Two thirds of Britons believe the UK is in a recession

New research shows that Britons are increasingly gloomy about the UK’s economic fortunes

2 in 3 Britons now believe that the UK’s economy is currently in a recession, reveals a new survey of 1,000 UK adults by leading customer experience and market research company Maru.

The new poll found that 67% of UK adults believe that the UK is in recession, compared to just 23% of respondents who are confident that the economy is not in recession. These surprising results come despite the UK’s real GDP having grown by 0.2% in the three months to August 2024. While the UK did enter a small technical recession in the latter part of 2023, the economy has since improved.

Maru’s research shows that Britons’ also have an increasingly gloomy outlook for the UK’s finances and measures related to the economy overall; including inflation, interest rates, wages, and consumer confidence.

The survey shows that:

• 68% believe that wages are not keeping up with inflation. While historically accurate, average weekly earnings grew in August 2024 by 4.9% compared to inflation which was just 2.2%.

• 66% believe that consumer confidence is getting worse compared to just 34% of respondents who believe it is improving.

• 60% believe that the economy is worse than the media makes it out to be, compared to just 40% who believe the opposite to be true.

• 56% of Britons believe the FTSE 100 has been down for the past year despite overall gains for the stock market, particularly in the early part of 2024.

• 51% of Britons believe unemployment is reaching a 50-year high, despite unemployment in the UK actually being at a record low of 4% in October 2024.

• 50% believe that the UK overall economy is ‘getting worse’, with just 18% believing that it will get better. This comes despite the OBR predicting positive GDP growth for the economy of between 1.1% and 2% annually over the next three years.

• 50% believe that inflation is increasing, despite the UKinflation rate having fallen below the Bank of England’s 2% target to 1.7% in September 2024.

• 46% believe that interest rates are still increasing, despite the Bank of England having cut interest rates by 0.25% in November 2024. The Governor of the Bank of England has also forecast that interest rates will likely come down further over the coming months and years.

Sarah Beams, Managing Director of Maru commented: “The results of our poll are striking because they show a significant disparity between how Brits think the UK is performing and how the economy is actually performing. What is clear is that UK adults are much more likely to be more pessimistic about the country’s economic fortunes. This could be influenced by a number of different factors, such as mixed messaging about the economy in the media or a disparity between the current economic performance indicators and their own household finances. For example, while inflation is now coming down many people are still feeling the pinch because prices have not reduced and the country is just starting to emerge from a long period of high inflation. The wider implication for those in policy is that messages about a turnaround in economic growth are not cutting through.”

For more information, visit https://www.marugroup.net/.