The Times They Are A-Changin’: Be Careful What You Wish For 

 

 

“The battle outside ragin’ 

Will soon shake your windows 

And rattle your walls 

For the times they are a-changin’” 

 

As we follow-on from “Reflections on Perceptions”, we start with this week’s Nuremberg Rally State of the Union rant by the Fuhrer President Trump, which was full of his perceptions. 

The House resembled the country, deeply polarised, with Republicans leaping-up and Zieg Heiling applauding to order. 

 

For the Democrats hadn’t skipped the event preferring to attend the  “People’s State of the Union” organized by liberal groups., they staged what one party leader called “silent defiance”, refraining from applause during much of the speech and staying in their seats.  

Of those in attendance, Al Green, the representative from Texas, held up a sign reading “Black people aren’t apes!”, before he appeared to be escorted out of the chamber. 

Another, Ilhan Omar, the Democratic congresswoman from Minnesota, said “you have killed Americans” in reference to the deaths of Alex Pretti and Renee Good in her state. 

The rant speech was the longest in history, and centred around Trump declaring his first year in office a success, despite his presidency being dogged by low public approval ratings. 

A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll found that only 39% of voters view his presidency positively, with others polls showing him unpopular on key issues such as the economy and immigration; 47% “strongly disapprove” of Trump. 

A CNN poll of independent voters found that only 26% approve of his handling of the presidency, a 15% point drop from a February 2025 poll. 

 

‘only 39% of voters view his presidency positively’

 

When it comes to some of the administration’s key priorities, respondents to the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, showed: 

 

• 58% disapprove of his handling of immigration. 

• 57% disapprove of his handling of the economy. 

• 65% disapprove of his handling of inflation 

• 64%disapprove of his handling of tariffs. 

 

Appearing to blissfully unaware of this, Trump told congress: “Tonight, after just one year, we can say with dignity and pride that we have achieved a transformation like no one has ever seen before, and a turnaround for the ages”.  

I guess it’s how you define transformation… 

 

There were numerous untruths, such as: 

 

• A Ukrainian refugee was murdered in North Carolina by an immigrant, when the suspect is a US citizen,  

• Claims that his administration “will always protect” Medicaid even though the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the main domestic legislation he has signed in his second term, mandates cuts that are expected to cost millions of people their healthcare. 

 

Democratic lawmakers, were described as “crazy”, and Somali immigrants where described as “pirates who ransacked Minnesota”, the site of a long-running and contentious immigration operations.  

Referring to the US military buildup around Iran, he said: “My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy. But one thing is certain, I will never allow the world’s number one sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon.” 

 

Aside from almost two hours of boasting, he seemingly forgot to mention of the big wins he’s delivered for the ultra-wealthy: 

 

• $1 trillion in tax cuts for the richest 1% 

• Pardons for scores of ultra-wealthy fraudsters like the billionaire Binance founder 

• Pro-polluter policies that will enrich wealthy executives while putting communities at risk 

• Dismissal of more than 20 cases against companies charged with $3 billion in consumer fraud  

• Crypto deregulation that has fuelled billionaire wealth, including a $1.5 billion increase in his family fortune 

 

Comparing Trump’s perception with reality makes interesting reading. 

 

Annual GDP growth in the Q4 of 2025 slowed to 1.4%, lower than the 3% forecast by many economists, and down from 4.4% in the previous three months. How much of this was due to last fall’s record-long 43-day government shutdown will become clear in-time. 

This isn’t the golden age that Trump promised, with voters voicing dissatisfaction over “affordability” issues, something that Trump vowed to tackle in his campaign but now dismisses as a “Democrat hoax”. Lest we forget is was Biden’s failure to adequately tackle rising prices that contributed to Trump’s victory. 

 

‘Comparing Trump’s perception with reality makes interesting reading’ 

 

His much lauded tariffs, whilst not yet history, are having to be reworked, and are likely to face further legal challenges. In addition, there is the issue of refunds of tariffs paid that were, in effect, illegal. 

 

Views on immigration are polarised between those who think he hasn’t gone far enough, and those who think he has gone far too far. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel, found: 

 

• About 80% of responses from Trump approvers mentioned immigration, along with nearly 60% of mentions among Trump disapprovers.  

• Over 40% of mentions from approvers were about securing the borders, while C.33% mentioned increased immigration enforcement or ICE.  

• Half of Trump disapprover mentions were about increased immigration enforcement or ICE. 

• C.50% of all voters say Trump has gone “too far” in enforcing his immigration agenda, despite solid backing for it at the start of his presidency. 

 

Overall, Americans oppose the tactics ICE is using to enforce immigration laws by 2:1 margin. 

Perhaps enthusiasm for ICE and its activities has spurred on our own white nativists, Reform, whose home affairs spokesperson, Zia Yusuf, proposed our own version, the UK Deportation Command. 

Yusuf’s remarks came as Reform set out plans to tackle immigration, including mass deportations, expanded surveillance powers and a ban on the conversion of churches into mosques. 

They also want to scrap indefinite leave to remain, replacing it with a renewable five-year work visa and dedicated spouse visa. There would also be a new rule mandating automatic home searches for anyone referred to the Prevent counter-terrorism programme by three “separate, corroborating authorities.” 

Yusuf said the proposed UK Deportation Command would have the capacity to detain 24,000 people at any one time and deport up to 288,000 annually, operating five flights a day. 

 

‘UK Deportation Command would have the capacity to detain 24,000 people at any one time and deport up to 288,000 annually, operating five flights a day’

 

Overall, Reform intend to deport more than 600,000 people in its first parliament. This could include a large number of individuals holding indefinite leave to remain, which would be retrospectively revoked if they failed to qualify for the proposed time-limited visas. 

Christianity will be at the centre of a patriotic school curriculum. Whist not Christian, Yusuf describes the faith as “core to the history and DNA of the country”. 

As the Guardian wrote: “It would seem that the disconnect between Yusuf’s own heritage and his criterion for intrinsic Britishness is resolved by remembering that all contradictions in nationalism are soluble in dedication to the leader. The party can believe one thing today, something else tomorrow; have a practising Muslim on the platform and blatant racists in the ranks; oppose state intervention in the economy in some sectors, demand it in others; be pro-Kremlin by instinct, anti-Putin by expedient. What matters is that the line is set by Farage and that everyone follows.” 

I have to admit to having a great distaste for immigrants that are racists. I can only assume that they think they are better than prospective immigrant, perhaps it’s a cast, or class thing? 

The contradictory nature, of  immigrant racists such as Yusuf Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, and current home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, seems at odds with Matt Goodwin, the Reform candidate in the Gorton and Denton byelection. Goodwin has claimed that people from black, Asian or other immigrant backgrounds were not always British, saying: “It takes more than a piece of paper to make somebody ‘British’.” 

The party also has its eyes on sex, with their MP and Tory defector, Danny Kruger, lamenting Britain’s “totally unregulated sexual economy”. Kruger also opposes no-fault divorces.  

Readers can only imagine my delight when I read these comments about unregulated sexual economy. After many bawdy thoughts, I settled on the appointment of a sexual regulator; we could call it the FCA!!   

 

‘After many bawdy thoughts, I settled on the appointment of a sexual regulator; we could call it the FCA!!’

 

Danny indicated he expected the party to have a “limited but important role” in resetting sexual culture, with the party’s “pronatalist ambition” leading to policies to encourage people to have more children, including exploring changes to the tax system to make payments based on households rather than individuals. 

He said policy would be “critically important to the way families form” and he suggested changes could come via the tax system to mean that partners compile a household tax return rather than individually. 

Readers may remember my 2023 piece entitled “Doing it for England”, which, with Reform’s proposed tax benefits, should ensure a happy ending! 

As with the US, our own politics have become increasingly polarised. 

