Heroes: ‘Heaven Knows I’m Miserable Now’ 

 

‘I was looking for a job, and then I found a job 

And heaven knows I’m miserable now’ 

 

This weeks YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph doesn’t make enjoyable reading if you are a Tory. The poll predicts a 120-seat Labour majority, with the Conservatives retaining only 169 seats, 196 fewer than their 2019 total, with Labour on 385, the LibDems 48 and the SNP 25. 

 
Clearly, this would be a disaster for the Conservatives, one that would see resulting in 11 current cabinet ministers losing their seats, among them Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps and Gillian Keegan.  

Without wishing to cast doubt on YouGov, the Telegraph does appear to have a poorly hidden agenda which is to push the party further to the right on immigration, a move that will dismay many centrist Tories, and would be unlikely to stop the rot. 

YouGov worked with the Tory peer David Frost, who contributed an opinion piece arguing that the only way back from the brink for the party was to go much harder on immigration, seeking to tempt former Tory voters who are backing the Nigel Farage-founded Reform UK. 

Frost wrote; ‘The big problem is immigration, legal as well as illegal. That’s why this week’s vote on Rwanda is so important.’ 

The Telegraph suggests that Reform votes would play a part in the 96-losses for the Conservatives, the difference between a catastrophic loss and a hung parliament. The message is clear: copy Reform, notably on small boats and on migration more generally. 

The problem with this analysis is that it assumes all these seats would be retained IF every single Reform vote went to the Conservatives. 
 

‘The poll predicts a 120-seat Labour majority, with the Conservatives retaining only 169 seats’

 
Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said, ‘the spin put on it by Frost and friends is something else altogether‘. 

‘Essentially, this is a laughably transparent attempt to scare Tory MPs into allowing the party, on the equally batty basis that immigration and woke are more important to voters than the economy and the NHS, to be pushed and pulled even further to the right – and the tragedy is that it might just work.’ 

The mere fact that a fringe party like Reform, one that is highly unlikely to win any seats, can, and is, having such an impact government policy show how far the parties have fallen. It was no different with its predecessor, UKIP, who had an equally disproportionate impact with Brexit, and the 2019 election. 

It is well documented that the Tory’s are as terrified of Reform today as they were of UKIP in the years following their 2010 electoral success. The prime reason for this is that it impacts Tory votes more than Labour, and for the first-time there is a second party of the right. 

However, in 2019 red wall seats turned blue, partly because The Brexit party (formerly UKIP now Reform) stood aside. More importantly the Tories had found Boris Johnson, their own Farage, equally adept in half-truths, equally glib, but a communicator who people believed spoke for them. 

Today, many of the same people feel betrayed, forgotten. They had traditionally voted Labour but they felt that Labour’s citycentric, ‘trendy’ ideas offered them nothing, and Johnson hasn’t delivered what he promised, I.E., levelling-up. 

These former Conservative voters from the ‘red wall’ seats such as Heywood and Middleton, Great Grimsby and Dudley North, aren’t planning on expressing their exasperation with the state of Britain by voting Labour. Instead, they are tempted by Reform.  

Reform is currently attaining around 10% in opinion polls. While unlikely to win seats of their own, by attracting former Tory voters Reform could play the role of spoiler, costing the Tories an additional 30-seats. 

What then is attracting voters to the shape-shifting party? 
 

‘When you see the record-breaking profits [of energy companies] it’s like a kick in the nuts.’

 
Unsurprisingly, immigration was high on their list, with the UK described as a ‘soft touch‘.  Others complain about hotels being full housing asylum seekers, or that their GP surgery funds being spent on translation rather than patients’ medical care.  

There was a sense that politicians didn’t care or even wanted higher immigration to keep wages low. Those wanting to reduce immigration supported an Australian-style points system, meaning that we could still attract the seasonal, NHS and care workers they all felt were needed. They seemed unaware or unconvinced that the government had introduced exactly that. 

