Heroes: Divided, Confused, and Leaderless 

 

‘Dressed like Thatcher, you must be living in a different world 

And your mother doesn’t know why you can’t look like all the other girls’ 

 
As I wrote last week the discussions over the NI Protocol look set to drag on, with the DUP and the Tory’s internal European Research Group (‘ERG’) digging their heels in over anything that resembles a workable compromise.  

Both Suella Braverman (Home Sec) and former PM, Boris Johnson, have urged Sunak not to drop potential powers to unilaterally override the NI protocol, and to use this as leverage.  

Johnson appears to be concerned that a successful deal will see the government ditch controversial legislation allowing the UK to unilaterally rip up some Brexit arrangements in the region. 

The Sunday Times quoted a friend of Johnson’s as saying: ‘His basic worry is that we took the powers in the bill and we are not using them, and we haven’t got as good a deal as we would have because we didn’t stick with it.’ 

Penny Mordaunt, who Sunak appointed as Commons leader, seemed to misunderstand where her loyalties should lay, saying that concerns reportedly raised by Johnson were a welcome reminder to Brussels of the threat that Britain could try to unilaterally override the Northern Ireland protocol. 

There has been persistent concern among Sunak’s allies that Johnson could attempt to derail a compromise with Brussels. Keeping the NI protocol bill, introduced by Johnson’s government and currently working its way through parliament, now appears to have become a key test for the former PM. 

With Johnson and the Tory right threatening to disrupt the deal, Keir Starmer is reported to have offered his party’s support in any parliamentary vote on the agreement; ‘My offer to the prime minister stands. If a deal is on the table, and it delivers for the UK, Labour will back it. He doesn’t need to go scrambling around to appease an intransigent rump of his own backbenchers who will never be satisfied with anything. Labour’s priorities are clear and uncompromising: country first, party second‘. 

There is the possibility that the deal might not require a Commons vote, but Downing Street is undecided, preferring to wait until a full agreement is on the table. There are already warnings from inside the government and among the most pro-Brexit wing of the Tory party that Sunak will face a political backlash if he tries to secure the deal on the back of Labour support. If Downing Street opts not to hold a vote, some MPs are already threatening to engineer one. 
 

‘There has been persistent concern among Sunak’s allies that Johnson could attempt to derail a compromise with Brussels’

 
One Whitehall insider said it would be ‘political suicide‘ for Sunak to rely on Labour. Meanwhile, a senior figure from the ERG warned: ‘It weakens him considerably. It’s proof … that he doesn’t command his party. That would go down extremely badly in parliament, but it would also go down very badly with the wider party, who would see that he is in a weak position.’ 

Senior Conservatives have questioned whether any deal that does not have the backing of the DUP would secure its ultimate objective, whilst government sources have stressed that the DUP will not be shown the text of the agreement before it is struck or granted a veto on the contents. For their part the DUP are threatening to boycott any power-sharing government in NI should they not get their way 

Braverman, a former chair of the ERG told the BBC: ‘The legislation that the government introduced is one of the biggest tools we have in solving the problem on the Irish Sea. It’s clear and it’s right that the PM is committed to finding a pragmatic solution to resolve these issues which are affecting the people of Northern Ireland, and that we find a solution that’s pragmatic and workable both for the EU and the UK.’ 

For their part the DUP are still their usual sullen self’s;  The DUP MP Sammy Wilson reiterated his party’s pledge that Sunak agreeing a deal with the EU without the consent of the party would mean a continued boycott of Northern Ireland’s devolved assembly.  

There were, he said, ‘barriers and hills to climb‘ for Sunak. The government had ‘gone into these negotiations with an attitude of defeat, almost’. 

David Jones, the deputy chair of the ERG, said: ‘The problem is that DUP has told No 10 that whatever they agree needs to meet the ‘seven tests’. 

‘One of those is that the people of Northern Ireland have to have a say in the laws that govern them, but it is hard to see how they do that without an entirely new agreement. What they are talking about now is some sort of new interpretation of the existing agreement, not a completely new one.’ 

As I wrote in my very first article, ‘Brexit, the never ending story‘, the whole Brexit saga continues to pull the Tories in different directions, making governing for whoever is leader this week, all but impossible.  

Historically, one of the main reasons that partition of Ireland lasted was because trade and citizenship were left fluid, as both sides of the border were partners in the European single market.  

Brexit ended that, and Johnson’s fixation that Brexit meant leaving the single market required a trade protocol to keep Irish economic unity intact. The solution was a mess, but it helped Johnson rescue his oven-ready Brexit deal.  

