The Times They Are A-Changin’: Down, But Not Out? 

 

 

“From the past until completion
They’ll turn away no more”  

 

 

The US electorate has delivered a damning verdict on the Trump administration and the president himself. The result of the midterms represent an even more crushing defeat for the party than was experienced post-Watergate. Trump’s handpicked many of the defeated “Maga” candidates, resulting in Republican party losing control of the Senate and the House. 

 

Aa good example of the magnitude of this defeat was James Talarico becoming the first Democrat to be sent by Texas to the US Senate since 1988, supported by Gina Hinojosa becoming the first Democratic governor of Texas in 36-yrs.  

Hinojosa’s election as the state’s first Latina governor is a clear repudiation of Trumpism, and his racism. The campaign unleashed by ICE against Hispanics in Texas led to many voters who had backed him 2-yrs ago to see the error of their ways. 

Another historic first was in Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a doctor and progressive insurgent, became the country’s first Muslim senator. 

His opponent Mike Rogers and other detractors, including Trump, led a largely Islamophobic campaign against him, often pointing to his name and faith, including the president alleging he was a “jihadist” and that he would need to walk through a metal detector to get into the Senate. 

Hakeem Jeffries, who will become the first Black speaker of the House in US history, said of the results:  “America is back. Today begins the great American comeback. The American people have spoken all across the land, from sea to shining sea, and made clear they have had enough of the extremism and corruption.” 

The size of the defeat is such that even Trump can’t claim the result was rigged.   

 

‘The size of the defeat is such that even Trump can’t claim the result was rigged’

 

The campaign was predictably unpleasant, but election officials (including Republicans) pushed back against voter-suppression efforts. Gerrymandering proved ineffective – with black voters turning out in response, and Latino voters whom Republicans counted on, reverted back to the Democrats. 

Hispanic voters, who naïvely believed Trump would bring prices down, turned against an administration that is arresting, imprisoning and deporting their friends and families. Blacks turned out to defeat a transparently racist party that is trying to take away their voting rights. Lastly, the vast majority were  repelled by the administration’s cruelty and its open corruption. 

The culture war attacks, vile bigotry and personal smears were counterproductive, as was the huge spending of Elon Musk and other big tech donors, with a voter revolt against datacentres and cronyism.  

As to the reasons behind the result; the obvious explanation is Trumpflation created by tariffs and the Iran debacle. However, in 2024, when Trump mobilised public anger over high prices he only won by 1.5%, on Tuesday the Democrats won by 13 -14%. 

Instead, the electorate finally realised that Trump was a president hellbent on destroying everything America stands for. Many are repelled by Trumpism, and are turning back to, and reaffirming their belief in the country’s basic values.   

From January, the incoming Democrats will have a working majority in both Houses, and there is already talk of them using their oversight and subpoena powers to investigate the most egregious of Trump’s excesses. This will include the financial enrichment of himself and his family, which Democratic leaders have said amounts to corruption. 

Should they seek to impeach Trump, they will need to prove specific constitutional infractions outlined in Article II, Section 4: Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanours. 

The House of Representatives would then investigate the alleged wrongdoing, draft the indictment, and  debate and votes on each article. A simple majority vote (51%) of members present is required to adopt the articles. 

If any article passes, the president is officially impeached, but remains in office while the process moves to the Senate, with the requirement of a two-thirds supermajority vote; at least 67 out of 100 senators. With two seats undeclared the Democrats hold 54, meaning that, in the worst case scenario 13 Republicans would have to vote against Trump. 

In the meantime, the incoming Democrats are also expected to hit the White House with a blizzard of war powers resolutions designed to pressure Trump to end his Iran war. They are also expected to challenge his tariffs regime, to rein in ICE and its mass deportation efforts, and move to reinstate cuts to Medicaid, healthcare subsidies and other welfare benefits. 

With the Senate also under their control, Democrats will be able to block many of Trump’s judicial and cabinet appointments, although they might struggle to pass major legislation, given the 60-vote filibuster,  

They will also seek to bring relief to hard-up working people. As the Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer told them: “Relief is on the way.” 

In return, Trump is  unlikely to accept this situation, and has made it clear that he intends to block any Democratic-initiated legislation by wielding what he called “tremendous powers”, meaning he can use the presidential right to veto. 

 

‘Trump is  unlikely to accept this situation’

 

Of course, this is still Trump, a president who, to date, has paid little attention to Congress, apart from the passage of his Big, Beautiful Act of tax and spending measures. He has acted unilaterally on tariffs and military strikes on Venezuela and Iran.  

Like his predecessors, he will likely continue to pursue foreign policy as a legacy project, and push on with his obsessive Washington makeovers, such as the new White House ballroom, a triumphal arch and more gold. Perhaps, Congress might be best served indulging this rather than leaving him to wreak havoc elsewhere. 

For the ordinary American life continues to be expensive. As NYC mayor Mamdani constantly reminds voters; this isn’t just because prices are unreasonably high it’s also because their pay is unfairly low. He, quite rightly, sees the correlation between the cost of living and inequality. 

Starting with Reagan, both Republicans and Democrat presidents have overseen a change to the tax code that rewards ownership rather than earnings. As a result, the richest 400 households now pay lower rates of tax than the bottom 50% of Americans. As the economists Fred Magdoff and John Bellamy Foster show in their new book, “Grand Theft Capital: What Workers Should Know About the Affordability Crisis”, the share of national income going to ordinary workers has fallen from 30% in the 1960s to 20% today. 

Also, much of the economies supposed success in recent years is illusory.  

Trump boasts of a economy that is the “hottest country in the world”, whereas it is little more than a huge gamble on AI. For the first half of 2025, the Harvard economist Jason Furman estimated that spending on AI infrastructure made up 92% of GDP growth.  

 

‘The real fight in this country is not left versus right. It is top versus bottom’

 

In October, the fund manager Apollo pointed out that, of the entire S&P500 companies, only the so-called “magnificent seven” tech firms were flourishing. The other 493 were seeing flat revenues and flat profits. Torsten Slok, Apollo’s chief economist, wrote: “Despite massive investments and widespread hype around artificial intelligence, the technology has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America.” 

AI needs datacentres, unfortunately the electorate doesn’t want their construction.  

Texas is, in the next 2-yrs, expected to become the centre for datacentres in the US, providing over 25% of all new computing power to the AI industry.  

This must now be in doubt as the incumbent Democrat senator, James Talarico, was elected on an anti-datacentre agenda. 

The last word goes to him: “The real fight in this country is not left versus right. It is top versus bottom … The people at the top divide us by party, by race, by gender, by religion, by culture, so we don’t notice that they are picking our pockets. But tonight, we sent a crystal clear message to the people at the top, we will not be conquered.” 

 

“You gotta fight for your right to party 
You gotta fight”  

 

 

So, US voters have finally woken-up to the fact that king Donald is a conman, bent on self-enrichment, and ethnonationalism, and reshaping the world in-line with the axis of evil.

Trump’s failure is a good example of believing his own publicity. Had he avoided tariffs and war with Iran, inflation would be lower, the US wouldn’t be quite so unpopular in other countries, and he might have succeeded.

Perhaps we should be thankful for his follies. This is the beginning of the end of Trumpism, MAGA, and the pernicious influence of the tech barons.

If we add the seemingly likely implosion of some AI providers, and the private finance funds that have supported them, the tech barons have much to contemplate

The final nail in that coffin might be the anti-datacentre attitude of many Americans and incoming Democrat politicians.

There is much to ponder.

However, to words of warning:

Trump is still president. Whilst he might be neutered domestically, he will have more freedom over foreign policy. Will he restart aggression with Iran? Will he sell Ukraine further down the river?

Secondly, whilst Trump might be fast becoming history, that doesn’t prevent a look-alike from coming along.

Lyrically, we dedicate “Blue Monday” by New Order to Trump as I couldn’t find a blue Tuesday song. We end with “Fight For Your Right” by Beastie Boys because Americans are doing just that.

A good weekend to all

Philip.

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

 

Click on the link to see all Brexit Bulletins: