The Times They Are A-Changin’: Hope! 

 

 

“But now I see with my own two eyes
The problem was all right down to you” ⁽¹⁾ 

 

Hope! was the theme of this week’s Labour conference. 

 

Soundbites aside, there was also some intent as PM Burnham named and shamed: “Deindustrialisation, deregulation, privatisation, austerity, Brexit.” 

There was a return to class politics in his condemnation of a society “run for vested interests, not in the public interest, with power held in too few hands”. 

An example of this is the continuing hollowing-out of the UK stock market, with the value of mergers and acquisitions of listed companies surging 175% in 2026 to £100bn, as overseas predators buy British companies, threatening the future of the London stock market 

The winners are the gilded few; fees paid to investment bankers, lawyers and accountants working on these deals topped £1.2bn, helping drive multimillion-pound pay packets. 

There was also content. 

The pensions triple-lock is being phased out. From 2030, assuming Burnham is still PM, pensions will rise by the highest out of inflation or 2.5%. 

The link to average earning is replaced by a backstop for years where earnings are higher than inflation or 2.5%, the government will guarantee that the state pension will be at least 30% of average earnings. 

The change could save C.£15bn a year by 2040, and as help sustain the public finances. The Office for Budget Responsibility has predicted that C.9% of GDP would have been spent on state pensions by 2075/76 if the triple lock had remained in place –  up from 5% currently. 

Voters have responded positively to the change, with this morning a YouGov poll showing 48% in favour and 28% against. 

In turn, a universal national care service, to which everyone contributes and from which everyone can benefit, free at the point of use, will be partly funded by the change to the triple-lock. However, more funding will be required, leading to suggestions that Labour seek to increases taxes in their next election manifesto. 

It has been well documents that our electoral system throws up unrepresentative results, including this current governments large majority. Whilst there will be at least one more election under the old system, the PM announced a national commission to report on voting options, with the recommendations to be included in Labour’s next manifesto. 

On the subject of Brexit, Burham said, “Brexit has done more harm than good,” citing depressed economic growth and a lack of the promised control over immigration. 

 

“Brexit has done more harm than good”

 

However, there doesn’t seem  to be any coherent plan, other than using the forthcoming EU summit to “lay out to the country what I believe the different options are for Britain’s long-term relationship with our European partners” and to “see if we can find consensus around one”. 

In a plan that feels more symbolic than anything, Burnham said the environment secretary, Angela Eagle, would present a changed water bill to parliament, the “centrepiece” of which would be “the repeal of Margaret Thatcher’s ideological ban on public ownership of water companies”. 

Previously, the PM had described water “an industry where the shareholders never lose and the bill payers never win”.  

What wasn’t said is how we take public control of private companies and compensate existing shareholders.  

There has been talk of a  “special administration” regime that keeps the taps running while shareholders are wiped out, creditors take a haircut and the firm’s £19bn of debt is restructured.  

Water privatisation is almost unique to England and Wales: 90% of other countries favour public ownership, rather than creating a natural monopoly which offers no competition to raise standards and leaves consumers captive to financiers eyeing easy profits. A study by Greenwich University calculates that nationalisation could save households up to £160 a year by accessing low-cost state financing. 

True to form, this week Thames’s leaky infrastructure led to schools, businesses and homes across seven boroughs suffering as a burst water main reportedly leaked 750 litres a second. 

On the subject of housing, the PM reflected of the times when a working wage allowed people to buy their own home, announcing plans to help first-time buyers with a 20% equity loan to help them buy a new-build, with an initial interest-free period. 

 

“an industry where the shareholders never lose and the bill payers never win”

 

 

Chancellor Healey is a very different character to the chirpy PM. Despite this, his speech to conference echoed the PM’s upbeat vision of a reindustrialised Britain with fresh opportunities for young people, but how we pay for it was glossed-over. 

He told conference: “That commitment is so important. There is nothing progressive about losing control because it’s always working people who pay for it.” 

 What he can do is constrained by the manifesto’s pledge of “The rock of fiscal discipline. It underwrites every promise this government makes … we can’t succeed without it.” 

What leeway he might have had to support households impacted by increased energy costs due to America’s foolishness in Iran, is increasingly undermined by the global bond sell-off increasing debt-servicing costs. 

 

“The money New Labour had in the 90s is simply not there now.” 

 

He reminded listeners that  “The money New Labour had in the 90s is simply not there now.”  The world is very different and he highlighted “13 years of flatlining tory growth in living standards when Cameron’s austerity gutted our public services, when Johnson’s Brexit hammered our exports and Truss’s mini budget crashed our economy.” 

On a more positive note, he signalled the intent of welfare reforms to tackle a sharp rise in youth unemployment, saying that it “falls to us to act” to overhaul the benefits system and it is “simply not progressive to allow a bigger and bigger benefits bill”. 

There was talk of the benefits of new industries, creating good jobs for young people, and local apprenticeship, with claims that Neets could form “the future workforce of a reindustrialised Britain”, adding that he hoped they could move “from generation jeopardy to generation hope”. 

Of course, the arbiter of Labour’s revamp is the electorate. 

Resent analysis by Peter Kellner of a YouGov survey, shows voters intent to defeat Reform.  

Tactical voting is to the fore, with a Burnham bounce in the number of Greens who would now vote tactically for Labour. LibDem supporters were always of that mind, although there has been a slight increase in the number. 

 

‘Burnham is still bouncing, and the next milestone is the forthcoming budget’

 

There has also been an increase in the number of Labour, Green and Lib Dem supporters willing to lend their votes to the Tories in Reform-Conservative contests. 

Tory voters are equally considering their voting tactic, with the number willing to support Labour over  Reform doubling.  

What this might mean in terms of seats won is that Reform would win only 11 for Reform and, with 187 for the Tories, the right falls short of a majority. Whereas, for the progressive parties, Labour, with 294, and the  LibDems with 73, a progressive coalition is feasible . 

In conclusion, Burnham is still bouncing, and the next milestone is the forthcoming budget.  

 

 

“I wish we’d wake up one day, an′ everyone feel moved” ⁽²⁾ 

 

I have detected a continual reluctance to our new PM.

To say he’s a step-up on the last is scant praise, but everything is comparable. He appears to be a step-up on a number of recent incumbents.

If he has an Achilles’ heel, it will be how he is perceived to deal with the ongoing cost of living crisis.

As I wrote before, the issues are supply-side, imported due to foolishness elsewhere.

Their isn’t free funds available to turn on the taps and use “helicopter money, and the BoE look set to increase interest rates which will only make matter worse.

Ironically, I agree with Trump; we need lower interest rates. His epitaph will be that his problems are totally self-inflicted.

Burham is identifying our problems, Brexit and neoliberalism are to the fore. Both are what this column has constantly attacked, and it is refreshing to see someone have the courage and ability to challenge this.

Can he succeed? We have to hope so. Reform might be down but they aren’t out.

Burnham might be all that stands between us and Farage!

Lyrically, we start with “Hope” by Wah! and end by recognising how things can change in a short period of time with “My Ever Changing Moods” by The Style Council.

Enjoy the seemingly endless summer!

Philip

 

@coldwarsteve

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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