Sunak and the EU have come up with proposals that will undo Johnson’s mess; red and green lanes will separate internal and ‘external’ Irish commerce, aided by digital technology. Regulatory disputes will be handled by a two-tier process under the European court of justice. This is perfectly sensible, trade is based on a compromise of sovereignty. 
 

‘The Protestant DUP are little more than an objectionable minority…whose sole contribution is division’

 
The Protestant DUP are little more than an objectionable minority, representing C.25% of the population, whose sole contribution is division; they divided their cities with walls and called for creationism to be taught in schools. Unfortunately, there unionism enthrals the Tory right and gave Theresa May a majority, albeit a very expensive one. 

The region voted against Brexit and barely half its voters are still firmly committed to the union with Britain. A poll a year ago showed a majority expects Irish reunification within a decade.  

The region is clearly changing, and this needs to be recognised. NI  deserves a workable settlement. The days of sullen protestants doing as they wish are history, as they should be. There needs to be an end to their minority veto in the Stormont assembly, a sectarian ‘power-sharing’ that has frozen the region’s government for almost 25-years.  

If we bow down to them yet again, we are letting a regional minority veto facets of our Britain’s overseas trade policy, and any improvement in our already ill-judged dealings with the EU over Brexit.  

From the ideology of Unionism, we turn to the governments ideology of the public sector, or what’s left of it after the twin assaults of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat austerity coalition of 2010-15, and then the extreme right-wing continuation of austerity from 2015. Today this manifests itself in the nasty and unnecessary squeeze on public sector pay. 

The reality is simple, they are hiding behind their imagined inflationary spiral to avoid giving decent pay awards to nurses, instead they are building up a war chest to fund tax cuts to ‘buy’ the next general election.  

In the vanguard of tax cutters are the ERG; yes, them again! Which leads us to commonly acknowledged disaster that is Brexit. 
 

‘They are building up a war chest to fund tax cuts to ‘buy’ the next general election’

 
And the bodies keep piling up; AstraZeneca is planning to expand in Ireland rather than the UK. And Nissan, a key employer in the Brexit supporting Sunderland is now reconsidering its commitment to the UK. 

There is a degree of irony in this. After Thatcherism decimated industry in the north, attracting foreign investment, especially from Japan, became central to our industrial policy. The incentive for overseas companies was our membership of the single market, which Thatcher assured investors we were committed to. This provided these businesses with entry into the broader European market. Now the ERG are undoing the policies of a leader they still revere. 

I mentioned earlier the cynicism of squeezing public sector pay to fund electoral bribe tax cuts before the next election, and with the Tory’s lagging in the polls, remedial action is central to their thoughts and actions. 

NI only serves to highlight how out-of-touch their right-wing is; the economy is shot, and public services don’t serve! What’s left? Immigration; poor wretches seeking sanctuary who can’t defend themselves! Served cold with a soupcon of culture wars. 

Iain Anderson, a senior Tory business leader, quit the party after learning from party insiders that Sunak plans to ‘ramp up the culture wars’ in his 2024 election strategy, whilst the party’s new deputy chair, Lee Anderson, said that the next election will probably be ‘a mix of culture wars and trans debate‘. 
 

‘Lee Anderson, said that the next election will probably be ‘a mix of culture wars and trans debate”

 

During his party leadership campaign, Sunak repeated vague claims about the left coming for ‘our women’, and has since made ‘small boats‘ central to his pledges in government. 

Whilst this may be too little too late, when compared to the real issues, it continues the right beloved ‘stab in the back theory’. For some voters, it means they can take stock of how little they have and be manipulated into blaming an immigrant housed temporarily who has even less. 

In many ways this is only a continuation of a narrative that found favour post-WW1; one that is finding favour via populism. Post-Johnson, both the rhetoric and the policies have escalated. Suella Braverman and Anderson are like hired thugs happy to push policies that others are too squeamish to acknowledge. Brexit not delivering can be blamed on immigrants, alongside human rights conventions and lefties. Governmental failure is now a weapons aided by the number of arrivals, small boats, hotels dedicated to their housing and the ‘alleged’ behaviour of asylum seekers harassing young girls, which, whilst unproven makes wonderful propaganda. 

All of this culminates in situations such as the attacks on a hotel housing asylum seeker in Knowsley, a predominantly white area where propaganda has fuelled racism, misinformation and deprivation. 
 

‘Suella Braverman and Anderson are like hired thugs happy to push policies that others are too squeamish to acknowledge’

 
Knowsley sounds a mess, but this isn’t due to immigrants. As the Guardian reported, in 2017 it became the first local authority in England to stop offering students A-level education, and it still offers only limited provision. It has among the highest rates of school absenteeism in England. The youngest person arrested after the riot outside the asylum seekers’ hotel this month was 13. 

