Beginning to See the Light: Samo, Samo… 

 

“In arenas, he kills for a prize 

Wins a minute to add to his life 

But the sickness is drowned by cries for more” 

 
The shit-show continues. Before anyone takes exception to the last sentence, I wholly agree that the war in Ukraine has taken a turn for the worse. The Russian atrocities are appalling and should be punished in equal measure. 

Putin is evil, that much is obvious, but he isn’t alone, there is a cabal of right-wing autocrats; Modhi in India, Orban has been re-elected in Hungary, Le Pen is polling well in France, and then there is China. This column has consistently warned about a return to the politics of the 1930s and it is happening. 

The US post-Trump is still a problem as their own hard right are apologists for Putin. 

Fox News’s Tucker Carlson is promoting false narratives to viewers that have been embraced and recycled by Moscow. Last month he touted right-wing conspiracies that attempted to link Joe Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, to a discredited allegation that the US financed bioweapons labs in Ukraine. 

Another example are two Republican congressional conservatives, Madison Cawthorn and Marjorie Taylor Greene who last month condemned Zelenskiy without evidence in conspiracy-ridden terms. Cawthorn called Zelenskiy a “thug” and his government “incredibly corrupt”, while Greene similarly charged that Zelenskiy was “corrupt”. 

There is always the temptation to laugh at loonies and conspiracy theories, but Fox News has millions of viewers, and they all have a vote.  
 

‘This column has consistently warned about a return to the politics of the 1930s and it is happening’

 
We suffer from the same political naysayers too; they are mostly Tory’s. 

“The shit-show continues”, because, at home, nothing changes; P&O continue unchecked, the cost-of-living crisis gets worse, and “partygate” continues to be dismissed as “fluff” and “fundamentally trivial” by the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg. 

We are continually bombarded with ministers sent out to apologise for Johnson, telling us we should “move on”. This is their modus operandi, we are told they need to “grow”, they are works in progress! Yet they have been elected to hold positions of huge power and responsibility. 

The real issue is their belief that rules/laws are for others, they are special, an elite exempt from the constraints that bind the rest of us. They issue non-apologies, or statements responding to accusations of reprehensible behaviour full of self-pity.  

Recenty, a Conservative MP, David Warburton, was accused of sexual assault and pictured allegedly posing next to some cocaine (he has denied any wrongdoing). On Monday, it was announced that he had checked into a psychiatric hospital suffering from “severe shock and stress”.  Interestingly, it has been revealed that Conservative whips were informed of some of the women’s allegations against Mr Warburton two weeks ago and did nothing. 

Rees-Mogg defence of “partygate” was that the laws passed by the government were “unkind and inhuman”? Put another way, it was OK to prosecute the likes of you and I under these rules, but the government is above all of that. As I recollect, if we all behaved that way it would be called anarchy! 
 
The fundamental issue is Johnson’s relationship to the truth. By February, a majority of people thought the prime minister was: 
 

• dislikeable (55%),  
• weak (61%),  
• incompetent (68%),  
• indecisive (69%), 
• 75% didn’t trust him, only 11% did, 
• > 80% of people thought he broke the rules. 

 
Another pollster reports that there has been a “consistent picture in all our focus groups since the start of January”. One voter described Johnson as “a buffoon, a joke, an idiot and, worst of all, a liar. You can’t have a liar.” Others calls him “a hypocritical clown”. A third said “pathetic”. 

His defence is built on shifting sand, ranging from “there were no parties” to “I didn’t attend any parties” to “I didn’t realise they were parties” to “I had a right to attend”. 

Not only did he lie, he isn’t bothered about lying or about being seen to lie. The party hides behind rubbish such as “Johnson got the big calls right” or “we can’t remove him during a war”,  

Really, his, and his governments’ credibility in tatters. If  the electorate swallow this we are also giving up, accepting that the distinction between true and false is secondary. 
 

‘The real issue is their belief that rules/laws are for others’

 
Hannah Arendt, a political philosopher, author, and Holocaust survivor, wrote “true” – comes down to who is most shameless and shouts the loudest. Arendt also recognised that leaders of this type surround themselves with acolytes whose only talent lies in fawning before power, whatever the truth. “is.” 

Whilst we might not be as far down this road as Russia, Arendt saw that totalitarian rule was not an ideological fanatic, but rather someone for whom “the distinction between fact and fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist”. 

