Beginning to See the Light: Barbarians at the Gate

 

‘War, I despise

‘Cause it means destruction of innocent lives

War means tears to thousands of mother’s eyes

When their sons go off to fight

And lose their lives’

 
Whilst the people of Ukraine struggle against the barbarians, in London we sit watching knowing that we lost our battle with the Russians years ago, only we welcomed the invaders with open arms.

Irrespective of this the government has proudly entered what one Tory MP recently described as a global ‘battle for democracy’. Johnson, inevitably, sees himself at the forefront, repeating the mantra that ‘Putin must fail’, and claiming that Britain is ‘out in front’.

As with all things Johnson this sounds laudable, but beneath the surface the Tories continue to retreat on any commitment to liberal values and are subtly dismantling the basic structures of political scrutiny and accountability.

Brexit was contra to the multilateralism the PM now affects to believe in.

We are governed by a Tory party that has happily accepted Russian money while averting their eyes from the Putin regime’s meddling in British politics. Naturally, this is all so ‘last year’, the sound of guns has suddenly awakened the Tory conscience. One can imagine Johnson now telling us that increases in the cost of petrol, gas and food are the price to be paid for values he appears to be a convert to.
 

‘a Tory party that has happily accepted Russian money while averting their eyes from the Putin regime’s meddling in British politics’

 
Additionally, as Johnson bemoans ‘the Kremlin’s blizzard of lies and disinformation’, we should remember that this is a government where dishonesty is ‘business as usual, who illegally suspended parliament, and plans to clamp down on people’s right to vote which is the very cornerstone of democracy. Even freedom of the press is under discussion as the BBC is persecuted for not being as obedient as the government would like.

There has been much coverage of the Tory’s reliance on Russian donors, and the political influence they have bought. In 2020, Electoral Commission records showed that six members of the cabinet and eight junior ministers had taken money from individuals or businesses linked to Russia.

In their defence senior Tory officials claim that donors are often opposed to the Putin regime, however, anyone who understand modern Russian knows that retaining significant business interests, connections or assets in Russia entails obligations to Putin.

When the parliamentary committee’s heavily redacted report was published in 2020, Johnson dismissed the as the neuroses of ‘Islingtonian remainers’.

The other pillar of the political right, and the Tory’s nemesis, Nigel Farage, dismissed the invasion of Ukraine as the consequences of NATO and the EU ‘poking the Russian bear with a stick’. Farage’s crony, Arron Banks, previously compared Crimea’s relationship with Russia to the Isle of Wight’s with Britain.

Unlike the political left, Farage and Banks have greatly influenced our politics, playing a leading role in Brexit, and have strong ​support in the right-wing press. Fear of Farage led directly to the current populist version of Toryism, and the elements of society characterised by money and power, where the influence of Russians with close links to Putin’ is increasingly clear. These connect pro-Kremlin voices with the City, the London property industry, high-end private schools, and conservative politics.

As a result, Johnson’s attempts to appear resolute and tough are actually borne out of desperation and opportunism.

Token gestures are a speciality of this government, who can forge the ‘clap for the NHS’ which was followed by a pay increase that translated into a ‘real’ pay cut. The latest is Johnson’s offer to ‘shelter’ to Ukrainian refugees as he said, ‘We in the UK cannot shut our eyes and pass by on the other side.’
 

‘Priti Patel only sees people who are somehow looking to take advantage of the UK’

 
Twenty-four hours earlier, Kevin Foster, the immigration minister, had his wide shut when he posted a message on Twitter saying there were ‘a number of routes, not least our seasonal worker scheme’ for Ukrainians wanting visas to visit the UK.

Foster subsequently deleted his tweet but wasn’t in the mood to apologise claiming that many Ukrainians had been in touch with him to say how grateful they were to be offered the opportunity to pick fruit at some point in the future.

Enter stage left the wicked witch; While the rest of us sees a homeless population trying to avoid a war zone, Priti Patel only sees people who are somehow looking to take advantage of the UK.

The EU might have decided to temporarily waive visa requirements for Ukrainian refugees, but the UK most definitely would not be following suit.

In the commons this week she was adamant that the visa requirements were being made more generous, and then contradict herself saying that the new rules would only let in people with immediate family in the UK. Obviously, the plight of Ukraine pales into insignificance compared to the thought of allowing up to 100,000 Ukrainians into the country.

By comparison, Ireland has scrapped visa requirements for Ukrainians, and the EU is expected to offer the right to settle for three years without applying for asylum.

Even readers of the Daily Mail have stepped-up raising £250,000 in a day for a refugee appeal.

This serves to highlight how out of step the government is with public opinion, just as they underestimated the selflessness people would show during a pandemic.

Russia is often referred to as a ‘mafia state, whilst I am unsure that ‘mafia’ is the right term, there is clearly an elite that has enriched itself at everyone else’s expense. Democracy is a threat to this ‘theft, which is why Putin seeks to crush it.