Reform, and likely right-wing Tory voters, want to cut tax and public spending, measures which are opposed by progressive voters 

On the climate crisis, 86% of Reform members would abandon net zero, whereas progressive support the idea, as does 69% of the wider public. 

On immigration, 98% of Reform members and 92% of Tory members say it’s too high, whereas only 34% of Labour members think that. 

Reform voters, when asked what qualities they wanted from a leader, said: “prepared to break the rules in order to get things done”, “prepared to hurt the feelings of others without worrying about the consequences”, “I like self-confident leaders who regard themselves as exceptional individuals” who “need to be able to dominate people and show a bit of aggression now and then”.  

These attributes are rejected by progressives, who overwhelmingly choose “strong moral compass” as their prime quality for a leader.  

I can understand why voters are turning to Reform, years of neglect under both Labour and the Conservatives have left people feeling abandoned. The cost of living crisis continues to bite. Access to healthcare, housing, social services and decent education is strained. Austerity has cut particularly deep in many areas, with towns often forgotten until a byelection rolls around.  

The problems are real – but the solutions Reform offer are not. Their politics is based on fear and scapegoating, and is openly racist. Migrants are blamed for everything, while the real issue, the inequality caused by the current iteration of capitalism that favours the few, goes unchallenged. Reform’s enthusiasm for the comments of Jim Ratcliffe, an out-of-touch tax exile pointing at migrants while hoarding his wealth, illustrates the distraction perfectly. 

 

‘The problems are real – but the solutions Reform offer are not’

 

It is increasingly clear that neither the PM or his advisers can see what it is happening in front of them.  The majority of Reform voters are lost, they aren’t coming back. If Labour is to retain credibility, and perhaps remain in government, it needs to turn left, back to its roots. 

Last evenings defeat in the former safe seat of Gorton and Denton whilst not surprising, was avoidable. They could have selected Andy Burnham, the popular Manchester may as their candidate, a move that was blocked by Mandelson inspired McSweeney led right-wing of the party, with the blessing of the PM. The latter because, he knew that returning Burnham to Westminster meant a leadership challenge he was likely to lose.  

Hannah Spencer, a local plumber and Green party councillor, won the byelection, overturning Labour’s 13,000 majority. 

Labour came third, 5,616 votes behind the Greens on 14,980 votes, while Reform UK finished second with 10,578 votes. The result represents a 25.3% drop in Labour’s vote compared to 2024. 

In her victory speech, Hannah Spencer, said: “Instead of working for a nice life, we’re working to line the pockets of billionaires. We’re being bled dry. And I don’t think it’s extreme or radical to think that working hard should get you a nice life”. 

She also emphasised community solidarity and said she would call out politicians “who constantly scapegoat and blame our communities for all the problems in society. My Muslim friends and neighbours are just like me – human.” 

 

‘two pillars of Labour’s traditional support – white, working-class voters and ethnic minorities – had deserted them’

 

A Labour councillor in the constituency said the party had not been forgiven by many of its Muslim voters for its stance on Gaza – an issue capitalised on by the Greens. 

John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said the result underlined how two pillars of Labour’s traditional support – white, working-class voters and ethnic minorities – had deserted them. 

What we saw yesterday, was a split in the left-wing vote, similar to the division of the right’s votes between  Reform and Conservatives in the last election, which led to a landslide victory for Labour. 

Luke Tryl of More in Common suggested that it was “the parties that offer the greatest change from the status quo” that are benefitting from this polarisation in voting intentions. 

 As a statement, that is technically correct, but, on a practical level, they are just different sides of the same coin. Clearly, one is right-wing and the other left, but both are populists. As with Trump, they both deliver simple sounding solutions to difficult problems, which they promise to deliver quickly. 

Unfortunately, the solutions are neither simple, and delivering them will take time. Probably longer than out instant, social media obsessed world will allow any politician, other than an authoritarian one. 

Authoritarians have no use for democracy, and those in opposition tend not to fare too well. 

As they say, “be careful what you wish for…” 

 

“So this is it 

This is what I wished for, just isn’t how I envisioned it” 

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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