HP Source: Brexit, is this the end of the never-ending story?

 

We Don’t Need This Fascist Groove Thing, 10 December 2020; Brexit; Is this the end of the never-ending story?

 

‘Questions, questions

Give me no answers

That’s all they ever give me

Questions, questions..’

Some 4 1/2 years after I wrote Brexit: ‘the never-ending story’ we are now at the end game. Such is the mess and chaos we are sailing towards I suspect the game is far from over, so much so that I feel compelled to quote Churchill, ‘Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.’
 

For those of you who have suffered through this saga and, worse still read my musings on it, you have both my sympathy and gratitude. I would like to revisit that first article and focus on two of the questions I posed readers.

The first was, ‘how easy will it actually to be to leave the EU’?

This was the first of numerous correct predictions from this column, however even I didn’t appreciate just how difficult it would be.

Remember every clause of the divorce must be agreed by all 27-member states. Here we are 21-days away from the leaving date, 5 of which are Christmas, the country and continent still ravaged by a pandemic, and we are still arguing over fishing rights with France.
 

‘Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.’

 

Clément Beaune, France’s European affairs minister, said fisheries was a major issue. ‘That’s 6,000 jobs in France. It’s a big deal. There is no reason that just because it’s important for the British, we say ‘OK, we give up, you deny us access to your waters and we will go elsewhere’. That’s not possible. We will make efforts, compromises, yes, we have said that honestly to the French fishermen. But sacrifice our fishermen – no. And the British know it … ‘We will look at the deal when it’s on the table and we will analyse whether or not it defends our interests. If when we look at it we see that it is not as good as not having a deal, we will not hesitate to veto it – as is the case with every other European country who will do this evaluation. I do not want to declare these talks a failure. I think we still have some time to negotiate – a few days – and after we have to say clearly, because it’s important for our fishermen, our businesses, we have to say yes, or no.’
 

‘Elegance and Decadence

Europe Endless..’

 

As we get closer to the deadline No Deal looks the most likely outcome, with Johnson insisting he would be willing to leave the transition period without a deal. He said: ‘We will prosper mightily under any version and if we have to go for an Australian solution then that’s fine too.’

In case anyone is confused, ‘Australian solution’ is political speak for No Deal, it sounds better to tell the electorate that we aren’t the only with a shit deal.

For the record Australia and the EU do not have a free trade deal and there are tariffs on goods, including 48% on lamb and 84% on beef.

Which, of course, must be wonderful for all those farmers who embraced Brexit and now find themselves hoist with their own petard!
 

‘Australian solution’ is political speak for No Deal

 

The second question to be revisited is the impact the impact of finally leaving will have on the Conservatives and will we see the party splinter into factions?

The first point is that the Cabinet will fall behind Johnson and support No Deal, but that’s no surprise that is the raison d’etre, the only reason that such incompetents were ever considered for government posts.

Brussels seemingly takes this threat in their stride used to Brexit sabre-rattling.

Perhaps, they realise that No Deal is a step too far for even these imbeciles to contemplate? The reality is simple, our trade with the EU is 10x that of Canada, and they have a better deal than Australia (no deal).

The EU cannot let us sit outside and trade on our own terms, we would be the EU’s largest outside trader, able to flood their market with lower standard or unfairly subsidised goods, given the size of our exports this would do considerable damage to the remaining member states.

On Sunday night the official ‘reasonable worst case’ scenario for no deal was leaked: we risk a reduction of between 20% and 40% in medicine imports, fishing boats clashing at sea, fresh food supplies cut, low-income households hit worst by price rises, oil shortages, 20 local authorities collapsing under costs, and between 40% and 70% of trucks travelling to the EU not having paperwork ready, while public protests overstretch the police.

This is in addition to old favourites such as, tariffs killing off the car industry, farming, fishing, and finance, not forgetting the creation of a hard border in Ireland, which upsets the newly elected US president.
 