London has been complicit in aiding this ‘theft’, allowing Russia’s criminal elite to launder their money, and providing a home for their wealth. The financial skills of our bankers and lawyers have enabled Russia’s elite to prosper.
 

‘The financial skills of our bankers and lawyers have enabled Russia’s elite to prosper’

 
Tackling the UK’s role in enabling Putin’s kleptocracy and containing the threat his allies pose to democracy here and elsewhere, will require far more than just banning golden visas or Kremlin TV stations.

Their political ‘donations’ are an example of this. I use inverted commas as there is no such thing as a free lunch.

A serial ‘donor’ is Lubov Chernukhin, the wife of Putin’s former deputy finance minister. Yes, the same the lady who paid£160,000 to play tennis with David Cameron and Boris Johnson. The year after the attempted assassination in Salisbury, she paid £135,000 for ‘a night out with Theresa May’. She is now a member of the Conservatives’ 14-strong ‘advisory board’ of donors.

Oliver Bullough, a British writer formerly based in Russia, said he knew close relatives of Putin’s ‘very good friends’ had property in London. Alongside the more famous oligarchs such as Roman Abramovic, lesser-known Kremlin-linked figures including Vladimir Yakunin, an old neighbour of the Russian president and former Russian Railways boss, has been linked to a $47 million house.

‘There are a lot that I know of and I’m sure there are plenty of others because these things are very well hidden.’

London’s main appeal is its lack of oversight. Julia Friedlander, director of economic statecraft at the Atlantic Council, said it was ‘mostly the use of trusts and blind trusts [and] the ability to use derivatives and other financial products to bring money into the country’ that attracted oligarchs to London, as well as ‘the ability to use the U.K. as a lily pad jurisdiction to invest in other parts of the world and, of course, high-end real estate values’.

Transparency International, an anti-corruption group, has identified £1.5bn ($2bn) of Russian money in London property, the majority of which is held by shell companies in offshore havens. In the borough of Kensington & Chelsea alone, some 6,000 properties are registered in the name of anonymously owned companies; many of these are thought to belong to Russians

It isn’t just the UK; the Kremlin’s influence is everywhere:
 

• Former French Prime Minister Francois Fillon, is on the board of the Russian state oil company Zarubezhneft;
• Austria’s former Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl, is a board member of the powerful state oil company Rosneft, which is chaired by former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder;
• Former Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern, who is on the supervisory board of Russian Railways.

 
Besides providing Putin’s cronies with a laundromat, we turned a blind eye to, and then forgot his previous invasions; Georgia in 2008, and Ukraine in 2014. We can add to this his support for the Assad regime’s murderous war against the Syrian people in 2015. The Russian dissident Garry Kasparov laments the ‘amnesia of the west.’

Putin saw how quickly we collectively forgot his actions, four-years after he annexed the Crimea Russia was allowed to host the World Cup. What we didn’t do was help the Ukraine to repel future invasions, or clear-out oligarch’s money from Londongrad.

Only now are we waking up to threat, sadly it has taken terrible images to do so.

Russian invasion seems not to have bought the quick win Putin expected, and there is mounting discontent on the home as sanctions begin to bite.

This week the value of the rouble fell through the floor, and many Russians rushed to local cashpoints in Moscow to retrieve their savings before the damage got any worse. As one said:

‘It said they had dollars so I came here immediately,’ said Alexei Presnyakov, 32, pointing to an app for Russia’s Tinkoff Bank, indicating he could withdraw hard currency. About 20 people were queued in line. ‘Yesterday [the rate] was 80 [to the dollar]. Today it’s 100. Or 150.’1

Within minutes, however, the word travelled down the queue: the dollars were gone.

With its reserves frozen, the Central Bank has more than double its main interest rates to 20%, the highest this century, and forced major exporting companies, including large energy producers like Gazprom and Rosneft, to sell 80% of their foreign currency revenues, effectively buying roubles to prop up the currency rate.
 

‘businesspeople, including the powerful oligarchs, appear unsettled by the instability ushered in by the invasion’

 
The harshness and speed which the sanctions have been deployed has left Russia isolated, businesspeople, including the powerful oligarchs, appear unsettled by the instability ushered in by the invasion, and the extraordinary measures being taken to prop up the rouble.

Oleg Deripaska, the billionaire businessman, had called for peace ‘as fast as possible’ in a Telegram post on Sunday. On Monday, he went after the Central Bank decision to hike rates, taking aim at long-time rival Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank.

‘A hiked rate, the mandatory sale of foreign currency … this is the first test of who actually will be responsible for this banquet. I really want clarifications and intelligible comments on the economic policy of the next three months.’

Further measures such as strict limits on transfers of money abroad have also been introduced.

For many Russians this is a watershed moment. One entrepreneur who owns restaurants and tourism companies said, ‘I think people are going to feel scared to spend money. We have left communism 30 years ago, we got accustomed to having a lot of comforts that are also seen in the West. All of that progress can be gone. We are no longer a member of the international community.’
 

‘All of that progress can be gone. We are no longer a member of the international community.’

