Heroes: Deutschland, Deutschland….Oh Not Again, Surely! 

 

‘Eins, zwei, drei, vier 

Ideas can change the government 

But they never listen to our arguments’ 

 
Last week in, ‘Disappointed and Let Down’ I wrote about how voters politics has become contradictory and that parties, especially those on the left, had been slow to recognise this. 

However, in Germany their favourite ‘firebrand politician‘, Sahra Wagenknecht, perhaps recognising this phenomena, has launched a new party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – Reason and Fairness. Described as a ‘leftwing conservative‘ party,  their policies include combining job security, higher wages and generous benefits with a restrictive immigration and asylum policy. It is hoped by many that the BSW ‘could eat into the far right’s support‘. 

If the experience of neighbouring countries such as Denmark and the Netherlands is anything to go by, it seems unlikely that the new party will rescue working-class voters from the claws of the Alternative für Deutschland (‘AfD’). In fact, recent history suggest that it is more likely that her new party will strengthen the far-right agenda. 

The timing of the launch is opportune, as Germany is heading for its first two-year recession since the early 2000s. The current three-way governing coalition led by Olaf Scholz is deeply unpopular, with broad resistance building to an expected new round of austerity policies. Scholz’s party, the centre-left SPD, and the Greens are polling just 28%! 

A poll in September 2023 found that 20% of Germans ‘could imagine‘ voting for what was the (not yet founded) party. Supporting this fact, German political scientist Sarah Wagner recently argued, a significant part of the German electorate combines left-wing economic views with right-wing cultural views, but no German party offers such a ‘leftwing authoritarian‘ (or ‘leftwing conservative’) programme.  
 

‘Wagenknecht’s ‘anti-immigrant‘ and ‘anti-woke‘ discourse will only strengthen the mainstreaming of far-right talking points’

 
Historically, left-wing authoritarians tend to be less likely to vote. If they do vote they tend to favour the right, particularly when cultural issues such as immigration dominate the political agenda. As such Wagenknecht’s ‘anti-immigrant‘ and ‘anti-woke‘ discourse will only strengthen the mainstreaming of far-right talking points, typically this leads to more, not less, electoral support for the far right, – as in the most recent Dutch elections, in November 2023.  

So, while the Wagenknecht party will undoubtedly gain some good electoral results in 2024, it is very doubtful that it will transform the German political system. And rather than ‘saving democracy‘, as she has vowed to do, she is more likely to help to weaken it, by further mainstreaming and normalising far-right narratives and policies. 

The far-right threat is led by the AfD, which was founded in 2013. They started to gain traction in 2015 when C. 1m migrants and refugees arrived in Germany. The party entered the Bundestag for the first time in 2017, initially as the leading opposition party.  In August 2023, the party won its first mayoral post, in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. In December its candidate won another mayoral election in neighbouring Saxony. It is set to secure the most votes of any party at highly anticipated elections in three states in the autumn. 

The party campaigns on a  are virulently xenophobic platform, and has been aided by widespread dissatisfaction with Germany’s coalition government over its handling of the multiple challenges of Covid, Ukraine, the cost of living crisis and the green transition. Nationwide the party is polling at about 20%, rising to as high as 36% in some parts of the east, as the AfD has exploited this widespread insecurity and hardship for its own unpleasant ends. 
 

‘the AfD has exploited this widespread insecurity and hardship for its own unpleasant ends’

 
Concern has been compounded by renewed fears that the party represents a material threat to Germany’s postwar constitution. This month the Chancellor and his foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, joined thousands of marchers participating in a demonstration in Potsdam to ‘defend democracy’.  

Robert Habeck, the vice-chancellor and economics minister, said the danger the party posed to democracy had been gravely underestimated. 

The catalyst was the revelation that in November, senior AfD figures joined with other prominent far-right extremists in Potsdam to discuss a plan for forced mass deportations of migrants. It is alleged that  this included German citizens with migrant roots, if it was judged they did ‘not adapt to the majority society‘. Among those present was an adviser to the AfD’s co-leader, Alice Weidel, along with Tim Krause, the party’s district chair in Potsdam; and Ulrich Siegmund, the joint parliamentary chair in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. 

