The Times They Are A-Changin’: Can you fool all of the people all of the time? 

 

“You’re a fool to cry
And it makes me wonder why”

 

This weekend saw one of the most inexplicable actions from a US president in my memory. 

 

Trump’s agreement to buy Russian diesel overturned years of US and western pressure on the Kremlin to end its war against Ukraine, and set America on a fresh collision course with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president and his European allies. 

Zelenskyy said “back room deals” with the Russian leader would enable Putin to prosecute the war with renewed vigour. 

Legally, Trump cannot do this as the sanctions preventing the purchase of Russian oil are law. As we know, Trump appears to regards laws as guidelines to be ignored when inconvenient. 

This is a president who, as he has said, is only constrained by “my own morality.” This morality has allowed him to brazenly flout the law, embrace dictators and rhetorical attacks all of which undermine global standards. 

Trump rationale for the deal was the need to reduce fuel prices, which have soared as a result of his war against Iran whose promptly closed the strait of Hormuz, blocking what is a passageway for 20% of global oil supplies. While fuel costs have risen for motorists, it is the price of diesel that endangers Trump and Republican chances in midterms. 

The deal, on the surface looks impressive, with 300,000 tonnes of diesel being shipped immediately followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and a further 1m tonnes after that.  

However, it is little more than a token gesture; 300,000 tonnes equates to C.75% of what the US would use in a day, according to calculations using figures from the US Energy Information Administration. 

Undeterred after betraying the west, Trump has since announced an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Unfortunately, he hadn’t consulted Zelenskyy, who said the deal to stop long-range attacks was “news to me”. 

This latest show of support for Putin’s rogue Russia shows how Trump’s America are prepared to sell Ukraine out. Trump has constantly complained that Zelensky resits peace overtures. But, what he is brokering isn’t peace, it is just demands that Ukraine to surrender to a hostile Russia, and that the  democratically elected president, Zelensky, should go. 

 

‘Trump’s America are prepared to sell Ukraine out’

 

This might be the opening shots in the Trump administrations attempts to undermine the EU, an institutions it hates. If so, this will likely to encourage more Russian aggression towards countries such as Lithuania and Poland. 

From a European prospective there is also the threat from the enemy within, which openly support the US and Russian regimes. 

In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) would happily abandon Ukraine to Russia. In France, the National Rally’s presidential candidate, Marine Le Pen, says her country can’t afford to go on giving so much to Ukraine. Solidarity with Ukraine is also crumbling on the right in Poland, with two smaller parties sounding anti-Ukrainian. In a recent Italian opinion poll, over half those asked were opposed to continued weapons deliveries to Kyiv. 

Previously, it was said that America under Trump is no loner Europe’s ally, now, it might be more accurate to say they are Europe’s enemy.  

There is, as always a bigger picture; Trump and the Republican’s are struggling domestically, and with the midterms only weeks away, they appear increasingly desperate.  

 

‘it might be more accurate to say they are Europe’s enemy’

 

His second terms was meant to help those left behind by globalisation, foreign competition and industrial decline, instead all he has delivered is inflation and tax cuts for the rich. 

He justifies this by boasting of a vibrant economy, but, aside from a booming, possibly too frothy stock market, the reality is very different. 

The growth in the national debt is now $40trn, 12x what it was in 1990, whilst tax revenues have been impacted by unfunded cuts have only grown by 5x. 

The burgeoning national debt limits what might be done in the event of a crisis without risking massive inflation. The size of the debt can’t solely be blamed on poor spending decisions, it is the result of inequitable tax cuts, which have done little to support economic growth. 

Inflating away the scale of the debt, as Trump has proposed, would be a disaster for the economy, likely triggering higher rates and destructive hyper-stagflation. 

His war on Iran, with its direct impact on the cost of living has boosted support for Democrats, with surveys showing them with a 9-point lead. 

 

‘a disaster for the economy, likely triggering higher rates and destructive hyper-stagflation’

 

If this is reflected at the polls, the Democrats would win a clear majority in the House of Representatives, and there is a strong possibility of them also capturing the Senate. 

Traditional Republican states such as Texas and Alaska are under threat from Democrat challengers. A case in-point is Kansas – which Trump carried by 16 points, and which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932 – where the race is neck and neck. 

Increasingly, candidates who had previously benefited from Trump’s endorsement, are distancing themselves from him because he alienates voters, who can see that he is more interested in his vanity construction projects than whether they can pay their bills.  

The self-enrichment at the court of King Donald has, at last, made voters realise that it is Republicans who are “elitist” not the Democrats. Latino voters, who had defected from the Democrats are now coming back to them, mainly due to the excesses of  ICE. 

In desperation, the big Republican donors have turned on the spending taps, which has enabled the party to book $700m of advertising since the start of September. Alongside this, Trump has been illegally using taxpayer-funded adverts to support his presidency.  

 

‘Trump is a damaged and wounded president, which makes him all the more dangerous’

 

Should, as the polls indicate, Trump fare badly in the midterms, there is little likelihood of him accepting the result, just as he did in 2021. 

The difference today is, does he still have the MAGA base to support his protests? 

Trump is a damaged and wounded president, which makes him all the more dangerous. Not just to America, but to everywhere and everyone else. 

 

 

“Playing the fool again
Here we go again
Acting hard again, alright”  

 

 

Today, we look across the Atlantic, as an increasingly desperate president and Republican party try to save face before November’s midterms.

The cost-of-living crisis, involvement in overseas wars, and peace in Ukraine were on Trump’s immediate to-do-list. Score to date: none from three, although minus 3 might be more accurate.

So, trying to kill all three birds with one stone, Trump’s solution is to import diesel from Russia. This, he thinks, will lower fuel prices and therefore inflation, overcome Iran’s chokehold on oil, and enable Russia to damage Ukraine.

Other than making life more difficult for Ukraine, it will achieve nothing. It is also illegal, but, when was that a problem?

What it has done is confirm the US as a rogue state and a paid-up member of my axis of evil. It also confirms to me that the US is Russia’s ally and is on the way to becoming Europe’s enemy.

Interestingly, today the head of MI5, Ken McCallum said that Russia remains “aggressor number one” as the Kremlin continues to lash out against the West with assassination plots, explosive threats and cyber-attacks that at times stop “not much short” of conventional warfare.

He also confirmed that Moscow tried to interfere in the 2016 Brexit referendum with anti-EU coverage on RT and Sputnik media, and via troll social media accounts, but there was a big difference between “what may have been attempted and what actually resulted”.

Lyrically, we open with “Fool to Cry” by The Rolling Stones, and end with an old favourite of this column, “Beginning to See the Light” by The Velvet Underground.

Enjoy!

Philip.

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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