Heroes: A Poor Country Run For the Benefit of a Few 

 

‘And you know what he’s paid, 

You know that he’s paid the price,’ 

 
Brexit might only be 3-yrs old, but it was 40-yrs in the making. Put another way, many Brexiters never wanted to join. A hardcore such as Bill Cash, and John Redwood never wanted in. 

You can add to that the likes of Farage, et al. All are Colonel Blimp types, stiff-upper lips, we’re Brits, blood foreigners, etc., etc. 

Born on the playing fields of minor public schools, and chock full of British exceptionalism. For them Brexit wasn’t about making a better country, or more equal, it was about control and not being accountable to foreigners. You only have to listen to them, they don’t speak, they bark at you. 

What they needed was a spokesperson, one who could communicate with the common man they actually despise, and garner enough support to win the day.  
 

‘Born on the playing fields of minor public schools, and chock full of British exceptionalism’

 
In summary, Brexit was powered by a belief that leaving the EU would enable Britain to reclaim sovereignty from Brussels, lower immigration, and, as the Leave campaign slogan promised, ‘Take back control’ of the country’s borders and security 

Before moving on, let’s consider the events that led up to Brexit. 

Thatcher, whilst a believer and an active participant in the creation of the single market, sowed the seeds that led to Brexit. It was her policies that oiled the wheels of the wealth gap.   

The wealth gap which had been in decline post-WW2 began to grow and had the effect of polarising the nation. Deindustrialisation, the political project of Thatcherism to hollow out the unions and any semblance of effective class solidarity, bred bitterness and resentment.  

New Labour was, in many ways, a Thatcher tribute act. Consequently they never really got to grips with deindustrialisation and therefore never levelled-up the country, leaving the field clear for Nigel Farage. 

In addition, Labour supported the extension of the EU to 27 nations and, by not adopting the transitional immigration rules other countries took up, handed the initiative to the Brexiters. New Labour, perhaps cynically, saw easily imported eastern European labour as a quick productivity fix that boosted tax revenues.  

In essence they misjudged a section of the electorate, not realising how precarious the situation was for a swathe of voters. For them this was too much too quickly, economically, socially and culturally, especially when there was no enforcement of the minimum wage, little social housing, and increased on both the NHS and school places. Labour, rather than making the case for immigration, hoped that growth would overcome the tensions. Whilst New Labour had replaced old Labour, it wasn’t communicating with those in the red wall. 

Today Brexit still causes political turmoil. Labour, the party that ignored leavers now ignores remainers. 
 

‘Labour, the party that ignored leavers now ignores remainers’

 
The Tories, who seem to be constantly looking in the rear-view mirror for Farage, are seeing their worst fears confirmed as his ReformUK continue to progress in the polls. Without Johnson, the only politician who sees able to combat Farage’s populist touch, the temptation to adopt the politics of hard Brexit remains irresistible.  

Whilst current polls show remain in the ascendency, a repeat of the 2019 Tory upsurge could happen again as the right consolidates around an anti-Europe, anti-immigration agenda, as they seek to retain red wall voters. Whether this could deny Labour is uncertain, however, the most dynamic force in UK politics continues to be right-wing populism. 

Farage tweeted recently that ‘Britain is broke’. He should know. Brexit tipped us over the edge, but for Brexit to have happened, the country must have been broken. As I have said numerous times before, populists prosper when times are hard, providing the scapegoats and anti-politics rhetoric the ‘left behind’  want to hear.  

It is more than six years since the Brexit referendum and the term plus ca change still applies. Politically the traditional duopoly survives, preaching the same adversarial and short-term, zero-sum politics. It’s still ‘blue walls’ v red walls, cities against towns, old against young, those with qualifications against those with few. 

What still hasn’t truly forthcoming is a true outpouring of rage, and vengefulness against the cynical Brexit leaders who knowingly sold us snake oil and lies. That’s because remain voters are fair-minded unlike the myopic bigots who are leaver voters. 

Not only was Cameron a terrible PM with his policy of unnecessary austerity, his biggest crime was promising the referendum to placate his party and UKIP. Previously he referred to them as ‘fruitcakes‘, ‘loonies‘ and ‘closet racists‘, instead, in fear of UKIP, he opened the door and the lunatics took over the asylum. 
 