As more becomes known about the meetings, the cast of characters in attendance grows. Last week, the Werte Union, a self-described arch conservative grassroots movement within the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party, the CSU, admitted that two of its members had been in attendance. 

But the Werte Union, which seeks to restrict immigration, bolster the German military and reduce taxes, has admitted that the topic of ‘remigration‘ had been discussed. It said its members had been invited as private guests and not as representatives of the Werte Union. 
 

‘Werte Union, which seeks to restrict immigration, bolster the German military and reduce taxes, has admitted that the topic of ‘remigration‘ had been discussed’

 
The Werte Union’s chair, Hans-Georg Maaßen of the CDU, recently announced his plans to transform the movement into a party in its own right. The CDU is attempting to expel him. 

One of the key presentations was from Martin Sellner, the Austrian leader of the ethno-nationalist Identitarian movement, about the practicalities of carrying out mass deportation, referred to in far-right circles as ‘remigration‘. An emphasis was placed upon on how to implement the deportation policy in the event that the AfD came to power. 

According to reports from participants, business figures were present who donated money to the cause.  

These are now reports of another meeting, the Düsseldorf forum, which contained a mix of proven neo-Nazis and notionally respectable business people. Invitations to were issued by Gernot Mörig, a retired dentist who once led the right-wing extremist Association of Homeland Faithful Youth (BHTJ), and Hans-Christian Limmer, co-founder of high-street bakery BackWerk and a major shareholder in popular burger chain Hans im Glück and health food delivery service Pottsalat. Limmer, who did not attend the meeting, has left the latter two companies’ boards since the report was published. 

According to Correctiv(1), the AfD’s parliamentary group leader in Saxony-Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund, spoke about the need to change the streetscape of German towns and cities by putting foreign restaurants under pressure. Siegmund has insisted he attended the meeting only in a ‘private capacity‘, though a further report published on Thursday showed that he had turned up with his press officer, himself a former member of a right-wing extremist group. 

Christian Dürr, the pro-business FDP’s parliamentary group leader, drew parallels to the Nazi era and said the AfD had shown the extent to which it ‘rejects democracy‘. 
 

Christian Dürr…FDP’s parliamentary group leader, drew parallels to the Nazi era and said the AfD had shown the extent to which it ‘rejects democracy‘

 
A fledgling alliance of anti-far-right groups calling itself Hand in Hand, which so far includes more than 120 organisations, is planning nationwide demonstrations against the AfD, including a human chain around the Reichstag parliament building in Berlin, under the slogan ‘We are the firewall‘. 

Tareq Alaows, one of the organisers who has been building the alliance since the summer in reaction to the AfD’s rising poll ratings, told the newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung: ‘If the political parties can’t succeed in stopping the rightwing extremists, we have to create a human firewall against them.’ 

The Reichstag is a symbolic representation of the country’s commitment to democracy. In 1933 it was damaged by fire, which gave Adolf Hitler the excuse to have civil liberties suspended, paving the way for Nazi dictatorship. After reunification it once again became the country’s seat of parliament, and stands as an omnipresent reminder in the city of the need to protect democracy from tyrants. 

Clearly, policies such as this are in breach of the constitution, which outlaws discrimination on the grounds of ethnicity. The AfD’s leadership has distanced itself from the meeting, but failed to condemn those who attended. It is reported that the so-called ‘re-migration‘ plan was agreed in principle by participants, though there were doubts over its feasibility. 

The AfD might be the main far-right party in Germany’s, however their domestic intelligence agency has previously classified party organisations in eight of the country’s 16 federal states as either ‘proven to be right-wing extremist‘ or ‘suspected to be right‑wing extremist‘. 

There have been calls for the AfD party to be banned by the federal constitutional court, but it is felt that this could be problematic. Perhaps more importantly, the process would also run the risk of being counterproductive, reinforcing the AfD’s anti-establishment credentials at a time when it already has significant political momentum. 

At a minimum, the Potsdam affair underlines the need to keep the AfD out of any governing coalition.  

Like UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform, the AfD began life as a German variant of Euroscepticism, before pivoting to an extreme anti-immigration agenda, it needs to be defeated at the polling box to destroy any legitimacy it may have.  

The parallels with the UK are considerable, the AfD has become a populist outlet for a widespread sense of crisis. Addressing that will require greater ambition and imagination from a mainstream political class that sometimes appears overly determined to hang on to old economic orthodoxies.  