‘There’s no reasonable negotiation on offer’

 

If Johnson signs a deal of any sort, he risks splitting his party. It will be unacceptable to the stalwart Brexiters of the European Reform Group, who made him leader. This threat is then multiplied by the presence of Nigel Farage waiting to pounce, as he tweeted, ‘There’s no reasonable negotiation on offer.’ For them No Deal is the only option

The moderate leave MPs would prefer a deal. A barebones, worst-of-all-worlds deal will please no one, despite his likely protestations that it is ‘fantastic’, ‘world-beating.’ All he can do is pretend it is better than the supposedly apocalyptic ‘better than a bad deal’.

Where the Tories go from here is anyone’s guess, is this the day of reckoning that finally break them? ‘Where is the promised soft landing in sunlit uplands? Instead of ‘exact same benefits’, there will be none.’
 

‘We’ll be together for a thousand years

And do you really fear

That you might fall?’

 

In the new Tory ‘blue wall’ polls show it turning back to red, with Labour ahead in 36 of the 45. I didn’t call these Tory MPs ‘Temporary’ for no reason

What is clear is that whether it’s No Deal or a thin deal, it won’t be Johnson’s fault, it never is.

It will be the intransigence of the EU’s, and woe betide anyone who tries to blame the hardliners on his own backbenches, who even at the eleventh hour still cry betrayal, and who are a hundred times more stubborn.

When, in January, the ports descend into chaos, it will be the hauliers’ fault for not having their paperwork ready. If export businesses collapse, or manufacturers pull out of Britain, the government will try and bury the lost jobs with those lost due to the pandemic.

Where does this leave the ‘Leave’ voters, some still ardent, others perhaps regretful who voted for the forthcoming tsunami?

Whilst some ‘Remainers’ agonise over could they have acted differently and secured a softer Brexit, we hear only silence from Leave voters.
 

they wanted to be Norway, not even in their worst nightmares did they contemplate No Deal

 

In those dark days under Theresa May they wanted to be Norway, not even in their worst nightmares did they contemplate No Deal and the potential 60% reduction in medical supplies that it might mean.

It is their actions, or rather inaction that has left us hostage to the hard right. Many didn’t vote for a Hard Brexit, nonetheless, most have just buried their heads in the sand rather than admitting their mistake.

Putting aside the left behind who voted for Brexit as they were fooled into believing it would improving their lot, there are those in the leafy suburbs and southern shires who, not for one moment, thought Brexit would impact them, or that we might have the army airlifting their life-saving vaccines into a potentially gridlocked country.

Some must be regretting their choice as polling indicates a swing towards the view that Brexit was a mistake, although few have come out and admitted it.
 

polling indicates a swing towards the view that Brexit was a mistake

 

For the hardliners Brexit cannot be hard enough, nothing short of the island behind towed further away from continental Europe will satisfy them. Whilst I accept that parliament has a responsibility to implement the verdict of the referendum, the onus must be on those MPs who supported Leave to clear-up the mess they have caused.

They let the country go down the path of national self-destruction, and they are the most likely to seek someone else to blame for their selfishness.

One of the key tenets of Brexit for many Leave voters was immigration, as a result the government, via uber-hawk Priti Patel, plan to crackdown on it.

On the 1^st January immigrant workers will be required to earn a minimum £25,600 as skilled workers, meaning that businesses such as care home, who rely on overseas workers ⁽¹⁾ will no longer be able to recruit them, the net result is that our old people will lose out.
 

the net result is that our old people will lose out

 

Statistically, in parts of south-east England, up to a third of care workers come from the EU, while staff turnover can be as high as 50% a year. Overall, EU workers make up 8% of care staff in England, some areas have vacancy rates of 25%.

Whilst the government championed the NHS during the pandemic, it saw care home as someone else’s responsibility, and other than dumping thousands of elderly patients on them to free-up hospital beds, they did their best to pretend care homes didn’t exist. Only when residents began dying in droves were the homes given PPE supplies.

