The Times They Are A-Changin’; You Can’t Always Get What You Want 

 

 

“You can’t always get what you want
But if you try sometimes, well, you might find
You get what you need” 

 

Once again, England came up short.

 

But, lets be positive, our results from 2018 onwards have, with the exception of 1966 been our best. We failed to even qualify in 1974, 1978 and 1994. 

Finish in the top-6 is about the right position for us. 

Our problem is expectation and hype, “it’s different this time”, it never is!  

One person who never disappoints is President Trump.  

Its all “me first”, then “America First”; bilateral negotiations, economic nationalism, and transactional diplomacy, rather than multilateral agreements and traditional alliances.  

This basis for this is American exceptionalism, leveraging military and economic power to secure direct, tangible advantages for the US. 

The post-WW2 world order, where the US subsidised members of alliance such as NATO are gone, now everyone must increase their own defence spending if they expect continuing US support. 

 

‘One person who never disappoints is President Trump’  

 

This “Transactional” comes at the expense of traditional ideological objectives such as protecting democracy, which is why Trump favours Russia and right-wing populist parties that are Russian supportive, over America’s traditional European alliances.  

Last week’s Nato summit in Ankara highlighted that Nato, as we know it, is broken. This is the end of the “American era”, that was defined by growth and prosperity. 

It was an angry, unthinking Trump that attended the summit.  

The forthcoming mid-terms could leave him as a lame duck president. His popularity continues to plummet as the cost-of-living crisis worsens due to the inflationary nature of his trade tariffs, and the fiasco of the Iran War. 

Trump, it appeared saw the summit as an opportunity to show the US electorate how he dominates the international stage. 

 

‘His popularity continues to plummet as the cost-of-living crisis worsens due to the inflationary nature of his trade tariffs, and the fiasco of the Iran War’

 

He resurrected his demand for Greenland, saying: “Denmark doesn’t spend money to really help Greenland, but it’s an important part for the US, and it’s surrounded by China ships and Russian ships … [It] should be controlled by the US, not by Denmark. And when they wouldn’t go along with it, and with all the money we spend to help them with Russia.”  

He repeated his ongoing threats to completely withdraw US Troops from Europe, and European leaders were lambasted for not support his ill-considered and un-planned war on Iran. He dismissed them as weak, “horrible” leaders for not meeting his spending demands fast enough. 

The special relationship didn’t fare to well: “In the case of the United Kingdom, the prime minister, I guess he’s no longer there, maybe because of this, it was a very unpopular thing he did. He said: ‘No, we’ll help after the war is over.’ I said: ‘We don’t need that kind of help.” 

Defence, whilst the obvious issue, there are also probable consequences for global trade, markets, and geopolitical alliances. Subjects such as who controls what, supply chains, and strategic sovereignty all face unknown unknowns. 

‘Subjects such as who controls what, supply chains, and strategic sovereignty all face unknown unknowns’

 

Europe might look towards China, with their critical resources from solar power to rare-earths, and for access to the growing prosperity of SE Asia? 

If so, are they jumping from the American frying pan into the Chinese fire? 

Whatever, the outcome, a number of European leaders, together with Canada, want to go their own way. Many regard Trump as a greater threat than Putin.  

The Wall Street Journal reports that authorities in countries such as France to the Netherlands are removing American tech from their systems, including Microsoft Teams and Office, preferring European open-source software.  

They are belatedly spending hundreds of billions of dollars trying to boost Europe’s private space firms, AI companies, and data centres, to avoid dependence on US juggernauts. They are considering where to store their data or process their payment, and how their American-made weaponry might operate without Washington’s authorization.  

Europe has accepted that Trump is who he is, and a nation that elected him twice simply can’t be trusted. Their perception is that the US is a diminishing power, and they need to extricate themselves from their dependency on American technology and military power.  

Trump, thanks to a supine Republican Party, and a tame Supreme Court might be all-powerful at home, but the rest of the world is fast seeing him for what he is; insolent noise! 

The Iran war has revealed all manner of shortcomings; no objectives or plan, and the limitation of US military power. 

 

‘the rest of the world is fast seeing him for what he is; insolent noise!’ 

 

Rather than destroying Iran’s resistance the war has made it more entrenched. As a result what has billed down to the battle for the Strait of Hormuz, continue to blight economies and people the world over. 

