The Times They Are A-Changin’: Sliding Doors 

 

 

“I awoke from The Sickness at the age of forty-five, calm and sane, and in reasonably good health except for a weakened liver and the look of borrowed flesh…” 

 

 

Has the last 10-yrs been a bad dream? Or, have people just come to their senses? 

 

Unfortunately, it’s the latter. All it has taken is a protracted cost-of-living crisis caused by the axis of evil (US, Russia, Israel) for voters to realise that having no money is worse than being in the EU and vilifying immigrants. 

Labour have finally realised that aping Reform doesn’t work. Instead it lends credibility to their racism, and misses the point that people don’t want to feel poor!  

 

‘people don’t want to feel poor!‘

 

The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has realised that traditional Labour is inclusive, and has revised her most hardline plans to make care workers wait 15-yrs for settlement in the UK. However,  many migrants will still face retrospective rule changes to make them wait a decade. 

The carve-out for care workers was been driven by a cabinet backlash and health unions, and they will be able to apply for indefinite leave to remain after 5-yrs. 

Her more rigorous new rules remain, including plans to force those who arrived in the UK by irregular means such as small boats to face up to 30-yrs before being able to apply for settlement. 

Predictably, the Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, for whom any immigrants are too many, said it was “the beginning of the capitulation” 

A more considered approach came from the Walthamstow MP Stella Creasy who said: “The economic consequences of those people walking away from the UK will far outweigh any savings in entitlement to benefits, given many of them don’t claim anyway, so the home secretary still has work to do to make these reforms work for our national interest.” 

The PM, although absent from the House, was at his conciliatory best saying: “People want to see an immigration system based on control, contribution, and which rewards those who play by the rules.” 

 

“The economic consequences of those people walking away from the UK will far outweigh any savings in entitlement to benefits’

 

Aside from the racist right who are in denial and despise any form of immigration, the data shows that legal immigration has fallen to the tens of thousands a year from its high point of one million during Boris Johnson’s time in office. And the small boat crossings have more than halved. 

For the Tories, Chris Philp was at his most entertaining, puffed-up with righteous indignation; the government should be ashamed of itself, this was virtually an open-doors policy; there would be foreigners everywhere if we weren’t careful. 

The last word goes to the Tory father of the house, Edward Leigh, who appears totally disenchanted with the party, who told the House that the former Tory government should be holding its head in shame. 

Another area that is now seeing serious debate rather than histrionics is Brexit.  

This week, the EU and the UK have completed a deal to remove Brexit checks on imports and exports of food and animal products ranging from sausages and cheese to leather goods and flowers. 

This will provide much needed support for our food exporters, for whom trade with Europe has dropped by a third since 2019, and will also mean smaller retailers in the UK such as delicatessens can return to buying smaller batches of cheese and wines, something that became impossible because of the cost of Brexit checks introduced in 2022. 

Last month the National Farmers’ Union said exports of British food to the EU had collapsed by a third since Brexit, with eggs, chicken and potato products worst hit. 

The EU has been proved a defining moment for the Tories, and, at least temporarily, has seen the end of moderate, One Nation Toryism. 

Brexit might still polarise our politics, but, in 2026, the debate is, or at least it should be, very different.  

An increasingly aggressive Russia, alongside Trump’s US, which regards European democracies with contempt whilst indulgencing Putin, shows the need for European solidarity, and, in our case, the need to accept that the “special relationship” is dead. 

Appearing more myopic than usual, the Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, accused the government of stirring division by raising the European question, and told MPs that Labour should thank the Tories for the Brexit deal they negotiated 

Both the Tories and Reform are stuck in an ideological time-warp, and fear what reevaluating Brexit will mean for them, as the electorate have realised that their foolishness made us poorer and diminished our influence on the world stage. 

 

‘the National Farmers’ Union said exports of British food to the EU had collapsed by a third since Brexit’

 

Clearly, their self-importance means more them than confronting the current geopolitical situation. 

Voters have no desire for a return to the poisonous political atmosphere of the immediate post-referendum period, and Badenoch appears to be using this to justify her lack of a strategic concept for our future relationship with Europe. By comparison, the PM is seeking a national consensus on the best way forward, without stating his own preferences. 

We are also seeing a reappraisal of Rachel Reeves time as chancellor which was endorsed by the IMF, who said the UK’s deficit reduction plan “stands out” among G7 peers. 

Speaking at the Mais lecture in March, Reeves set-out the path for Burnham’s devolution saying: “Today, what most distinguishes Britain from our closest peers is the relative underperformance of our major cities outside London, compared to their European counterparts.” 

This week, Reeves said the UK should return to the EU fold. “Economic interests, common values and basic geographical reality all point towards Europe,”. 

‘as in life, compromise is the way forward in politics’

 

Whilst Reeves’s was heavily criticised after she increased employers’ NIC, this showed that Labour were a  government willing to make hard choices. She also realised that the risk of increased borrowing was necessary, and her own fiscal rules were relaxed which has enabled £100bn of new capital spending, which is starting to flow into NHS infrastructure, roads, housing, rail upgrades and energy and industrial investments.  

Labour, under Burnham, might seem like a compromise government, softening their stance on immigration, acquiescing to pointless exploration in the North Sea, but, as in life, compromise is the way forward in politics. 

Dogma is fine when your in control, but, thanks to the axis of evil, leaders in other countries are finding themselves having to react to problems of someone else’s making! 

 

“I travel the world and the seven seas 

Everybody’s looking for something” 

 

Notes: 

1. William S. Burroughs, opening lines from the “Naked Lunch” 

1. “Sweet Dreams” by Eurythmics 

 

This is rather a revisionist piece, which tries to capture the apparent undoing of past mistakes.

Brexit is back on the agenda, no longer taboo. This will likely be more damaging for Reform and the Tories, who were the culprits and who still have their heads in the sand.

Like it, or not, we need to stand alongside Europe, because, should Trump remain in-office, we will need to confront Russia.

Trumpism has destabilised the globe, it is the temporary triumph of power over democracy.

As I write this, Americans are voting in the midterms; if polls are correct, this should signal the beginning of the end of the Trump era.

If the polls are correct, much will then depend on how the Trump administration reacts.

Perhaps the MAGA faithful will be less likely to revolt than was the case in 2021; nonetheless, it is likely to be messy. Expect to hear something along the lines of us seeing a Muslim-inspired Democratic party undertaking a communist coup.

The next 5-days will be fascinating.

A slight change this week as we start with the opening lines from William S. Burroughs book, the “Naked Lunch,” and we end with “Sweet Dreams” by Eurythmics 

 

 

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

 

Click on the link to see all Brexit Bulletins: