitalized, have loss-absorbing capabilities and are focused on the more under-banked parts of Asia like India.

We have also identified several companies which we believe have been hit indiscriminately and have scope to do well in a rebound, without making too optimistic an assumption about the trajectory of earnings over the medium-term.

For all our holdings, balance sheet strength remains an important consideration.

In India, we have continued to build a position in Mahindra & Mahindra which has a highly profitable tractor business trading at a mid-single digit multiple.

We also believe that there is an emerging capital allocation improvement story which the market has yet to appreciate.

In China, we have purchased Tencent Music Entertainment, a livestreaming and music subscription company. It has more than twice Spotify’s monthly active users but only a quarter of its market value.

We believe the market is underestimating its ability to convert its users into paying subscribers.

We have also introduced Genting Singapore: an integrated resorts operator with a strong balance sheet and material upside potential over a three-year horizon, in our view.

We think that its growth prospects are being significantly undervalued even if we assume no earnings for 2020. It has over 30% of its market cap in net cash and a dividend yield of almost 6% which is unlikely to be cut3.

It’s impossible to predict how and when Covid-19 will be defeated but history has repeatedly demonstrated that buying the market at low valuations has led to very good subsequent returns.

This is because markets tend to extrapolate short term news too far into the future, leading to low expectations, and policy responses eventually provide enough impetus for an economic and earnings recovery. This time the monetary and fiscal easing is unprecedented.

Our job is to hold the shares of around 60 Asian companies we believe have strong upside potential while aiming to minimise the risk of a permanent loss of capital as we navigate through these testing times.

 

ian hargreaves

 

 

 

[1] All data sources from Invesco 30 April 2020

[2] All data sourced from Invesco, dated 30 April 2020

[3] Source, Bloomberg, 30 April 2020

 

Investment Risks

The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested.

The product invests in emerging and developing markets, where difficulties in relation to market liquidity, dealing, settlement and custody problems could arise.

The product uses derivatives for efficient portfolio management which may result in increased volatility in the NAV.

The use of borrowings may increase the volatility of the NAV and may reduce returns when asset values fall.

Important Information

Where individuals or the business have expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice.

For more information on our products, please refer to the relevant Key Information Document (KID), Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive document (AIFMD), and the latest Annual or Half-Yearly Financial Reports. This information is available using the contact details shown.

This document is marketing material and is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities.

When making an investment in an investment trust/company you are buying shares in a company that is listed on a stock exchange. The price of the shares will be determined by supply and demand. Consequently, the share price of an investment trust/company may be higher or lower than the underlying net asset value of the investments in its portfolio and there can be no certainty that there will be liquidity in the shares.

Issued by Invesco Fund Managers Limited, Perpetual Park, Perpetual Park Drive, Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire RG9 1HH, UK. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

 

Click to visit:

investment trusts income

 

Disclaimer

This report has been issued by Kepler Partners LLP.  The analyst who has prepared this report is aware that Kepler Partners LLP has a relationship with the company covered in this report and/or a conflict of interest which may impair the objectivity of the research.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested when you decide to sell your investments. It is strongly recommended that if you are a private investor independent financial advice should be taken before making any investment or financial decision.

Kepler Partners is not authorised to make recommendations to retail clients. This report has been issued by Kepler Partners LLP, is based on factual information only, is solely for information purposes only and any views contained in it must not be construed as investment or tax advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or take any action in relation to any investment.

The information provided on this website is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Kepler Partners LLP to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. In particular, this website is exclusively for non-US Persons. Persons who access this information are required to inform themselves and to comply with any such restrictions.

The information contained in this website is not intended to constitute, and should not be construed as, investment advice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. Any views and opinions, whilst given in good faith, are subject to change without notice.

This is not an official confirmation of terms and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell or take any action in relation to any investment mentioned herein. Any prices or quotations contained herein are indicative only.  

Kepler Partners LLP (including its partners, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have positions in or options on the securities detailed in this report, and may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, but will at all times be subject to restrictions imposed by the firm’s internal rules. A copy of the firm’s Conflict of Interest policy is available on request.





Leave a Reply