However, their prime concern was the cost-of-living crisis. Some had started staying-in bed to keep warm, others worried about running out of money before payday. 

One said; ‘When you see the record-breaking profits [of energy companies] it’s like a kick in the nuts.’ Another  fumed at ‘multinational corporations making billions and billions in profit and hiding their money offshore’. Or, the public suffer while politicians’ ‘mates are doing well‘. 

Interestingly, when you put immigration to one side, they were more akin to hardcore Jeremy Corbyn supporters, rather than voters tempted to back the populist right. 

Another target was politicians. On Rishi Sunak, it was how could  someone ‘worth a billion dollars‘ understand working people’s concerns. One summed-up the situation rather well, she had ‘broken ranks’ in 2019 to vote Tory but under Sunak the party weren’t ‘looking after ordinary working-class folk’. 

As I have feared and written, ‘light-blue’ Keir is just that; dismissed as ‘more of the same’, a ‘Red Tory‘.  

Saving the best to last, two politicians did get better reviews. 
 

‘although the former PM had been ‘extremely naughty‘ she still had a soft spot for him’

 
Boris Johnson’s judgment was called into question as he had worked with Dominic Cummings. Another felt that although the former PM had been ‘extremely naughty‘ she still had a soft spot for him. He was described as ‘refreshing‘ and preferable ‘any day‘ to Sunak.  

The other was, of course, Nigel Farage, described as ‘down to earth‘. Another, plainly more gullible than the rest, was disappointed she hadn’t seen the Brexit £350m, but said she’d forgive Farage and give him another chance. 

The conclusion is equally distressing and interesting: 
 

• The absence of a Johnson or Farage figure went to the heart of the group’s worries about voting Reform. No one could name Richard Tice, the current Reform leader, 
• At least half of the group felt that even if they liked Reform a vote for them would just let Labour in.  
• Some were happy to waste their vote ‘to show she didn’t want to vote for other parties’  
• Some were ‘done with Labour and the Conservatives‘. 

The fact that people are prepared to overlook the £350m a week NHS lie, to see a wholly discredited PM, effectively ‘convicted’ of multiple lies to parliament and everybody else, shows how far the political classes have sunk. 
 
Both Johnson and Farage are about establishment as you can get; the former was Eton and Balliol College, Oxford, the latter attended Dulwich College, a fee-paying private school in south London. Yes, they may have a witty line in ‘blokey, pubey’ conversation, but they are neither of the people or for the people. They are very much a product of thinktanks and people in the shadows seeking mouthpieces for their own self-interests. 
 

‘They are very much a product of thinktanks and people in the shadows seeking mouthpieces for their own self-interests’

 
As much as I hate to admit it, Farage does at least have a sense of vision. A mission. However, all he offers is populism, which works in opposition but not in government. As was written, ‘ideas without responsibility‘. He has far more influence shouting from the sidelines, and trying to mould a shattered Conservative party in his own image. 

Listening to Reform the Tories are basically Communists in disguise, and Labour offer ‘Starmergeddon’, culturally pillaging, and bankrupting the country by investing in the NHS and worrying about climate change. ‘Net zero was just for woke pussies’.  

Reform offer the impossible dream; tax cuts on a scale unimagined even by Liz Truss and a 5% cut to all public services. All immigrants would be kicked out, and woe betide those malingerers on disability benefits. 

In reality, what we seeing with Johnson, Farage and Reform is little different to the US with Trump. As Bernie Sanders wrote; ‘We’re looking at a series of extraordinary crises. Climate: it’s up in the air whether the world community will make the cuts in carbon emissions to provide a habitable planet for our grandchildren. The growth of oligarchy: a small number of extremely wealthy people control the economic and political life of billions. Democracy: under severe threat from those capitalising on people’s fears.’ 

Whereas once he was ridiculed for such disquieting rhetoric, denounced as a firebrand, a rabble-rouser, now the New Yorker says, ‘reality has endorsed Bernie Sanders‘. 
 

