“Sell in May and go away” hasn’t worked for investors during Trump’s era…

 

According to IG analysis, the S&P 500 delivered far stronger returns during the traditional May – October window under Donald Trump than in other years.

From May to October, the index gained an average 9.5% during Trump years – versus just 1.3% in non-Trump years over the past two decades. That’s a sevenfold jump!
 

According to IG’s market analysis: 

  • S&P 500 has returned 9.5% between May and October during Trump years, vs 1.3% during non-Trump years
  • While markets have experienced increased volatility through tariff and aggressive foreign policy under Trump, rapid regains have led to outperformance vs 20-year average
  • FTSE 100 still experiences significant “Sell in May” trend, exacerbated during Trump years

 

Here, Angeline Ong, Senior Investment Analyst at IG explains what investors should consider for their next move: 

 

“Forget TACO – this is TikTok Trump, here for the clout, gone by the next notification. Markets have swapped fear for complacency, and that’s the sweet spot where Trump thrives, because complacent markets give him free rein to do whatever he wants. This could be another reason why the ‘Sell in May, go away’ trend, at least for the S&P 500, has reversed under Trump.

“So, why is the S&P 500 crushing it while the FTSE 100 seems stuck in a summer slump? It really comes down to where the money lives. The S&P 500 is the ultimate homebody; it’s absolutely stacked with those US tech titans – Apple, Alphabet, Amazon – giants that thrive on domestic growth and deregulation.

“But the FTSE 100? It’s the ultimate global traveler – we’re talking over 80% of its revenue being pulled in from outside the UK – and that’s currently its biggest liability. When trade tensions boil over, the FTSE tends to get caught in the crossfire while the

S&P 500 keeps surfing that domestic wave.

“Maybe you’re not sold on the S&P 500 because you’re convinced the “NACHO” (Not A Change Hormuz Opens) situation is going to be the real summer disruptor.”
 
If you’re ready to look past the day-to-day Trump-induced chaos and play the long game, here’s where the smart money is sniffing around:

 

The oil play:

 

The options market is still indicating oil is relatively well bid at $200 a barrel in August*.

 

The metal crunch: