The Times They Are A-Changin’: Brave New World 

 

 

“O brave new world, that has such people in’t!”  

 

In recent weeks genZ has taken to the streets in places as far flung as Serbia to Bangladesh and India to France, as young people push back against authoritarianism and reshaping political landscapes. 

 

In Brazil, after the first round of voting the right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro appeared set to assume power, then students from the Fluminense Federal University mobilised in a pro-Lula march, which led to a wave of similar actions across the country. This was followed by a Lula ally, André Janones,  creating a WhatsApp channel called “Lula’s Army” that attracted millions of people looking to help boost pro-Lula content on social media. 

In Serbia, students were at the helm of another revolution as they cycled across Europe and ran ultramarathons to make their voices heard, as they pushed back against a government that had steadily tightened its grip on the media and stuffed institutions with party loyalists. 

 In both instances, genZ played a central role in election campaigns which pushed-back against authoritarianism.  

As Erica Chenoweth, a political scientist at Harvard Kennedy School, said: “Gen Z. It is abundantly clear that a significant proportion of gen Z is tired of sitting on the sidelines while their political systems fail them.” 

 

‘It is abundantly clear that a significant proportion of gen Z is tired of sitting on the sidelines while their political systems fail them’

 

Researchers have documented at least 25-protests around the world in which gen Z has played a role, protesting against many things, including corruption and an unequal playing field to calling for more investment in education, affordable housing and action on the climate crisis. 

In Europe, French school students are demanding better conditions in their schools, in Spain they pitched tents to rally for affordable housing. In Germany, there has been protests against the cost of living and call for more investment in education, health and climate action in a movement organised by a group calling itself Gen Z regelt!, or Gen Z will sort this. 

What links all of these protests is the breakdown of the social contract. Arancha González, the dean of the Paris School of International Affairs, told the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. “In Europe, the idea that economies generate wellbeing and social equality has been shattered.” 

 

“In Europe, the idea that economies generate wellbeing and social equality has been shattered.”

 

The increasing awareness and activities of genZ come at an interesting time for the UK, as we appear to have a government that can admit previous mistakes and do something about them. 

One of the main issues is Brexit which, whatever way you look at it, has been a monumental failure that continues to hold the country back. 

After the 2020 leadership contest, Labour ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market, the customs union or restoring freedom of movement. The idea was to close off Brexit in voter’s minds, whilst fighting the 2024 election on a manifesto that was both pro-EU, by advocating a closer relationship that stopped short of reversing Brexit. 

The economic case for rejoining the single market is straightforward; open access to a market of 500 million people will boost GDP, raise living standards, and help to heal the public finances. 

The geopolitical situation is changed significantly different from 2016. Today, the UK and Europe face ongoing security and cyber threats from Russia, China, Iran or elsewhere, that can only be overcome by Europe as a whole.  

Europe’s traditional ally, the US, has shown under Trump that it can no longer be regarded  as our primary security partner. As a result, we can no longer pin our future security or Europe’s, on the US. 

 

‘the UK and Europe face ongoing security and cyber threats from Russia, China, Iran or elsewhere, that can only be overcome by Europe as a whole’

 

At the very least we should be seeking a defence and trade partnership, which will help bot the UK and Europe rebuild their defensive capabilities, and help to realign our economic interests. 

A way forward might be the idea of “associate membership,” as proposed by Canadas’ PM, Mark Carney.  

Another area that could benefit from EU/UK cooperation is capital markets. 

America’s great strengths is the depth of their capital markets, if European countries can cooperate something could be achieved which would enable greater growth, and provide the funds to develop new businesses. 

London, with its depth of knowledge,, talent, and beneficial time-zone, is ideally placed to be a major beneficiary of this integration. 

This realignment could start at the forthcoming EU meeting, where the PM is expected to unveil a treaty allowing closer cooperation in a wide range of areas, including eliminating customs barriers to agricultural goods, a youth-mobility programme and integration with the EU’s carbon emissions trading scheme.  

There is also talk of joining the EU’s proposed Industrial Accelerator Act, known as “Made in Europe”, which will see public procurement rules used to insulate continental industries from what many EU leaders see as unfair overseas competition – chiefly from China.  

This would introduce large-scale protectionism, to help manage down  China’s colossal trade surplus, which is causing panic among European car manufacturers. It would also enable the EU to retaliate against Trump’s tariffs. 

Brexit has left us isolated, and, whilst the PM is keen to find a way into the Made in Europe regime, doing so will be far from straightforward. The proposed rules are intended to benefit businesses inside the single market at the expense of those outside, which includes Brexit Britain.  

Whilst we might be viewed as a “trusted partner” we could still find ourselves excluded, which could leave our carmaker and other industries facing crippling new trade barriers. 

What was a mistake 10-yrs ago looks even worse today. As the case for reintegration only grows stronger  our Eurosceptic parties, the Tories and Reform, continue to paint themselves into a corner. 

 

‘What was a mistake 10-yrs ago looks even worse today’

 

Whilst the Tories are only marginally ahead of Reform in the polls, when it comes to the two leaders it’s a very different story; Reform’s Nigel Farage approval rating is -29.6, whereas the Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch is on +0.6. 

Kemi’s biggest problem is Kemi! 

She is never wrong, anyone who thinks differently is an idiot. In speeches, interviews and parliament the content is all contempt for others, self-congratulation and advice for lesser  mortals: “I was right”, “let me explain.” 

Both Kemi and the party live in rarified space: “We live in the real world”;  the party of “common sense”, “the no-nonsense party” that “get stuff done”. 

The polls tell a different story. Under Sunak in the 2024 election the party polled 24%, when Kemi became leader it was 26%, today it’s 22%. 

The world is fast changing and the Tories continue to inhabit their old comfort zones; deregulating business, building more prisons, cutting taxes for the wealthy at the expense of reduced welfare benefits, Brexit’s failure is ignored as is net zero. 

 

“I’d rather have a lucky PM than a good one.”  

 

PM Burnham may not be the panacea, but he understands. He is pragmatic not dogmatic. 

Brexit was a mistake, do something. Inequality is an issue, lets address it. 

Net zero and energy independence will be helped by this weeks’ wind farm deal. 

He might also be lucky. The economy, whilst not great, appears in better shape than many.  

The midterms might see a solution to Trumps’ ill-fated Iran adventure; oil prices are already falling. On October 23rd  Brent Crude was at $116.72, today it’s $95.70. 

To paraphrase Napoleon Bonaparte “I’d rather have a lucky PM than a good one.”  

 

“Happiness, more or less
It’s just a change in me, something in my liberty”  

 

 

Today we look at the impact Gen Z is having globally, as young people rebel against their increasingly difficult lives.

Whilst older generations continue to tell anyone who will listen how hard they had it and how the young have an easy life, they couldn’t be more wrong.

They had jobs for life, affordable housing as Europe rebuilt post WW2, were fully superannuated, and had the best of the welfare state.

The young face massive job uncertainty, which AI will only worsen. Owning a home looks increasingly unrealistic, and rents continue to increase. As for final salary pensions, remember them?

Their longevity has all but done for the welfare state. The NHS is overrun, and state pensions are underfunded. I read that the Tories will continue the triple-lock by raising the state pension age to 70.

Fortunately, we have a pragmatic PM, and, to date, a lucky one.

Only time will tell, but at least he is prepared to tell the truth about Brexit and do something about it.

Lyrically, we open with a quote from “Brave New World” by Aldous Huxley, and end with “Lucky Man” by The Verve.

A good weekend to all

Philip.

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

 

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