‘in fear of UKIP, he opened the door and the lunatics took over the asylum’

 
He either failed to understand, or misjudged their bigotry and myopia. They will never stop, for them it’s a crusade. When remain lost we were told, ‘the country has spoken‘; had it been leave that lost they would have just kept coming. 

Now, even after the won the day they can’t stop; the more harm their Brexit does, the more extreme versions they demand, chasing those impossible phantasms they mis-sold to the country. 

Irrespective of the continuing carnage Brexit is causing there will be no reversal. No Tory could ever contemplate it, and Labour are too frightened of the ‘red wall’ to raise the subject. In addition, Labour fear that raising the subject will allow Tory strategists to re-run Brexit at the next general election, as a distraction from the economy, the cost of living crisis and collapsed public services 

The best we can hope for is something along the lines David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, proposed; ‘a civilised friendship with Europe’. There was talk of reconnecting ‘a tarnished UK‘ with its closest allies, ‘for security and prosperity‘; ‘reducing friction‘ on trade; unblocking the Horizon scheme; strengthening student links and pledging a ‘clean power alliance‘. 

There has been a change in sentiment towards Brexit; 57% of people are in favour of re-joining, 43% want to stay out, while 49% think Brexit weakens the economy. 

However, this isn’t only buyer’s remorse, whilst C.20% of Brexiters have changed their minds, it is people who chose not to vote in the original referendum, and those who were too young to vote in 2016 but who are now eligible, that are anti-Brexit. Of the 18-to-24-year-olds of Generation Z, who came of age since 2016 C.79 per cent say they would vote to re-join the EU. 
 

‘the reality of Brexit was, it was just was a bunch of complete and total lies’

 
Clearly, the polls are worrying ‘leave’; Daniel Hannan, the ex-MEP and arch-purveyor of Brexit fabrications, is trying to scare defecting Brexit voters back. Writing in the Telegraph and referring to Lamy’s speech, he wrote; ‘There really does seem to be a plot to overturn Brexit. There is little doubt the Europhile blob is giving it a go to hold Britain within the EU’s regulatory orbit pending an attempt at re-entry.’ 

Amusingly, he continued: ‘For their plan to have the slightest chance of success, they need to convince the country that Brexit has been an economic disaster.’  

The case for the prosecution will be led by Guy Hands, founder, chair and CIO of Terra Firma; ‘It’s been a complete disaster. The reality is it’s been a lose-lose situation for us and Europe. Europe has lost more [in financial services] but we’ve lost as well. And the reality of Brexit was, it was just was a bunch of complete and total lies.’ 

‘The only way that the Brexit put forward by Boris Johnson was going to work was if there was a complete deregulation of the UK and we moved to a sort of Liz Truss utopia of a Singapore state and that was just never going to happen.’ 

From the opening statement we move to some data: 

• the OBR predicting a 4% shrinkage in long-run productivity relative to remaining in the EU. 
• UK inflation and energy prices are higher than in the EU.  
• Trade has fallen C.20%, and replacements such as the much-trumpeted Australian deal will raise GDP by less than 0.1% a year by 2035.  
• Brexit has led to a 6% increase in food prices. 

The prosecution summarises, thus: 
 
Brexit has become a backdrop to the post-pandemic economic malaise of low growth, rampant inflation and cost-of-living crisis. Instead of paving the way for a dynamic high-growth, low-tax economy promised by Leave’s promoters, Britain reborn as ‘Davos-on-Thames’ – Brexit is now associated with the opposite: a low-growth, high-tax economy. 

A recent studies found that voters are not reacting positively to what has been championed as the successes of Brexit, such as the development our own Covid-19-vaccine program, or our ability to control our response to the Ukraine crisis. Instead they prefer to focus on the negatives, convinced that Brexit is damaging their wages, the country’s economy, and the NHS. Voters are blaming Brexit for our economy getting weaker, and the cost-of-living crisis. 

By way of explanation for this, Brexiters made their own problems when they oversold and lied about the perceived benefits of leaving.  

‘Trussonomics’ and her neo-Thatcherite ‘Liberal Leaver’ vision of Brexit Britain, replete with bankers bonuses, deregulating financial services, tax cuts for top earners, and liberalising immigration from outside Europe, may have appealed to the Tory elites and their donors, but it did nothing for ordinary Brexit voters.