Denying homes the staff they desperately need will mean that many will have to close. Alternatively, they will have to pay a wage in-line with the new rules, meaning that the fees charged will increase, putting an increased burden on already underfunded and overstretched local authorities.

Other than pandering to the racist instincts of many Brexiters, and enabling Priti Patel to look the tough home secretary much loved by Tory voters, the ban is yet another government own goal.

The economy needs skilled workers, the new rules raise our labour costs which will be debilitating to labour-intensive industries, such as catering and hospitality, health, and welfare. All of which are on their knees due to the pandemic.

Aside for the diehard Brexiters, many of those ‘persuaded’ to vote Leave were those I regularly describe as the left behind.

This was their revenge for the de-industrialisation of the Thatcher governments, with coup de grace applied by Cameron and Osborne in the form of austerity.
 

‘Here, have a dollar

In fact, no brotherman here, have two

Two dollars means a snack for me

But it means a big deal to you..’

 

Thatcherism casts a long shadow over British politics since 1979, whilst socialism might be an antidote to its causes and effects the electorate has continued to shun it. The question is why?

Thatcherism fundamentally changed British politics; ‘it diminished the power of the unions in a shrinking manufacturing sector, and the careful cultivation of a new individualism by the right, were making the old politics of class solidarity seem old-fashioned and electorally unappealing.’

This resulted in Labour trying to re-establish itself by moving away from its traditional policies towards the liberal and aspirational politics of equal opportunities, and the rights of minorities.

Whilst doing this Labour assumed that its traditional base would follow, having nowhere else to go.

Labour’s change of direction is now itself outdated, as evidenced by Brexit, Trump and a 48% C2DE ⁽²⁾ vote for the Conservatives at the last election (compared to 33% for Labour).
 

Class is back at the forefront of political debate

 

Class is back at the forefront of political debate. Centre-left parties in the west, now predominantly professional and middle class, have been turned on by the blue-collar base they were founded to serve.

This is what populism feeds off, these are the left behind to which I constantly refer.

An example I recently came across was Barking and Dagenham; in 2000, Ford, for 70-years the major employer, announced plans to stop car production at its Dagenham plant, leading to the loss of secure, high-status blue-collar work.

In the subsequent decade, the area saw the sharpest rise in immigration of any London borough. Much of that was a result of the expansion of freedom of movement to the new EU member states in the east.

The combination of the unemployment caused by Ford ceasing production and increased immigration meant that the community lost the continuity and familiarity it had valued, which, in turn had generated a sense of security, conviviality and belonging, this malaise saw the brief rise of the BNP in the mid-2000s, making headway with their openly racist politics.

The modern left no longer seems to understand working-class communities such as Barking and Dagenham, this has fuelled the rise of opportunists such as Trump and Farage.

Today’s Labour party is viewed as the home of ‘wokedom’, dominated by ‘middle-class, Guardian-reading bohemians and pseudo-intellectuals … pursuing an uber-liberal, youth-obsessed, London-centric agenda.’

The net beneficiary of this loss of direction by Labour are Brexiters who, in isolation, would never have won a majority in the referendum.
 

the left behind were unrepresented and they became his shock troops

 

This is where the ‘skill’ of Cummings lay, he understood and recognised that the left behind were unrepresented and they became his shock troops, Johnson was simply a naked opportunist jumping on the bandwagon.

The hardliners are forcing the country to sacrifice prosperity and wealth in exchange for sovereignty, with No Deal comprising the highest price for the largest portion of sovereignty.

The cost, the exchange rate will be determined by the difference in trading volume between the UK on its own and the combined weight of 27 EU countries.

Of course, this wasn’t how it was meant be, ‘Leave’ told us that taking back our sovereignty was free, Brexit was all upside.
 

‘Leave’ told us that taking back our sovereignty was free, Brexit was all upside

 

They argued that EU membership was a drag on Britain, an unwanted cost we could stopped whenever and the money redirected to better causes.

Secondly, they believed we held all the cards, Europeans would be so loathe to lose access to British markets that they would agree to continue something like the old service without charge.

