Following SpaceX’s market debut on Friday 12 June, we have retail trading data from Capital.com that gives a clear read on how the listing landed with investors. Our Senior Financial Market Analyst, Kyle Rodda, has the detail:
“The SpaceX float was always going to be a spectacle. Capital.com data shows traders who positioned in SpaceX during its debut week averaged roughly seven trades each. Of those traders, 74.5% positioned long and 25.5% short, a decisive lean toward the upside, though a meaningful minority took the opposite view from the start. The numbers suggest retail traders more than matched the enthusiasm of investors who, as we now know, were many times oversubscribed the SpaceX IPO.
The bigger question hanging over SpaceX is whether that enthusiasm can last given the company’s fundamentals. As flagged going into the float, the company targeted a $US1.8 trillion valuation and priced shares at $US135, all while operating in a loss-making position. Early listings in history-making IPOs tend to attract a wave of speculative interest that can disconnect price from underlying value. The sentiment skew we’re seeing in the Capital.com data is a strong signal of a possible fear of missing out, especially after a strong performance from the stock in its first session.

For the broader market, what SpaceX really represents is the opening act of a much larger story. With the AI and technology IPO pipeline now estimated at $3.6 trillion, and OpenAI and Anthropic among those eyeing the public markets, investors will be watching how SpaceX’s share price holds up in the coming weeks as a read on the market’s capacity to absorb a wave of high-valuation, loss-making listings. A strong hold would be a green light; a sharp reversal could set the cat amongst the proverbial pigeons