Heroes: ‘They Think It’s All Over….’ 

 

‘You that never done nothin’ 

But build to destroy 

You play with my world 

Like it’s your little toy’ 

 
 
Labour has had a lead in the polls big enough to secure a substantial commons majority for the last year. Proof of voters discontent is endorsed by the government losing 11 out of the last 12 byelections, many is supposed safe seats. 

The Tories, after 13-yrs in power look tired, lost and clueless, with factional in-fighting to the fore. The only things that keeps Sunak in a job is the party’s realisation that another change cannot even be contemplated. 

Everything points to a Labour victory. Or, is the crisis in Gaza the ‘black swan’ event that changes everything?   

The Labour leader, Keir Starmer is coming under pressure to call for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, and one of Labour’s most senior Muslim politicians said it was the best way to avoid further ‘devastating loss of life‘. 

‘I join the international community in calling for a ceasefire,’ he said, arguing it would avoid more civilian casualties, allow aid to reach those in need and allow more time to avoid the conflict escalating further.  

Khan acknowledged Israel’s right to defend itself, targeting those responsible for what he called the terror attack on 7 October and seeking to free hostages, but: ‘No nation, including Israel, has the right to break international law.’ 
 

‘is the crisis in Gaza the ‘black swan’ event that changes everything?’  

 
Khan’s views are shared by C.25% of Labour MPs who have publicly called for a ceasefire in Gaza, contrary to the party’s official line, including two frontbenchers. 

About 40 Labour MPs have signed a commons motion, condemning the massacre of Israeli civilians by Hamas, saying this does not ‘justify responding with the collective punishment of the Palestinian people‘, and calling for a ceasefire. 

Among those who have demanded a ceasefire by other means is Yasmin Qureshi, the shadow equalities minister, who spoke out at prime minister’s questions on Wednesday but has not yet been disciplined. 

‘This is collective punishment of the Palestinian people in Gaza, for crimes they did not commit. How many more innocent Palestinians must die before the prime minister calls for a humanitarian ceasefire?’ 

When Sunak replied, emphasising both Israel’s right to defend itself and the importance of doing everything possible to help innocent Palestinian civilians, MPs knew the question had, in reality, been more awkward for Qureshi’s own leader Keir Starmer, than for the PM. 

The official Labour view is that the party supports a US  – UN-backed idea for humanitarian ‘pauses’,  designed to temporarily stop the bombardments by Israel, and halt rockets from inside Gaza, to allow aid to enter, civilians to flee and hostages seized by Hamas to be released. 

Despite, the party line, many Labour MPs are under pressure from constituents expressing worry about the official line. The cause of which appears to be an LBC interview during the Labour conference earlier this month in which Starmer said Israel had the right to cut off power and water to Gaza. Days later, he clarified that his answer was only intended to be about Israel’s wider right to self-defence: ‘It is not and never has been my view that Israel had the right to cut off water, food, fuel or medicines. International law must be followed.’  

Unfortunately, in a world on 24/7 news his clarification appeared slow, and the crisis deepened during that week. ‘He made a terrible, terrible mistake and he took far too long to correct it‘, says one Labour frontbencher. 
 

‘Starmer said Israel had the right to cut off power and water to Gaza’

 
As a result, Starmer is now firefighting, desperately trying to prevent the strains developing into a crisis, just at a point in the political cycle when he had appeared to have the party solidly behind him. 

Dozens of senior MPs report having had ‘very difficult’ meetings with angry constituents all week, particularly Muslim supporters, but also normally loyal party figures who believe Israel has been breaking international law in its response to the atrocities committed by Hamas. 

Shabana Mahmood and Wes Streeting, shadow cabinet members who would normally be counted among Starmer ultra-loyalists, privately warned Sir Keir that Labour risked sounding callously indifferent to the suffering in Gaza. A different member of the shadow cabinet reports: ‘If you are an MP in a heavily Muslim constituency, you are under intense pressure at the moment.’ 

Amid the panic there are claims that Starmer’s position could cost the party up to as 30 seats at the general election. Labour MPs with large proportions of Muslims in their constituencies are getting highly anxious. ‘I take it very seriously,’ says one. ‘They feel that we haven’t understood their hurt and pain in the way we did for Jewish people.’ 

