Dec
2024
Mr Brightside: Madness
DIY Investor
10 December 2024
“A-That someone is losing their brain
Hey, madness, madness, I call it gladness, yee-ha-ha-ha”
One of the main tenets of this column since 2017 has been the rise of fascism, and far-right politicians globally
This year more than 1.6 billion citizens have cast their votes in over 7- countries. Despite all these democratic elections, democracy feels more vulnerable than at any time since the 1930s
There is a disconnect between the electorate and their leaders, based on scepticism and lack of trust. Our legacy to the young is questionable; climate breakdown, a lack of economic opportunities, social injustice, the global housing crisis, all have steadily eroded the democratic ideal. As a result, society is facing a wave of distrust in democratic institutions, particularly among younger citizens.
In many ways, representative democracy no longer represents an increasing percentage of the electorate. As a result, even in countries with traditionally stable and moderate democracies far-right ideas are circulating and growing. They are becoming acceptable as mainstream parties, desperate to appease voters, embrace ideas that only a few years ago had seemed unimaginable.
‘climate breakdown, a lack of economic opportunities, social injustice, the global housing crisis, all have steadily eroded the democratic ideal’
This includes anti-immigration policies based on the premise that immigration is ruining society, that net zero is a conspiracy against the people. Promoting diversity is a perversion of the natural order. Traditional patriotism is the only real patriotism. Liberals should be purged from the state bureaucracy – otherwise, national decline is inevitable.
In the UK, Tories from Thatcher to Badenoch, have endorsed far-right politicians because they have seen them as an electoral threat, or because they agreed with them on an issue, or both. Here, and elsewhere the line between the right and far right has become increasingly blurred.
This tack to the right by the electorate has also forced more centrist politicians in the same direction. Labour under Blair embraced free-market capitalism, today PM Starmer is faced with Brexiters who are inward-looking nationalists. On the subject of immigration, he has been careful to say that the “millions of people concerned about immigration” have “legitimate” concerns.
It frightens me to see just how many voters consciously or not, have absorbed the far right’s favourite, highly questionable argument that immigration is central to this country’s problems – as opposed to inadequate public spending or an ever-more unequal economy.
Just how much impact the far-right is having was confirmed last week in a poll by “Find Out Now”.
The Tories are on 26%, one point down from last, Reform UK are up two points to 24%,with Labour dropping two points to 23%. The Lib Dems are way behind on 11%, with the Greens on 9% and the SNP on 3%.
Should this continue, British politics could become a three-way fight between the Conservatives, Reform and Labour.
‘British politics could become a three-way fight between the Conservatives, Reform and Labour’
Up next for Reform are next May’s local elections. With news of net migration reaching a record 900,000. Rachel Reeves’s misfiring budget, and PM Starmer’s focus on transactional politics, fixated on figures and statistics, Labour look increasingly lost. There is almost no “we” or “us”, whereas Farage prospers by empathising with those marooned in the same political and economic rut they have been in for decades.
In addition to immigration and the lack of local public services, there is one other inescapable issue: housing, or more accurately the lack of.
We have gone from feast under Thatcher and her right-to-buy policy, encouraging people to buy their council houses at huge discounts to famine with their children and grandchildren struggling with the dire housing crisis that policy caused.
Last week, the new Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, revealed much of the her thinking in a speech where she highlighted Elon Musk’s, “muscular liberalism”.
If that wasn’t a bad enough choice of role model, she then lauded the Argentinian president, Javier Milei, who was quoted saying: “I know, to many it may sound ridiculous to suggest that the West has turned to socialism, but it’s only ridiculous if you limit yourself to the traditional economic definition of socialism, which says that it’s an economic system where the state owns the means of production. This definition should be updated in the light of current circumstances.
“ Today, states don’t need to directly control the means of production to control every aspect of the lives of individuals. With tools such as printing money, debt, subsidies, controlling the interest rate, price controls, and regulations to correct so-called market failures, they can control the lives and fates of millions of individuals.”
Kemi told us that she “knows the values that can make citizens wealthier and happier and how without them, they become engines of misery and despair.”
Now, we all have different ideas of a role model, but Argentina has been an economic basket-case for years.
‘Now, we all have different ideas of a role model, but Argentina has been an economic basket-case for years’
In July this year, the Buenos Aires Times wrote: “The country’s vast informal workforce saw wages increase 136 percent year-over-year in April, nearly half the pace of the 248 percent jump among the formal private sector, salaried employees, according the most recent available data. Not only are wages in both sectors unable to keep up with 272 percent inflation, they’re exacerbating income disparity in a nation where 42 percent of its people already lived in poverty last year.”
Good luck to all those suffering inequality and a lack of available housing, under Kemi that will continue. In fact, it is likely to get worse, as she believes “my party lost because it spent a lot of time, “Talking Right, but governing Left.”
As it is unlikely that the majority of the media will praise a Labour government whatever it achieves, the party needs to make better use of social media, which has been of great benefit to Reform. This was covered in more detail in “TikTok, TikTok, “X”, Is There Any Point?”
One area that always looks an open goal is Brexit, all the statistics point to the fact that it has been little short of disastrous, and it was bought about by Farage.
In May this year, the National Audit Office, revealed that the new post-Brexit border checks, introduced in April after repeated delays, will cost the public purse £4.7 billion.