‘The challenge we face is to be able to show people that government in a democratic society can address their very serious needs. If we do that, we defeat Trump. If we do not, then we are the Weimar republic of the early 1930s.’ 

 
As in the case in the UK, Sanders doesn’t ascribe the rise of Trump solely to a lumpen mass of redneck working-class Americans, deplorables to borrow a phrase. ‘I do not believe that all of Trump’s supporters are racist or sexist or homophobes. I think what’s going on in this country is a belief that the government is failing ordinary Americans.’ 

Trump is merely doing what his ilk are doing the world over – capitalising on the anxieties and struggles of the people. ‘Trump comes along and says, ‘I’ll be your strong guy, I’ll deal with all your anxieties – immigration, transgender issues, race – I’ll be there for you.’ 

Interestingly, Sanders reserves much of his sharpest criticism for the Democratic party, denouncing the party establishment as a ‘consultant-driven, ad-producing election machine‘. The very same can be said of Labour. After the GFC there was an open-goal for them to shoot at, they missed totally. Instead they alienated the very people they should have been representing, allowing Farage and then Johnson to take the mantle of ‘representing the people’.    

Or, as Sanders wrote in his book;  it is ‘beyond pathetic’, that a phoney corporate hack like Trump should be able to present himself as the ‘champion of the working classes’, while the Democratic party stands back and cedes territory to him‘.  

I have long warned that we are returning to the politics of the 1930’s, however I am no match for the eloquent Sanders, therefore it is only right that he has the last word… ‘The challenge we face is to be able to show people that government in a democratic society can address their very serious needs. If we do that, we defeat Trump. If we do not, then we are the Weimar republic of the early 1930s.’ 
 

‘Well show me the way 

To the next whiskey bar’ 

 
A tough week at the office for the Tories, as a YouGov poll predicts meltdown at the polls for a party that has done so very much to deserve it; but litle to suggest that the toolmaker’s son has the wherewithal, or potentially the financial headroom, to deliver a radically different agenda

Life may be pretty grim for those in Struggle St, but just how short are people’s memories, when Johnson, Farage and Trump are remembered so wistfully; or are a few harmless porkies, and a prescription for  soma preforable to the grinding awfulness of reality?

Describing Boris as ‘extremely naughty’ could have come out of a tribute to Doug and Dinsdale Piranah from their adoring/petrified neighbours, but maybe a bit of arm around the shoulder, rabble rousing is the way forward; certainly ‘The Donald’ seems to be back on the horse, but if things pan out to deliver a run off between him and Sleepy Joe, asking if they are are really the best that can be found in a population of 336m, feels valid.

So, what was Philip thinking:

n light of recent polls and the impact of Reform who, despite polling only 10% continue to hog the headlines.

Clearly today’s YouGov poll shows almost total disillusionment with the Tories. It feels like they have reached an inflection point, one that could see them pivot hard-right. As I have written so often before, should this happen we will see a “major” party endorsing hitherto unimaginable policies. As a result the credibility of Reform only increases.

Considering all of this, there is a bigger picture. The mainstream parties have, in the eyes of a considerable percentage of the electorate, failed them. Disillusioned, neglected, forgotten, pick an adjective.

This is the ultimate price we are paying for the “Recession that never was” ( see my piece as Mr Bond). Central banks et al congratulated themselves on avoiding recession post the GFC, but the stats and data lied. For many, who went unnoticed until recently, the years post that crisis have been a struggle, real-time falling incomes, whilst rentiers benefitted from an asset boom.

Today extremist politicians will be the obvious beneficiary, convincing the disillusioned, neglected and forgotten that they care. They don’t, the beneficiaries will still be the rentiers.

Plus ca change.

Lyrically, we start with the Smiths and “Heaven Knows I Miserable Now”. To finish we revisit Weimar Germany with Bertolt Brecht with the “Alabama Song” as performed by luminaries such as the Doors and David Bowie. Enjoy!

@coldwarsteve
 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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