Demands for a ceasefire will likely grow louder as Israel expands its ground operations in Gaza. The idea of a ceasefire resonates with many Labour members, whereas allies of Sir Keir see the calls for one as virtue-signalling by a British politician who has no influence over either Hamas or Israel. As one senior Labour MP said, ‘What is happening in Gaza is unspeakably awful. No one wants anybody to die, but calling for a ceasefire is ridiculously stupid. Hamas are going to carry on fighting and so are the Israelis.’ 

A member of the shadow cabinet who is close to the Labour leader observes that it is ‘easy for backbenchers and regional mayors’ to make ‘not credible‘ demands for a ceasefire, but, for an aspiring PM, Starmer risks appearing unserious should he to follow suit. ‘We’re not dealing with two rational state actors. We’re dealing with a terrorist organisation and an Israeli government which is threatening to blast Gaza to smithereens.’ 

One of Starmer’s key tenets in approaching the electorate  is that he has made Labour fit for government because he leads a ‘changed party‘, ridding it of the previous hard left influence. There are concerns that, if this continues,  they will seek to exploit this crisis and reassert themselves, resulting in a loss of respect from voters. 
 

‘We’re dealing with a terrorist organisation and an Israeli government which is threatening to blast Gaza to smithereens’

 
Starmer has a difficult choice to make; there is no stance that will find universally support within the party, in effect he is at the mercy of events which are beyond his control.  

In truth Sunak position is little different, except that the party appears united in its support for Israeli action. He has no real means of meaningfully influence the outcome of this conflict, other than siting politely alongside America. 

One member of the shadow cabinet summed up the situation succinctly: ‘What the Labour party has to say has absolutely zero influence on events.’  

Labour know needs that it is futile to become devoured by bitter divisions over questions that it no way of resolving. 

Over in the blue corner, the PM, having given the world his views on Gaza, turns his attention back to the UK. In this his week’s king’s speech and autumn statement Sunak will attempt to set the narrative for the next election, picking out key themes and drawing dividing lines between the Tories and Labour. 

‘Think long-term decisions, stuff that politicians have ducked. We will grip and take long-term decisions to put Britain on a better course,’ says one Downing Street insider. 

The problem for Sunak is that politically difficult long-term decisions rarely enthuse an electorate. 

Sunak will likely have an eye on saving funds for potential bribes tax cuts before the election, meaning that whatever he offers in the king’s speech will be done on the cheap. In addition, there are internal factions to consider; the right wants tax cuts, whilst the centre is fearful over the PMs lurch to the right on migration. 

Areas reported to be under consideration for new legislation include crime and justice, transport, smoking, housing, banning conversion therapy, mental health, and anti-boycott (not the batter). 

One key area that will feature as Sunak seek to differentiate the party from Labour is the country’s green transition. Key within this will be the expansion of North Sea oil and gas exploration, as well as pro-car policies. 

There is an expectation of legislation to usher in a new annual system for awarding oil and gas licences, despite the UK’s commitments to move away from fossil fuels and reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. 

For the motorist there is expected to be legislation making it more difficult for local authorities to introduce 20mph speed limits or supposedly unpopular schemes such as Ulez. 
 

‘This is all part of Sunak’s September U-turn on green policy influenced by narrowly retaining Boris Johnson’s old seat in Uxbridge’

 
This is all part of Sunak’s September U-turn on green policy influenced by narrowly retaining Boris Johnson’s old seat in Uxbridge, and is aimed at winning over voters worried that green policies would add to the cost of living. 

To date this has been a conspicuous failure, with a recent Opinium poll for the Observer, showing that they remain 15 points adrift of Labour. Despite this, it appears that Sunak intends to double down in the hope that he can create ‘wedge issues’ with Labour. 

Labour correctly feel that legislation of this sort is almost entirely for political reasons. One senior opposition figure said: ‘Many of these are not bills that are even necessary, nor does the government think they will ever come on to the statute book. They will be there because they want to be able to ask us: do you dare oppose this or not?’ 

When scrutinised, the proposals for expanding North Sea make no practical sense. Analysis shows in granting new licenses in the last 13-yrs has led to the discovery of very small amounts of gas, the equivalent of just 9-weeks’ worth of typical usage across the country. 

Data from Uplift, an NGO that supports the transition from fossil fuel production, – shows that hundreds of North Sea licences have been issued since the Conservatives came to power in 2010. However, this has led to the discovery of only five new oil and gas fields and enabled a further seven previously discovered fields to be developed. 
 

‘An estimated 6 million households in this country now can’t afford to heat their homes in winter, and bills are likely to stay high for the rest of the decade’

 
To date, just 16-days’ worth of gas has been produced from them, and 50% of this has been produced by the Sillimanite gas field, which is 30%-owned by Russian gas giant Gazprom, and has been exported to the Netherlands. 

After five decades of drilling, the North Sea’s dwindling reserves, which are largely (70%) oil, mean significant new discoveries are unlikely. 

Tessa Khan, executive director of Uplift, said: ‘An estimated 6 million households in this country now can’t afford to heat their homes in winter, and bills are likely to stay high for the rest of the decade. Does this government care, or is it more concerned with playing political games with energy policy?’ 

Sunak’s apparent desperation proves what I wrote earlier; The Tories, after 13-yrs in power look tired, lost and clueless, with factional in-fighting to the fore. There appeared to be little, or nothing in his plans that address the real issues; the economy, the cost-of-living crisis, and the wealth gap. 

The election appears to be Labours to lose. 
 

‘No religion 

No relief 

No old wisdom 

No belief’ 

 
Things just seem to get more knotty, both home and abroad, and nothing I say will improve Philip’s excellent commentary or preamble:

‘A somewhat reflective piece as the crisis in Gaza continues to escalate.

In reality, there is nothing Britain can meaningfully do. Whatever global influence we had finally expired after Suez, we are now, at best, America’s staunchest ally.

If this renders Sunak powerless then it’s worse still for the Labour leader. There is absolutely no upside for him, on the downside he has to ensure it doesn’t leave the party split and riven with factional infighting. If this occurs the party runs the risk of losing credibility in the eyes of the electorate, and undoing all that Starmer has sought to achieve in his time as leader.

In some ways his position is being worsened by people such as the home secretary, Suella Braverman. A gob that sees no boundaries, always ready to make incendiary comments, that are often ill-judged, and at worst incorrect.

She has now angered many peace campaigners; speaking after a Cobra meeting chaired by Rishi Sunak yesterday, Braverman said: “We’ve seen now tens of thousands of people take to the streets after the massacre of Jewish people, the single largest loss of Jewish life since the Holocaust, chanting for the erasure of Israel from the map.

“To my mind there is only one way to describe those marches: they are hate marches.”

Her words appear to be a reference to the chant “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free”.

The slogan has been used for decades by pro-Palestinian campaigners and refers to the territory between the River Jordan and the Mediterranean Sea in historic Palestine.

Braverman repeated a previous demand that police officers should take a “zero-tolerance approach to antisemitism”.

Scotland Yard told the Observer last week it was unlikely to arrest those who chanted the slogan at the march, knowing this would mean detaining thousands, some of whom see it as innocently calling for Palestinian self-determination.

Braverman’s comments were described as irresponsible and careless by the shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper. “The home secretary has a responsibility to make it easier for the police to tackle hate crime and extremism while reassuring different communities who are deeply distressed by events in the Middle East not to use rhetoric carelessly in a way that makes the job of the police much harder”.

“Antisemitic and Islamophobic hate crime and the glorification of terrorism need to face the full force of the law. At the same time work is needed to rebuild community cohesion, to recognise the distress people are feeling about the Hamas attacks and the humanitarian emergency in Gaza, and to pull communities together at this difficult time.”

This isn’t about religion, it’s about land, as is the case with most wars. In the Ukraine Putin is trying to take back what he thinks is his, based on the fact that it was once part of Russia.

Clearly, Putin is wrong. In Palestine, who knows. Certainly not us (the British), we made a hash of it almost 100-years ago

Lyrically, we start with Bob Dylan and “Masters of War”, to finish we have the oft overlooked Gary Numan and “Sister Surprise”. Enjoy!

@coldwarsteve
 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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