‘Food prices in the UK increased 25% between 2019 and 2023, the research calculated, that if the post-Brexit trade restrictions were not in place this increase would be only 17%’
In addition, they reported that HMRC estimates that the extra paperwork involved in these checks will cost UK importers and exporters an additional £7.5bn per year.
Analysis by Goldman Sachs published in February 2024 found that Brexit is directly responsible for the UK economy growing 5% less since the vote in 2016. BoE policymaker Jonathan Haskel as said that’s around £1,000 per household.
The size of the economy directly impacts the amount of money the Government has to spend on public services. Analysis from the Centre for European Reform found that between 2021 and 2022, the shortfall in economic performance led to a shortfall in tax revenue worth around £40billion.
Last year, researchers at the London School of Economics found that British households have paid £7bn since Brexit to cover the extra cost of trade barriers on food imports from the EU.
Food prices in the UK increased 25% between 2019 and 2023, the research calculated, that if the post-Brexit trade restrictions were not in place this increase would be only 17% – nearly a third lower.
Last week, a report by the Centre of Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) has found that the export of UK food and agricultural products to the EU has fallen by more than 16%, £2.8bn, on average across the three years since Britain left the single market, when compared with the three years before the exit.
Does PM Starmer have the balls to reignite Brexit and those that caused it? Very unlikely. As a result he is played on an uneven playing surface created by his opponents.
‘Does PM Starmer have the balls to reignite Brexit and those that caused it? Very unlikely’
The election result in the US highlighted the fact that voters felt woke issues had been put ahead of the impact of inflation and immigration. Fifty-three per cent of voters felt that the Democrats had gone “too far in pushing a woke ideology”. They’ve “gone in a weird direction”, said one; “lost touch with our priorities”, said another. Worse still was the sense that any voter who disagreed was “a bad person”.
PM Starmer’s campaign was based on change. In the US, 2% of voters said the system needed no change, while 70% believed the country was heading in the wrong direction. But, the change these voters want is a fundamental shake-up in the way that both government and the economy operate. This would appear too radical for PM Starmer, but something that the Tories under Badenoch, and Reform are promising.
To succeed there needs to be a strong, overarching narrative and a plan to reform government and the economy, if Labour is to deliver the changes expected by the electorate. Perhaps, the launch of Starmer’s “plan for change”, with its emphasis on working people being better off, will be the start, but it needs to be delivered with greater empathy and enthusiasm.
Should Labour fail, they will be succeeded by either the decaf espresso of the Tories or a full espresso Reform.
As we have seen, Reform have edged ahead of Labour in a survey for the first time – and was only two points behind the Conservatives. And that’s before Elon Musk has handed over a penny of the $100m (£78m) he is said to be considering.
As I wrote in “Darklands” it doesn’t matter what economic indicators says when voters feel they are paying too much for milk, eggs and petrol compared to what they used to cost.
Starmer needs to improve his cold persona. He may not be telegenic but he can still show more enthusiasm. Targets and data leave voters cold, they know when the feel better off. Unfortunately, the relaunch is very much focused on targets, as such it needs effective communication to get the message across.
‘Targets and data leave voters cold, they know when the feel better off’
For too much of their first 6-months in office the government has allowed the Tories and the rest of the opposition opportunities to repeatedly attack them, undermining them at almost every turn. Labour needs to grasp the narrative and play on the front-foot.
Labour have constantly reminded us of the basket-case they inherited, and how they were faced with difficult choices, that left them little option but to cut fuel allowances, widening inheritance taxes to offset increasing the pay of public sector workers. Unfortunately, the messaging has been poor, and they have received only criticism.
The fact that the Tories were in power from 2010 till July this year, means that the state of the UK economy, infrastructure and services is their fault. But now it is Labour’s problem.
If we are avoid the fate of the US and many mainland European countries, Labour needs to step-up. Their mission plans, goals, objectives and now 6-new milestones, need to be delivered in a way where the electorate feels change is coming, and they are enthused about it.
Last weeks “Find Out Now” poll is a very real warning!
“Don’t just sit there on your ass
Unlock that funky chaindance”
‘As year-end closes in, we turn to very familiar themes.
I had hoped that, with the sweeping majority won by Labour in June, I would write about change and progress. About how the UK had bucked the trend and voted in a centrist government that would bring about redistribution, development, progress, and a happier country.
Instead, I find myself considering how they constantly err, and how the right is grasping the opportunity.
As readers will know, I have constantly warned that Farage is the elephant in the room. Forget Reform, they are his party, without him they are merely an irritation. Whereas, I had always felt he might be the kingmaker in a coalition government, today I can see how he might become PM.
Farage is like Trump. Reform is his vehicle in the same way that Republicans are Trump’s. But, without them the vehicles goes nowhere.
People embraced Trump because they identify with him, he speaks to them, not at them. He doesn’t give them data, he paints pictures, ones that show them what they want to see.
Of course, it’s all smoke and mirrors, strong, totalitarian leaders are always that. The key is perception; they provide voters with what they perceive as their reality.
The Tories under Badenoch will huff and puff, but she is too confrontational. She doesn’t possess that snake oil charm that politicians such as Farage and Johnson have. I would suggest that, if the Tories want to overcome Reform, Johnson is the man to do that.
The situation is stark, if Labour can’t deliver we will see Farage as PM!
Lyrically, we continue the theme of madness with “Madness” by Madness. We finish with Heaven Seventeen’s 1981 warning, “We Don’t Need This Fascist Groove Thing.”
Enjoy!
Philip’
@coldwarsteve
Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.
Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s
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