Mercifully, it appears that several Tory MPs still want him gone, possibly fearing what he might do next should he get away with “partygate”. The Guardian reported a senior Tory saying: “If Boris gets away with this, he will think that he can get away with anything.”  

The May local elections provide the people with the opportunity to express their opinions.  

Logic suggests that the Tory’s will get a hiding in this forthcoming election, yet there are many voters and newspapers who believe that they are the natural party of government, no doubt egged on by their constant bragging. 

One claim they can make it that this government represents a wider range of Britons than its predecessors. Johnson has a bigger majority, drawn from more parts of England and Wales, than any Tory government since the early 90s, represented by a multiracial cabinet. Whereas Labour MPs are predominantly urban, with a succession of leaders from north London 

Looked at another way, the government has huge reliance on support from pensioners, and twice the number of privately educated cabinet ministers as served under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. 

However, in recent weeks the government has set about alienating groups of voters; public sector workers, people who followed the lockdown rules, exporters to the EU, Covid shielders, benefits claimants which includes pensioners. A combination of cuts, tax rises and indifference over the pandemic threatens to enrage them all.  

The promise of “levelling-up” made to millions of new Tory supporters has disappeared, hardly getting a mention in the chancellor’s spring statement. The government has let people down and is unapologetic about it – “we can’t do everything”, as Sunak put it. 

This is just Johnson being Johnson. His government appears invincible, believing that they have got away with Brexit, the pandemic, and countless other policy disasters and scandals.  

This overconfidence is demonstrated in the way they govern, emphasising subjects such as patriotism at the expense of real issues such as the cost-of-living. Benefits are for the few; rich party donors, their mates being favoured for government contracts, crooks fraudulently claiming barely supervised Covid support payments, and rentiers (asset owners).  
 

‘If Boris gets away with this, he will think that he can get away with anything’

 
Previously, the party tried to provide a degree of equality, E.G., during the 1950s, Harold Macmillan was so keen to get more homes built, to demonstrate that the Tories were creating a “property-owning democracy”. In 1992, the Conservative election manifesto promised “to encourage the wider distribution of wealth throughout society”. It claimed that under them, Britain had already become “a capital-owning democracy”: “10 million people own shares, 6 million of them in newly privatised industries.” 

Today they are only interested in winning. Their promises in the last election earned them broad support, now they appear to be looking backwards targeting a narrower electoral base. Oliver Dowden, the party co-chairman, recently said that their next general election campaign would be “building on the experience of [our] campaign in 2015”. An election they won with only 37% of the vote (almost exactly their poll rating now), by focusing on small numbers of voters in a few dozen swing seats, adding them to the party’s core support and essentially ignoring everyone else.  

This is a high-risk strategy, especially when you consider the chaos of their 3-years in office. Are they really the safe option?  

Then there is the inevitability that older voters will die away. Today’s pensioners, many of whom are beneficiaries of past Tory policies such as right to buy, will gradually be replaced by more liberal Britons who owe the Conservatives little. 

The question is, what impact has their recklessness, and their manoeuvring and shamelessness had on the electorate? Are we, the voters, prepared to be treated as expendable?
 

‘The cost-of-living crisis highlights their cynicism’

 
The cost-of-living crisis highlights their cynicism; politically it’s a calculated gamble that those most affected don’t vote Tory. Just has it has been since Thatcher became PM in 1979. 

During the much-maligned 1970s income and wealth inequality were at an all-time low, underpinned by strong trade unions, and the fact that the welfare state was still a dependable safety net,  

In 1979, C.13% of children lived in relative poverty; by 1992, the figure was 29%. It consistently declined under New Labour, before increasing again after 2010 thanks to David Cameron and George Osborne. Under these two clowns we moved from a European-style social democracy returning to the US form of market-driven individualism, where poverty is either ignored or seen as a personal failure. 

In 2011 the annual British Social Attitudes survey, 77% agreed that benefits for the unemployed were “too high and discouraged people from finding a job”, rather than being “too low and causing hardship”. A more recent survey show the government is out-of-step with the electorate as the figure has dropped to 45%.  

An example of the Tory’s failed policies on the UK’s “benefit culture” was restricting social security payments that supposedly enabled “welfare scroungers” to have large families they couldn’t afford; the “two-child policy” Introduced 5-years ago, it limits benefits payments to the first two children born to the poorest households. This was supposed to cut the welfare bill and, as one minister put it teaching them “the reality that children cost money.” 
 