Neither of which turned out to be true.

The reality is different, restricted access to European markets will take a toll on jobs and growth.

As I wrote earlier, the EU and the pandemic will be the scapegoats of choice. There is also the near certainty of a springtime bounce-back in GDP which will be sold to the public as the result of Brexit, when, in fact, it is simply a rebound from the C-19 induced slump.

The ongoing games of brinkmanship practised by Johnson might impress some of his domestic audience, but to overseas onlookers is only confirms the stupidity of Brexit.

Our reputation as a level-headed, pragmatic country and reliable ally, has been sacrificed at the altar of sovereignty.

On the 1^st of January a minority of little Englanders will be waving their pathetic paper flags while the rest of us queue up for food that is in short supply because of their selfishness and delusions of empire and grandeur.

Oh, I forget, we will likely be in lock-down after the 5-day Christmas orgy, so we won’t be allowed out.

Enjoy it while you can!
 

‘(I was dreamin’ when I wrote this

Forgive me if it goes astray)

But when I woke up this morning

I could have sworn it was judgment day’

 

Notes:

1. As readers will know my aunt, who died of C-19, was in a care home. Well over 70% of the staff were immigrants
2. Typically C2DE describes working ‘class people’. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NRS_social_grade#:~:text=non%20working,class%20and%20working%20class%2C%20respectively

 

When I saw the title Philip had chosen this week there were pangs of regret; by reprising the title of his first article fully four and a half years ago, it felt as though the journey was actually coming to some kind of conclusion.

So much has happened in the interim, so many things have changed, that I half expected one of the lyrics to be delivered by a fat lady singing (if you’re still allowed to say that?).

However, given that our expectations are being managed in preparation for an ‘Australian Deal’ that will disadvantage us in so many ways, it is inconceivable that this will not rumble on as the seismic economic and political shockwaves permeate every aspect of our future lives.

When former Aussie PM Malcolm Turnbull warns Boris to ‘Be careful what you wish for’ it suggests there could be storm clouds brewing over the ‘broad, sunlit uplands’ promised by Brexiteers.

Philip has tackled issues of inequality, and the potential for great economic hardship often over the life of this column, but now it appears that we will have to face them with a covid-sized monkey on our back.

The question mark over Tory party unity is inevitable – a cabinet of intellectual midgets, over-promoted in return for their loyalty, fending off those that believe that any privation (for others) is justified if ‘sovereignty’ is restored; all the time with a Farage-shaped crow on their shoulder.

The long shadow of Thatcherism is something that Philip has explored often, and his tale of Barking and Dagenham is fascinating; maybe the tectonic plates of party politics only push up new peaks when they collide; when they seek to avoid each other maybe they just get worn down or run out of space.

Lyrically, I’m claiming something of a victory this week; straight from Jim Steinman’s ‘drafts’ file – four out of five ain’t bad. However in line with current government policy on honesty and transparency I’m claiming a full house – entries strictly according to tier 3 guidelines.

First up ‘without doubt style over substance’ 1pt for Spandau Ballet, 3pts for ‘To Cut a Long Story Short’ and a bonus 5pts if you can ‘tell me how they got their name?’*

Next, ‘some classic 70s electronic music from the masters’ 1pt for Kraftwerk and five for ‘Endless Europe’. Strange boys.

Then ‘perhaps too talented for punk and often likened to the Doors’ 3pts for The Stranglers and three for ‘European Female’; fourth, ‘highly acclaimed 80s hip-hop out of Atlanta, politics beat, and rhythm’ and I’m waving to the crowd – a big favourite 5pts apiece for Arrested Development and ‘Mr Wendal’.

Last, but by no means last, ‘amazing showman, he just ‘had it” – and unfortunately he did – a brace apiece for Prince and ‘1999’

_{*variously, the twitching of prisoners hanged in Spandau Prison or the ‘dance’ performed by those shot in the shins by rapid fire from Nazi Spandau machine guns. True.} 

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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