Elsewhere, Tump’s expected to deliver Ukraine to Vladimir Putin, based on his assumption that once US military aid to Ukraine ceased they would be unable to defend themselves. As Trump told Zelenskyy “you don’t have the cards.” 

Unfortunately for Trump, Zelensky was a better cardplayer than he thought, and with Europe stepping-up to replace US aid allied with Ukrainian military innovation the underdog is now winning! 

Financially, there are also signs of diminishing US power, as it becomes increasingly easy for nations to bypass US banks and the dollar using cryptocurrency and Chinese yuan. 

The other leg of Trump’s belief in American exceptionalism was trade. He believed that other nations would cower in fear when faced with U.S. tariffs. They didn’t. 

China, especially, faced him down, realising that US need for rare earths was greater than their need to access American consumers. 

In truth, China now all but dominates all free-market western democracies. Collectively, we have lost the GDP battle, China are the cheapest-to-manufacture, the supplier of everything. 

 

‘China now all but dominates all free-market western democracies’

 

Recent analysis shows that China’s trade surplus with the EU in manufactured goods alone  is roughly equivalent to Italy’s national income. Moreover, this disparity, is estimated to continue growing by about 30% each year. A paper from Centre for European Reform finds that Europe, with Germany in the frontline, risks “deindustrialisation at China’s hand”. 

The impact of this was shown last week, when Volkswagen’s supervisory board discussed proposals to cut 100,000 jobs – around a sixth of the company’s global workforce – and close plants. Taking into account indirect as well as direct employment, the automotive employs C.3m people in Germany. 

Within the EU, subsidised cheap vehicles from China are dominating sales of EV vehicles despite import duties on them. European car sales in the US have crashed due to Trump’s tariffs, and China are negligible with the market dominated by domestic maunfacturers. 

The EU’s commissioner for industry, Stéphane Séjourné, has talked of the potential VW job losses as a wake-up call, underlining “the urgency to act decisively to protect our markets from unfair practices from our global competitors”. 

 

‘it will result in is deindustrialisation, and unemployment, which will create inequality and benefit only rentiers and the hardline AfD’

 

The delay is partly caused by countries such as Germany, who have relied heavily on exports and fear retaliation to a “Made in Europe” strategy. The centre-right chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is emphasising a more economically neoliberal approach, based on a growth package dedicated to cutting red tape, diluting workers’ rights and raising the retirement age. 

This is the same old shtick that has failed just about everywhere. All it will result in is deindustrialisation, and unemployment, which will create inequality and benefit only rentiers and the hardline AfD.  

A result likely to be welcomed and endorsed by Trump.  

In the meantime, Trump continues to bomb Iran. His proposed a 20% tariff for the policing the Strait of Hormuz has been replaced by a demand for countries to invest in the US; both are illegal and stupid. 

He is turning his attention to the midterms by revisiting the “steal” of 2020, no doubt setting the scene for some electoral chicanery….. 

 

And, we lost a game of football! 

 

“It was nearly complete
It was nearly so sweet”  

 

The only real story today is the football.

Once again, England came up short.

We need a reality check; our results from 2018 onwards have, with the exception of 1966, been our best. We failed to even qualify in 1974, 1978 and 1994.

Prior to Gareth Southgate, excluding our win as hosts in 1966, we reached one semi-final, in 1990

In 2018, semi-final, 2022 quarter-final, 2026, another semi-final.

Not to mention back-to-back Euro finals.

We are a top-6, but no more than that.

Our premier league is often cited as the “best”, it isn’t it’s the hardest and overall, the richest.

For anyone disagreeing with me, since 2000 English clubs have won the Champions League 6 times and so have Real Madrid!

Our problem is expectation and hype, “it’s different this time”, it never is!

Football has become just another exercise in English exceptionalism.

It’s also a metaphor for our economy; the richest clubs prevail.

When we established the premier league and sold the TV rights to Sky, we sold our soul to the devil

Lyrically, we start with “You Can’t Always Get What You Want” by the Rolling Stones. We end with Three Lions” and yet more “years of hurt”.

Let’s hope Spain stuff Argentina!

Philip

 

@Coldwarsteve

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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