Brexit Bulletin: Super Saturday, Sundays Clown and Traumatic Tuesday

“And where will she go, and what shall she do

When midnight comes around

She’ll turn once more to Sunday’s clown and cry behind the door…” ¹

 

And Boris was Sunday’s Clown, after “super-Saturday” fizzled out into yet another Commons defeat for the Tsar. Having famously declared that he would rather “die in a ditch” than request an extension, request one he did, and die in a ditch he did not.

Symptomatic of the rather pathetic figure he now cuts, he did not sign the letter to the EU, sending a copy of the Benn act instead.

Obviously, the act of a true leader displaying suitable gravitas to his EU counterparts.

By then his deal was becoming, at best, a very hollow victory, The Tsar’s robust talk since he was elected party leader was reduced to that just that, words, as he capitulated before EU’s red lines accepting a deal offered 19-months ago, and rejected by the then PM, Theresa May, as something “no UK prime minister could ever agree to”. This somehow osmosed into an against-all-odds, critics-defying triumph.

This somehow osmosed into an against-all-odds, critics-defying triumph.

In turn Sundays Clown then suffered a “traumatic Tuesday”, contriving to finally win a Commons vote and then lose, all within 30-minutes.

‘punters rolling the dice more in desperate hope than anything else’

Firstly, the bill seeking to put into law his Brexit deal was passed by MPs on its second reading, by 329 votes to 299, the first time the Commons has formally approved a Brexit plan. However, only 20 minutes later, MPs rejected the government’s so-called programme motion, which set out the accelerated timetable for the bill, by 308 votes in favour to 322 against.

And where does “traumatic Tuesday leave us? After threatening yet another temper tantrum and withdrawing the bill, the Tsar satisfied himself by “pause(ing) this legislation” and awaiting updates from the EU on a possible delay. It really feels like a casino now, with punters rolling the dice more in desperate hope than anything else.

 

“Oh my, my, my, I’m the lone crap shooter

Playin’ the field ev’ry night..” ²

 

The second vote, on the timetable for debating the Brexit deal was, quite correctly, rebuffed by the House. The government were trying to force through one of the most far-reaching pieces of legislation in modern times in only three days.

Within the bill were all sorts of hidden time-bombs, for example; if, by Dec 2020, we haven’t agreed a trade deal with the EU we would leave with what amounts to WTO terms. This is exactly the No Deal terms that the Brexit zealots want, and Parliament is determined to dent them.

Beside the time-bombs, there was the lack of any economic assessment of the treaty, the Chancellor, Sajid Javid, rebuffed MPs’ demands for the Treasury to carry this out claiming, “My starting point is that agreeing the withdrawal agreement is self-evidently in our economic interest,” he said. “It would bring an end to the damaging uncertainty and delay of the past years and allow businesses to get on with taking decisions, including around recruitment and investment.”

‘It’s preposterous behaviour by the chancellor and this government’

John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, said: “Flying blind on a massive decision on the future of the economy is no way for a government to make recommendations to parliament or make legislation. It’s preposterous behaviour by the chancellor and this government.”

Independent analysis by the UK in a Changing Europe think tank suggested Johnson’s plan would knock between 2.3% to 7% off GDP over the next decade, compared with remaining in the EU. The equivalent estimates for Theresa May’s deal were 1.9% to 5.5%.

The Tsar seems to know no other way than to persevere, even after the events of “traumatic Tuesday” he was adamant that we will “definitely be leaving the EU with this deal”. This statement is more noteworthy for what he didn’t say, that is, “by October the 31st”.

‘Johnson’s plan would knock between 2.3% to 7% off GDP over the next decade’

Furthermore, the vote he won doesn’t mean that parliament have approved his deal, it is reported that many MPs voted for it to receive a second reading motivated by the desire not to endorse it, but to amend it. For example, Labour’s Gloria De Piero confessed, she voted yes, “not because I support the deal but because I don’t”.

Within the Tsars 30-vote majority are MPs who will want to propose UK membership of a customs union, others will want the deal to be subject to a confirmatory referendum.