 
What is also clear is the there is a marked age divide within Russian society. Younger people who grew up free from the repression of the former Soviet Union are increasingly against the war and Putin’s propaganda machine. Whereas older people are more trusting of the leader and that he knows the right path.

Sanctions have shaken the latter who now fear returning to that past.

Younger people’s attitude to the world is very different to their elders. They embrace rather than fear change, the have none of the bigotry that many older people suffer from. The young are inclusive without fear of gender, colour, race, or sexual persuasion, whereas their elders are exclusive, still suspicious of people seen as different. My own mother still sees gay’s as ‘queer’ or as ‘funny people’.

This battle between old and young, inclusive and exclusive, is the basis of the war on woke. This week to my horror I found myself agreeing with Steve Baker the Tory MP, who is usually too far right for my tastes. In a Guardian article he wrote:

‘We all need to shout less and listen more. We must realise that giving no quarter is not the same as embracing ideas we disagree with. It is radically moderate to show care, to be kind and to be respectful. It is radically moderate to recognise that ethnic minorities, LGBTQ+ and other communities still face social barriers.’

This is especially relevant as a study by the Onward thinktank suggested that Labour could regain 31 seats in the north, Midlands, and north Wales if 2019 Conservative voters switched back to their preferred party, but only three southern seats would change hands.

The analysis found that 60% of battleground seats at the next election will be in northern England compared with 20% in the south and the Conservatives have a chance to gain ground in most of these seats.

It also forecast that 49 seats in London and the south-east are drifting away from the Tories and could fall in two or three elections’ time.

The report concluded that the proposed Lib Dem-Labour pact would be insufficient to unseat the government, finding that the Conservatives would still hold 321 seats while Labour would win 233 seats and the Lib Dems would have 24.

James Blagden, chief data analyst and head of Onward’s Future Politics programme, said: ‘The heart of the Tory party has been shifting northwards for the last 30 years. That trend is set to continue. But the greatest short-term concern for the Conservatives should be backsliding in the red wall, losing their iconic 2019 gains, and putting their majority at serious risk.’

A poll by JL Partners concluded that an election today would result in the Tories losing 164 seats, leaving them with 201, Labour would have 352 seats, a gain of 150, with an overall majority of 14. Only 9% of people polled said they believed that Johnson ‘tells the truth’.

The invasion of Ukraine following hard on the heels of the pandemic means we have suffered two ‘black swan’ event in 2-years. These are watershed moments, not only in Russia, but also in the UK, providing an opportunity to reshape our destiny’s.

People’s attitudes to both events have been caring and concern for other, now there is the opportunity to build an inclusive society based on something more lasting than greed, power, and influence.
 

‘When your day is long

And the night, the night is yours alone

When you’re sure you’ve had enough

Of this life, well hang on’

 
As I opened Philip’s piece this week it struck me that there have been just so many momentous events since the inception of this column; it began by debating events around Brexit, but these have in many ways been eclipsed by, with apologies to Harold Macmillan – ‘bloody huge events, dear boy’.

Rather than reporting on the war itself, Philip has taken a broader look at events leading up to and as a backdrop to tanks rumbling across the border; as we hear that Russian ordinance continues to rain down despite a declared ceasefire, perhaps the most dangerous ‘event’ is that Putin scored few ‘quick wins’ and is finding progress hard to make.

However much adoration Boris apparently seeks for imposing the ‘toughest’ sanctions on Russia, there can be little argument that London has been awash with filthy lucre.

And explain just how instructing Knight Frank to stick a board outside Stamford Bridge with a price tag of £3bn counts as ‘freezing or confiscating’ Roman Abramovich’s assets?

There’s little ambiguity in Philip’s thinking – ‘In the UK, the City and the Tories are guilty of welcoming them with open arms, one fueled by the need for fee’s, the other by the need for funding. We have effectively encouraged state-sponsored money laundering on an enormous scale. Too many ‘niche businesses’ have thrived on nothing other than serving state sponsored gangsters.

Nothing ever comes for free, as their money bought pseudo respectability a blind-eye was turned to everything else. The influence their ‘donations’ bought allowed the Tory’s coffers to swell and put them well down the road to moral bankruptcy.’

Keen not to be eclipsed by Liz Truss’ impressive international statesmanship (Have you been on the vodka?…..Ed) Priti Patel has made a strong showing in the bid to identify the UK’s most odious politician. Bearing in mind the candidates include Sir Edward Leigh this is impressive. 

In conclusion, Philip finishes by considering the age-gap that is apparent in Russia, and then broadens it to include ourselves: ‘The invasion, along with Covid, means we have had two black swan events in quick succession. Hopefully, Russia won’t be the only country to come out of this with a more inclusive, honest, and forward-looking new government.’

Ypa to that.

‘Musically, we start with Edwin Starr and ‘War’; was there ever a better anti-war song. I wanted to finish with something poignant but also with hope. We close with REM’s ‘Everybody Hurts’.’ Enjoy!

@coldwar_steve <
 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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