As I wrote in both ‘The Right Marches to the Tune of Anti-Immigration‘, and ‘Europe and the New Right‘, fascism is once more on the move. 

Whilst both articles considered mainly Europe, the US, with the lingering threat of a malevolent Trump ‘reflects, amplifies and popularises a regressive global trend towards authoritarian, totalitarian, dictatorial, nationalistic and religiously, ethnically and culturally majoritarian forms of right-wing governance‘. 

In the US and beyond, fascist leaders have a compelling appeal to those who distrust or feel betrayed by their leaders. Trump is the strong leader, vowing to defend and support the little guy and his threatened shibboleths of identity and community. In return, he demands a dictator’s unlimited power and fealty. 

He promises security, uniformity, conformity and social validation for the dominant majority at the cost of civic freedoms, legal accountability, independent media, diversity and minority rights.  

The voters that I described in ‘Disappointed and Let Down‘ want a strong, autocratic leader. Democracy, they say, has not delivered for them; and there are too many liberties, taken and assumed, in a too-woke world.  
 

‘Trump is the strong leader, vowing to defend and support the little guy and his threatened shibboleths of identity and community’

 
Trump appeals to the Christian right, as a saviour sent to stop their apocalyptic national decline. And vengeance, Trump vows in biblical vein, will be theirs. ‘I am your warrior. I am your justice. And for those who have been wronged and betrayed, I am your retribution,’ he declared last year.  

Russia’s voters, who accord Putin high approval ratings, broadly resemble America’s Trumpers in valuing charisma over character, preferring the strongman to the right man, and turning a blind eye to corruption and lies. Yet Russia is not and never was fully democratic. 

China’s Communist party presents a bigger challenge to the western liberal democratic tradition in that it actively projects its state capitalist model internationally while fiercely controlling people’s lives and cultivating a single national culture and identity. 

Germany, Italy and Hungary are, to differing degree fighting against a fascist revival. But unity of purpose is lacking. As in the US, parliamentary and public institutions are weak and discredited.  

It appears that the era of social democracy and liberalism will be replaced by a fascist nightmare. What price democracy. 
 
I hate to say, ‘I told you so’, but…… 
 

‘I was always looking left and right 

Oh, but I’m always crashing 

In the same car’ 

 
 

Notes: 

1. a German nonprofit investigative journalism newsroom 

‘It appears that the era of social democracy and liberalism will be replaced by a fascist nightmare. What price democracy’ – if that didn’t get your attention, I’m not sure what will; a powerful piece from Philip that paints a big picture of the march of the far right.

How about: ‘We could, in relatively short order, see the globe dominated by three dictatorships; Putin’s Russia, Zi’s China, and Trump’s America’; be afraid, be very afraid.

This week I cast my eye over Germany and the rise of the ultra-right-wing AfD.

The policies are extreme, seeking to force the mass deportations of migrants, including German citizens with migrant roots, if it was judged they did “not adapt to the majority society”.

With the Germans especially there is the sense of déjà vu, here we go again. But there are stark parallels with the UK. A deeply unpopular government, voters feeling that the mainstream parties have let them down and offering them no alternatives, set against the backdrop of the GFC, covid, Ukraine war, and the cost-of-living crisis.

I have long compared current politics to that of the 1930s, and we are seeing that being played out in Germany. The government joining with anti-fascist demonstrations, secret meetings to discuss “remigration”, and the left uniting, this time under the banner of “Hand in Hand”. I can’t help but wonder how long it will be before the left and right are fighting it out on the streets.

The difference this time compared to the 1930s is profound. There was never any likelihood of America turning to Fascism, this time around it is frighteningly likely. Once in power I can see Trump trying to dismantle much of the democratic state, and he has the Supreme Court majority to help.

We could, in relatively short order, see the globe dominated by three dictatorships; Putin’s Russia, Zi’s China, and Trump’s America.

Quite how that would play out is anyone’s guess.

Lyrically, we start with the Rakes and “Strasbourg”. A noughties indie band they were much fun and underrated. To finish we have Bowies’ “Always Crashing in the Same Car” from the album “Low”, part of the so-called Berlin trilogy. Enjoy!

@coldwarsteve
 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

Click on the link to see all Brexit Bulletins: