The Times They Are A-Changin’: “Panic on the Streets of…..” Pt.2

 

 

“Meanwhile, far away in another part of town Rubin Carter and a couple of friends are drivin’ around Number one contender for the middleweight crown Had no idea what kinda shit was about to go down” ⁽¹⁾

 

 

In Pt.1 we looked at the forthcoming local elections, and the Prime Minister, the first of the two big issues being raised by voters. Pt.2 looks at the second, immigration, an issue surrounded by controversy, unpleasantness and untruths.

 

There are two distinct types of immigration. The first, legal immigration involves entering and residing in a country with government permission, such as through visas or work permits. The other illegal (or unauthorised) immigration involves entering or remaining without authorization, including visa overstays or clandestine entry. Legal migrants have recognized status and access to services, whereas illegal migrants face risks of detention and removal.

Generally, UK voters support legal, skilled immigration (such as for health care) but have concerns over overall immigration volumes, with 67% viewing total levels as too high. Public opinion is nuanced, distinguishing between types of migrants, with higher acceptance for workers and students compared to asylum seekers.

For many developed economies immigration is a necessity as they have shrinking birth rates and ageing populations.

As of mid-2024, UK population was C.69.3 million, with the number of people aged 65+ growing. By 2050, it is projected that 25% of the population will be aged 65+.

This problem has been acknowledged by Spain’s PM Sanchez, who, this year, formally approved a plan to grant legal status to approximately 500,000 undocumented migrants to support Spain’s ageing population and booming economy.

Sanchez estimated that migration has created 80% of Spain’s economic growth over the past 6-years and contributes 10% of social security revenue while only representing 1% of public expenditure.

In Britain, public concern about immigration levels is nothing new, what has changed is that politicians have chosen to exploit the situation for their own ends.

Reform have exploited the situation more than any other party, and this has given them traction with the electorate. To counter this, the traditional ruling parties, Labour and Conservative have become increasingly voluble on the subject as they seek to counter Reform.

 

‘politicians have chosen to exploit the situation for their own ends’

 

However, as we have seen in Europe, this has two negative outcomes. Firstly, what was extreme becomes accepted into the mainstream discourse, allowing for yet more extreme policies. Secondly, voters have shown a preference for the extremist parties, choosing a real espresso rather than a decaf version.

In the UK both scenarios are present, with Reform moving to more extreme proposals.

Originally, their immigration policy focused on achieving “net zero” migration through strict control, aiming to “stop the boats” by detaining and deporting all illegal migrants, including processing asylum claims in offshore detention centres

As both Labour and Conservative’s adopted this stance it became the norm, which allowed Reform to propose abolishing Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR), mandating visa renewals every five years.

Their platform emphasizes stricter, high-salary thresholds, increased English requirements, a 20% “immigration tax” on foreign worker salaries for employers, while British citizens pay 13.8%.

There are also welfare restrictions, stopping anyone except British citizens from accessing welfare benefits.

 

Local elections often show different priorities to a general elections; a survey by YouGov in April found voters top-5 concerns were:

 

1. Roads; 37%

2. Cost-of-living; 35%

3. NHS; 29%

4. Immigration; 19%

5. Crime; 18%

 

Source: https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54552-what-do-britons-see-as-the-top-issues-locally-ahead-of-2026-local-mayoral-and-devolved-elections

 

This confirms my long-held belief that UK voters are not racists. They are the left behind that I often write about, the ones who are little better off today than they were in 2008, the ones who suffer most from the wars caused by right-wing extremists in Russia, Israel, and the US.

These victims of inequality who have been continually let-down by mainstream politicians, who are turning to extreme solutions out of desperation. It’s a call for help as much as anything else.

Many of them, indeed the majority of voters are patriotic, which might be defined as love for your country, its culture, and its people, and not being hostile toward others.

 

‘victims of inequality who have been continually let-down by mainstream politicians, who are turning to extreme solutions out of desperation’

 

As we move to nationalism, with its basis in superiority and aggression things gets murkier, as it promotes the interests of one’s own nation above all others, fostering a “my country right or wrong” mentality, E.G., an “America First” policy that disregards international treaties or scapegoats foreign countries.

From here it is a slippery slope to racism, with its prejudices based on race, ethnicity, or skin colour, racial superiority, which can be linked to nationalist ideals of racial purity.

I read an interesting article last week, that quoted research from the 1928 Institute – a group of Oxford academics who analyse the British Indian community – which showed support among that community for Reform had risen from 4% in 2024 to 13% in 2025. Whilst still significantly lower than that of the general UK population, there is a strong upwards trend in support.

The article quoted a NHS doctor living in London, who chairs Reform UK’s branch and her belief of similarities between the Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, and India’s PM, Narendra Modi. “He’s [Modi] one of those people, like Nigel, he walks the talk. He made [a] difference to the country.”

She cited the fact that both Farage and Modi have each been accused by their critics of scapegoating marginalised communities, when, she felt, they were putting the needs of the majority first.

The doctor arrived from Mysore in 2003, aged 23, on a visitor visa to complete her medical exams. She got a job as a junior doctor in the NHS and was granted a work visa, before being granted indefinite leave to remain (ILR) and British citizenship.

Having benefitted from this, she now wishes to deprive others of the same advantages, and supports Reform’s priorities, including its plans to scrap ILR, which gives people rights and access to benefits.

This reminded me of a piece I wrote in February 2020, “Immigration.”

In this, I commented on race / religious influenced rioting in India, targeting Muslims. The organisers of these attacks were local politicians affiliated to the Bharatiya Janata party (“BJ”), India’s ruling party.

The attacks came after demonstrations against Modi’s discriminatory citizenship law.

There has long been a following for extreme right-wing views such as Hitler’s 1935 Nuremberg Laws, which prohibited non-Aryans from marrying those of “German blood” and created a category of second-class citizenship for Jews.

This concept of a national state was supported by VD Savarkar, the Indian political theorist of Hindu nationalist ideology, who used this as a model for eventual Hindutva policy towards India’s Muslim residents.

Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (“RSS”) is a Hindu nationalist movement dating back to the mid-1920s, many of whose members venerated Savarkar. Senior leaders, such as MS Golwalkar, were influenced by Mussolini and Hitler. The BJ party, the political wing of RSS and now India’s ruling party, has begun to implement changes in citizenship laws that echo the Nuremberg Laws.

 

‘The BJ party, the political wing of RSS and now India’s ruling party, has begun to implement changes in citizenship laws that echo the Nuremberg Laws’

 

India’s new Citizenship Amendment Act allows for a fast-track to citizenship for non-Muslim migrants, thus discriminating against Muslims. The proposed national register requires residents to prove their citizenship with documentation – which many in India lack. Together, these laws place Muslims without documentation in a quandary. Large detention centres are being built to house India’s Muslim residents who are declared ineligible for citizenship.

Ultimately, when you start discriminating against immigrants it become a slippery slope to a nasty place.

The UK should look to Spain, they have one of the best performing global economies, and have embraced immigration.

I console myself with the fact, that the majority of Brits are not racists, we don’t like the sort of thing.

‘The longer Trump causes chaos the more support Reform will lose’

 

The longer Trump causes chaos the more support Reform will lose. I suspect they will eventually end with between 15-20%; perhaps that’s our natural level of racism?

 

 

 

“Four months later, the ghettos are in flame Rubin’s in South America fightin’ for his name” ⁽¹⁾

 

 

Notes:

1. The lyrics are taken from Bob Dylan’s 1975 protest song “Hurricane”, which tells the true story of Rubin “Hurricane” Carter, a Black middleweight boxer wrongly convicted of a 1966 triple murder in New Jersey. The song highlights racial profiling, flawed evidence, and corrupt police work, detailing how Carter and John Artis were framed. Dylan’s advocacy helped secure a retrial, and after serving nearly 20 years, Carter was freed

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

 

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