The Times They Are A-Changin’: For Whom The Bell Tolls 

 

 

“When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross.” 

 

 

Culturally and politically eras end at unspecific times, rather than neatly falling into line with decades or electoral cycles. 

 

Some 18-months into his second, and supposed final term as president, I wonder if the Trump era is over? 

To date there have been a series of losses. 

His policy of tariffs has been ruled against by the supreme court, and are creating increased inequality as they impact most on those with the least. Projections indicate an average cost of roughly $600 per household, with some estimates citing up to $1,300–$1,500 in added costs for goods like cars, clothes, and electronics, with C. 94%–96% of the tariff burden paid for by American importers and consumers, not foreign exporters. 

This has fuelled inflationary pressures by up to 50bps.  

 

‘I wonder if the Trump era is over?‘

 

Further inflationary pressure has been caused by his illegal war with Iran. Inflation, which Trump had promised to defeat on day 1, is now C.40% higher than when he was inaugurated.  

Another part of Trump’s plan to reassert America’s greatness was based on fossil fuels, today oil is helping to enrich Iran.    

Elsewhere the economy and stock market could be set for recession. 

The stock market, driven almost entirely by the AI boom, could sell-off as it becomes clear that there are alternatives. 

AI aside, the tech sector could see pushback as firms run into European regulatory hurdles and purges. 

The war with Iran is, at best, looking like a draw. However, given the military might of America that represents a loss of face, if nothing else. 

It has also served to show what a disaster this administration is, based on total subordination and a general air of confusion. 

The confusion is highlighted by the two-week ceasefire, in which no one is able to agree on what precisely – if anything – had been negotiated and which Israel has taken to mean it can continue to bomb Lebanon. 

VP Vance said there was a “legitimate misunderstanding” about whether the ceasefire included Lebanon, saying: “We never made that promise”. Whereas, Pakistan’s PM, Shehbaz Sharif, who posted the terms of the ceasefire on Tuesday, said that the agreement did include a ceasefire in Lebanon. 

The basis for the ceasefire appears to be Iran’s 10-points, which are little more than their pre-existing demands. If so, Tehran has made little in the way of real concessions in agreeing to begin talks. 

Key within these points is the fact that there will be no restrictions on Iran’s enrichment programme. 

Whilst there has been a change of leadership, it is name only, and, if anything, the regime looks even more entrenched. 

Also, with Iran seeking to monetise the straits of Hormuz to the tune of $2m per vessel, it is hard to see what Trump has gained from his excursion.  

Adding to the overall air of insanity is the secretary of war, Pete Hegseth, who had declared the war a total success, even though there is no sign of regime change in Iran, the US is still trying to knock out the nukes that were supposed to have been eliminated previously and Iran now effectively has control of the strait of Hormuz, which it didn’t before the war started. 

 

‘Adding to the overall air of insanity is the secretary of war, Pete Hegseth’

 

Saving the best to last he said: “No Americans have been put in harm’s way”. Clearly, the 13 service members  killed in the last month, had slipped his mind. 

Of course, for every loser there is a winner, in this case China, with Beijing’s powerbrokers being credited with pushing Iran towards agreeing to the ceasefire, bolstering its status as a regional mediator. 

There is a more personal loss, that of Trump’s credibility. His behaviour, bellicose language, and morality damage not only him, the office he holds, but that of the US too. 

Pre-Trump II, the US bestrode the globe, being seen as a protector of democracy, a guarantor of peace, and a leader in the post-WW2 world of the UN and Nato. 

Today, this is history. Whatever Europe’s leaders might pretend they are turning inwards in the realisation that the US, is, if not their enemy, no longer their friend. 

It seems inconceivable that a US president would seek to annex Greenland, a part of Europe, but that is exactly what Trump intends, or, at least intended. 

This has resulted in another post that borders on madness: “NATO WASN’T THERE WHEN WE NEEDED THEM, AND THEY WON’T BE THERE IF WE NEED THEM AGAIN. REMEMBER GREENLAND, THAT BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE!!!” 

How Trump deals with Nato membership will provide a clue to how his presidency plays out. A law passed by Congress in 2023, prevents any US president from pulling out of Nato without its approval. 

 

‘His behaviour, bellicose language, and morality damage not only him, the office he holds, but that of the US’

 

Should he be allowed to bypass Congress it will be one more nail in the coffin of US democracy. 

All of this begs the question; where next for America? 

The Democrats still appear to be leaderless, and the Republicans seem oblivious to the fact that their party was captured from underneath them by the Right.  

From a MAGA perspective, retaining Trump keeps the political instability pot boiling over, enabling them to continue with the narrative that Trump is the person to fight their corner with elites.  

The reality is simple. Trump, in-common with all populists, despise the people, they are merely cannon fodder at election time. 

Trump majored on economic policy, especially the cost of living, but his policies of tariffs, high-end tax cuts, and slashing regulations are based on the classic neoliberalism that created the inequality that his MAGA voters want rectified. 

His war with the elite, the establishment is only leading to the creation of new elites and establishment; his tech bros. 

It would appear, that with personal approval score of -20, the electorate has realised that the emperor is wearing no clothes. Joining them are a number of high-profile Maga stalwarts who are appalled by his Operation Epic Fury and his threats to strike civilian and energy infrastructure. Also, overseas wars weren’t supposed happen in Maga-land. 

Former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson called the strategy “vile on every level”, saying that “not even a month and a half into the conflict … we’re going to use our military to kill the civilians of this country”. 

 

“You can have a good leader, and they just go crazy. That’s the madness of a king.” 

 

Marjorie Taylor Greene – previously one of Trump’s most reliable allies on Capitol Hill – has joined Democrats in calling for his removal under the 25th amendment. Conspiracy theorist and right-wing broadcaster Alex Jones also urged Trump’s overthrow. “You can have a good leader, and they just go crazy. That’s the madness of a king.” 

Candace Owens, once a darling of the Maga movement, reiterated her condemnation of the bombing campaign, calling Trump “a genocidal lunatic” and urging Congress and the military to intervene. 

As a Brit my knowledge of the US constitution is limited.  

Having researched the subject, there is Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, which authorises high-level officials – either the VP and a majority of the Cabinet or another body designated by Congress – to remove a president from office without his consent when he is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” Congress has yet to designate an alternative body, and scholars disagree over the role, if any, of acting Cabinet officials. 

Where this goes is anyone’s guess. 

 

‘once Trump II happened I feared America would slip into dictatorship, I am seeing nothing that changes this’

 

Personally, once Trump II happened I feared America would slip into dictatorship, I am seeing nothing that changes this. 

 

“They destroyed our families’ factories and they took our homes
They left our bodies on the plains, the vultures picked our bones” 

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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