The last thing they wanted was the realisation of the Davos class’s dream of a finance-led economic powerhouse centred on London. As a result there is an increasing gulf between how Conservative elites view Brexit and how the mainly working-class, non-graduate and older voters see Brexit. 
 

‘there is an increasing gulf between how Conservative elites view Brexit and how the mainly working-class, non-graduate and older voters’

 
Many of these voters clearly no longer believe today’s Conservative party is interested in representing ‘people like them’. As a result, since 2019, the party’s support among Brexit voters has crashed by some 30 points. Such is the failure of the party to stay connected with these voters that only a minority of Brexit voters plan to support the only pro-Brexit major party in British politics.  

Which brings me back to the point I have stressed numerous times before. Johnson’s 2019 electoral  success was driven by winning over 75% of the people who had previously backed Nigel Farage. Today, the Tory’s failure to deliver on immigration and controlling our Britain’s borders, together with no attempt to level-up is creating space for another populist revolt in British politics. 

Repetition aside, Reform, a party aligned with Farage, is currently polling at C.9%, a level of support that would guarantee the Tories lose the next general election. Increasing numbers of 2019 Tory voters are now telling pollsters they don’t know who to support or prefer ‘none of the above’ leaving them once again susceptible to some kind of renewed revolt on the right. 

Brexit was supposed to deal with this, and it was expected that voters who had shunned traditional politics would return to the fold of major parties. But, as we prepare to enter 2023, with ‘Bregret’ a key feature of our politics, and many voters wondering what on earth happened to those promises of ‘control’, it is clear that Brexit has not solved anything at all. 
 

‘He said, ‘look here, junior, don’t you be so happy

And for heaven’s sake, don’t you be so sad’

 
There’s not much that could better Philip’s preamble, because it delivers a pretty bleak ‘state-of-the-union’; and how:

This week is the 3^rd anniversary of Brexit, and there is nothing positive to say about it. What else is happening is  small government osmosing to no government as wishy washy Rishi lurches from scandal to crisis and back again.

In politics, corruption can be defined as the abuse of entrusted power for private gain. “Corruption erodes trust, weakens democracy, hampers economic development and further exacerbates inequality, poverty, social division and the environmental crisis.” (1)

The Tory’s are tainted with it as they are the party of money, and wealth. One of the most important benefits that money and wealth brings is power and influence which, in-turn, allows them to accrue more money and wealth.

The ongoing saga of influence and corruption that surrounds the post-2019 Tory government is made worse by the disaster they make of governing. The NHS is barely able to cope, we have a rail network that isn’t fit for purpose, strikes that are crippling trains, schools, and hospitals. After a decade of underfunding just about everything we are left with a country that  is broken.

The Tories are, of course, in denial; last week, in his Bloomberg speech, Jeremy Hunt suggested it was “columnists from both left and right” who had been spreading angst with all their declinist talk. Jeremy, wake-up, there is decline all around you. Your policies serve only to make it worse.

For the Tory’s influence, wheels within wheels, all just an extension of the “old boys club” that has permeated through the party since inception.

The latest revelations about a small connected group of people at the top just highlights that. What is different is the evolution in the network’s character; “high finance and mercantilism are becoming a fast track for new members into this particular political elite’s ranks”.

Then we have ongoing strikes, today was as close to a general strike as I can remember, yet the government does nothing. Whether this inactivity, a tactic or simply cluelessness is open to debate.

We close with Rabb who is currently facing numerous allegations of bullying civil servants. So numerous are they that it beggars belief that he is innocent, the only thing in doubt is the severity of his behaviour.

The increasingly preposterous Rees-Mogg waded into the debate saying, “ “We have to be slightly careful around the bullying allegations but also we mustn’t be too snowflakey about it. People need to be able to say this job has not been done well enough and needs to be done better.”

Plus ca change.

Lyrically we pay tribute to the late, great Tom Verlaine. With his band Television they pioneered post-punk while we were still enjoying punk. There were numerous tracks I could have picked by I have stayed with the popular; we open with “Little Johnny Jewel”, and play out with the wonderful “Marquee Moon”

 
@coldwarsteve
 

 

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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