If today’s reports are accurate, there is a realisation of this point within the cabinet which is leading to a split as they try to agree their strategy going forward. Some, seduced by the size of the majority (30), want to push-on, having Parliament ratify the deal, and then call an election trumpeting their success in delivering Brexit. Others, typically the hard-liners led by Rees-Mogg realise that the majority isn’t what it seems, and fear that it will be diluted as it goes through Parliament, and to such an extent that their own backbenchers, especially the ERG, find it unpalatable.

The Tory party’s obsession with Europe and Brexit has radicalised many of its members the rest. These views of these ardent Eurosceptics has changed over last 20-years, shifting from a position where benefits of EU membership were undisputed to a point where belief in these benefits is viewed as treasonous. Eurosceptics used to be wary of further integration, now they want the UK physically towed further away from continental Europe.

Of course, the decision to call an election is no longer controlled by the government, and there is growing feeling that there may be enough support in Parliament to support a bill calling for a second referendum.

What much of these machinations highlight is the mutual distrust the government and Parliament  (the Speaker and the opposition) have of each other. The government is convinced that Parliament is trying to stop Brexit, and Parliament is convinced that the government still wants a No Deal Brexit.

‘a continual game of smoke and mirrors, and every twist and turn is seen to be devious’

This is a situation largely of the governments making, they persist with a continual game of smoke and mirrors, and every twist and turn is seen to be devious. For example, proroguing Parliament, threatening to ignore the Benn Bill, not signing the extension request and then sending a second letter saying they don’t want an extension. There is simply no trust in the PM or his government.

Was the attempt to rush the deal through the House in 3-days a result of obsession with the the Tsar painting himself into a corner with his 31^st ? Or, another example of sleight of hand driven by the fear that any majority would unravel once the deal is subject to closer scrutiny? Anyone with even a trace of attachment to European institutions will quickly see its toxic implications; it explicitly prohibits negotiation of intimate trade. If a more distant relationship isn’t agreed quickly the nasty fear of a No Deal Brexit comes back into view.

‘Northern Ireland and the DUP became just another casualty, collateral damage, in the (un)holy quest that’s Brexit’

There is no better example of the Tsars throw anything or anyone under a bus attitude, than in his treatment of Northern Ireland. At the DUP conference in November 2018 he urged the party to resist the Northern Irish backstop:

“If we genuinely wanted to do free trade deals, if we wanted to cut tariffs, if we wanted to vary our regulation, then we would have to leave Northern Ireland behind as an economic semi-colony of the EU,” he said.

“And we would be damaging the fabric of the Union with regulatory checks and even customs controls between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, on top of those extra regulatory checks down the Irish Sea that are already envisaged in the Withdrawal Agreement.

“Now I have to tell you, no British Conservative government could or should sign up to any such arrangement.”

Eleven months later that was all conveniently forgotten, Northern Ireland and the DUP became just another casualty, collateral damage, in the (un)holy quest that’s Brexit.

In summary, I can only offer one final lyric, and a drawing by Banksy, which, as my wife pointed-out depicts what has happened before our eyes……………

 

“Rule Britannia is out of bounds, To my mother, my dog, and clowns”

 

OK lyric spotters – another triple treat this week – a couple of very familiar acts and a debutant; I am happy to report that I managed to trouble the scorer, but not to the degree I would have liked.

¹ First off the rank is what Philip describes as ‘a classic track from the greatest album of all time’ – and with triple points on offer to boot – what price The Velvet Underground with ‘All Tomorrow’s Parties’?. This one foxed me – I had Nick Cave in my cross hairs, but couldn’t get there – nul points.

² Next, and a deb at the tender age of 173, it’s Dartford’s Jumpin’ Jack Flash – Mick and the boys with the entirely apt ‘Tumbling Dice’. Cross not to have got there, but PG proffered five points for that one, which could see some whopping prizes this week. Redeem in the ususal way please – no acknowledgement will be made for postal entries. 

³ Last but not least, and my only claim to infamy this week (infamy, in…etc) = the presence of The Thin White Duke will come as no surprise, and this week its with ‘Life on Mars’. That’s looking pretty attractive just now – enjoy!

 

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

 

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