‘Over the past decade, Knowsley council has lost 45% of its government funding, cut by £485 per person – more than double the average across England of £188’. The council has been hit harder by austerity than any other local authority in the country, and has been almost entirely overlooked by any levelling up plans. 

What this leaves is ‘multigenerational unemployment, a town centre desperate for rejuvenation and a microclimate of racism, isolation and urban myth about invading monsters’. 

The media are active in stoking these fires, the Daily Mail especially is a sea of anti-immigrant bilge. Then there is GB News and Nigel Farage, who is happy to make immigrants a central source of the country’s problems. The readers and listeners might not set fire to police vans, but they defend such actions as being an expression of people’s legitimate concerns.  

I have long warned about the rise of the far-right and racism, and I will continue to do so. As Hitler showed, economic decline, falling living standards, and unfilled political promises provide a fertile ground for extremists to exploit.  

Whatever happens in the next election the seeds of discontent are being sown each day. The real cause is ‘them and us’, ‘haves and have nots’, the wealth gap; only serious investment in struggling areas can change this. Without this there will continue to be hate speech and violence destroying our society. 
 

‘ Make the hell out of what you can see 

Maybe then you’ll not hang beside me’ 

 
Some familiar themes from Philip this week, but perhaps all the more gloomy on the basis that the direction of travel has been all too obvious, for all too long; but we kept on digging.

His preamble is one of the most powerful to date, and sets the scene better than I could hope to:

This week we continue with some familiar themes; the divisions within the Tory party, and the intransigence of the right regarding anything to do with Europe.

NI and anything to do with it seems to be a mess. Perhaps, I am simplistic, but minority rule seems to be the issue.

Immigration, and racism are also familiar themes, and I make no apology for that. Like the majority of Germans in the early 1930’s, I refuse to believe that we are a racist society per se. Sections of the media trumpet the racism of a minority of influential people, and have an increasing influence over sections of the electorate.

Older people, I believe, are scared and isolated by the changes they read about and it brings out the worst in them. Others cling onto these messages as providing scapegoats for their misfortune.

The cure is regional regeneration. It’s back to “them and us”, “haves and have nots”, the wealth gap. Society must become more equal.

This week is the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine. It’s terrible. Russia, under Putin, is a rogue state.

Whilst there is general condemnation of Russia’s actions, and Biden, this week, showed both commitment and diplomacy on his visit to Ukraine, I couldn’t help but wonder what the US reaction might have been had Trump stayed in office.

I read that Tucker Carlson, the ultra-conservative Fox News commentator, delivers a diet of punditry so pro-Putin flavours that some of it is used on Russian state television.

Whilst some of the more hysterical Republicans were defeated in the mid-term elections, with a resultant impact on Trump’s momentum, the basis of his foreign policy is embedded in the conservative mainstream. That is, scorning rules; affinity with demagogues; viewing western Europe as a decrepit relic, overrun with Muslim immigrants, and emasculated by “woke” ideology.

Unfortunately, similar views have osmosed in this country as part of the Brexit revolution.

In March 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea, Nigel Farage described the Russian president as the world leader he most admired. Eight years later, when Russia moved on to full-scale invasion, Farage blames Nato and the European Union for provocative expansions into Moscow’s back yard.

This is the narrative extolled by Putin who, in a speech this week explained at great length how the west started it.

The idea that western overreach provoked Russia to raid Ukraine for land also got an airing in the Brexit referendum, via Boris Johnson. He told a campaign rally that Kyiv’s decision to sign a trade partnership with Brussels had “caused real trouble” and that things had “gone wrong” in Ukraine because of EU meddling.

However, seeing a Churchillian moment he swiftly became an energetic support for Ukraine.

In Britain today we are displaying Putin-type behaviour; if we don’t like obligations under international law we can breach them “in a specific and limited way”, as Brandon Lewis, Johnson’s Northern Ireland secretary, argued of clauses in the internal markets bill that overrode the Brexit withdrawal agreement.

That is the idea behind the Northern Ireland protocol bill, currently stalled on its way through parliament.

Whilst hard-line Eurosceptics view it as a cudgel with which to beat concessions out of Brussels, Sunak realises that it corrodes trust with the EU, stains Britain’s reputation as a reliable partner – especially in Washington.

They are wrong. Sunak’s pragmatic approach has yielded more progress with the NI protocol than the bullying of his predecessors.

Lyrically I wanted to use Irish bands, however all the obvious choices, such as U2 and Van Morrison appall me. Instead we have my two favourites.

 We open with Derry’s finest, the Undertones and “Get Over You”, and close with My Bloody Valentine perfect “You Made me Realise”. Enjoy!

@coldwarsteve
 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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