‘poverty is either ignored or seen as a personal failure’

 
New research indicates that the policy has dismally failed. The fertility rate for third and subsequent children born to poorer families has barely fallen. Instead, the main impact of the policy has been to become the biggest single driver of child poverty. 

Sara Ogilvie, of Child Poverty Action Group,, said: “The two-child limit is a brutal policy that punishes children simply for having brothers and sisters. It forces families to survive on less than they need, and with soaring living costs the hardship and hunger these families face will only intensify”. 

Absolute poverty is defined as being a household income less than 60% of the median income level of 2010-11, adjusted for inflation. The Resolution Foundation forecasts that over the next year, the fall in real incomes means another 1.3 million people in the UK – including 500,000 children – will be pushed into this category, taking the total number to 12.5 million. 

The Tory’s defence has always been we would like to do more, but it costs too much, and no one wants the increases in tax that would be required. There is an element of truth in this defence, however is it a question of we all need to pay more, or that some aren’t contributing their fair share? 

Like me the US president, Joe Biden, thinks it’s the latter. 

In his latest budget Biden proposed a 20% minimum tax on households worth more than $100m. The proposal would raise more than $360bn over the next decade and “would make sure that the wealthiest Americans no longer pay a tax rate lower than teachers and firefighters”. 

White House factsheet notes said: “In 2021 alone, America’s more than 700 billionaires saw their wealth increase by $1tn, yet in a typical year, billionaires like these would pay just 8% of their total realized and unrealized income in taxes”.  
 

‘is it a question of we all need to pay more, or that some aren’t contributing their fair share?’

 
Under the plan households worth more than $100m would have to give detailed accounts to the Internal Revenue Service of how their assets had fared over the year. Those who pay less than 20% on those gains would then be subject to an additional tax that would take their rate up to 20%. 

They calculate that the tax would affect only 0.01% of American households, and that more than half the revenue would come from households worth more than $1bn. 

We finish this week with a tribute to an old friend, Pamela Rooke aka Jordan, who died this week. Thanks for the kindness you showed a young fan in April 1976. Like all early punks it was lifechanging, we were all different, and none of us fitted elsewhere. RIP Jordan. 

“I don’t believe illusions ‘cos too much is real 

So stop your cheap comment 

‘Cos we know what we feel” 

Some very familiar topics from Philip this week, but as my old mucker Lol would have said ‘just getting worser and worser’; here’s how Philip teed up this week’s missive:

‘When I was putting this piece together there was a sense of déjà vu (again?…….Ed); I had written all of this before.

I have stayed away from commenting on the Ukraine situation. It’s a war of aggression by a failed dictator, hopefully it’s his parting shot. The atrocities are awful but, unfortunately, they are neither new nor unexpected.

Domestically, all the war has shown is how we cosied up to the wrong people and allowed them unnecessary influence and access. The trouble is we are morally and financially bankrupt.

It has afforded Johnson the opportunity to be a global statesman which has only served to highlight his shortcomings. He is a decent orator, full of 5-syllable words, but that’s it. Bullshit baffles brains.

He, and his horde believe “Partygate” is trivial by comparison, which, in many ways it is. But what cannot and must not be overlooked is his lies. This saga highlights his casual acquaintance with the truth. If we accept this, we move down the road to authoritarianism; governments who are above the law run by those who shout loudest and longest.

The local elections are our chance to make a difference, to get rid of a party that cares only for itself. They aren’t patriotic, they care about their England not ours.

Poverty and inequality have increased since Thatcher in 1979, the only exception was the Blair / Brown years. There is proof that Conservatism has failed us.

We need to spend more and that means more taxes. This doesn’t require higher tax rates, but it needs everyone to contribute. This is something Biden in the US is aware of.

The defence shouldn’t be I pay what I owe as we heard this morning as the Chancellor’s wife is a non-dom and uses that exemption. Can we be governed under austerity measures by a person who isn’t paying his way?

Musically, we start with “Atrocity Exhibition” by Joy Division as a tribute to Ukraine. We finish with a tribute to an old acquaintance, Jordan. What else but “Pretty Vacant” by the Sex Pistols, who lyrics still seem unnervingly apt.’ Enjoy!

@coldwar_steve
 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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