Oct
2026
The Times They Are A-Changin’: Bankrupt!
DIY Investor
17 October 2026
“It hurts to set you free
But you’ll never follow me”
The good news is that America isn’t going bust. Although this might only be because they can control the printing presses of the $.
The bad news is that the economy is in a mess, and the stock-market seems frothy.
The US market is dominated by the Magnificent 7, whose share prices appear predicated on the anticipated success of AI. Whilst the technology is significant, there are questions over profitability, and concerns over the impact of higher interest rates on their massive capital spending.
As a result, collectively, 20 of the most valuable global AI and semiconductor stocks have lost more than $1 trillion this week.
Nvidia, whose value has reduced by C.$300bn, are infamous for their circularity financing of chip sales to datacentres which could, in turn, magnify losses.
Other losers include AMD, Intel and Dell Technologies.
CoreWeave is being talked about as a guide for any AI reset, as it shows how revenue growth is failing to cover rising debt costs.
’20 of the most valuable global AI and semiconductor stocks have lost more than $1 trillion this week’
Elsewhere, South Korean chip giant SK Hynix plunged more than 10%, while rival Samsung Electronics fell 8.73%. Other South Korean chip-related stocks also came under pressure. LG Innotek sank 8.95%, Seoul Semiconductor shed 9.28% and Samsung SDI declined 6.26%.
For consumers, whilst Trump inherited a relatively benign inflation picture and promised to banish inflation, his tariffs and Iran war have had the opposite effect.
Increasing petrol prices have greatly impacted living costs, but a bigger issue is the ever increasing cost of diesel, which has risen at >double petrol prices over the past year. This has rippled through the economy, raising business costs and driving inflation across a wide range of products.
Trump’s deal with Putin is a Band-Aid as the quantity it promises is too small to make much difference, a fact reflected in wholesale diesel prices, which remain painfully high.
‘Trump inherited a relatively benign inflation picture and promised to banish inflation, his tariffs and Iran war have had the opposite effect’
Money aside, morally the US looks increasingly bankrupt, as Trump seems determined to win Putin’s Ukraine war for him. Since re-election he has ended American weapons transfers and sales to Ukraine and, more recently, agreed to buy Russian diesel after blaming high domestic fuel prices on Ukraine’ success it striking against Russia’s energy sector.
The apparent motivation behind the diesel deal is quick fix for lower prices before the midterms. However, the deal is fraught with uncertainties, such as whether Russia can actually deliver the fuel, given its domestic shortages.
There is also the fact that the supply of diesel on the global market will not change, therefore, neither will its price. As a result, US taxpayers could end-up paying more for this supposed gift.
Other that Putin, the only winner is the Trump family through the deal Jared Kushner has struck to buy Lukoil.
Worse still, is the US apparently cutting-off Ukraine’s access to Starshield, the military derivative of Starlink, a system that Ukraine pays for.
‘morally the US looks increasingly bankrupt’
The system had enabled Ukraine to receive early-warnings of incoming missile and drone attacks. Turing-off the system has raised suspicion of coordinated pressure to tip the scales in Russia’s favour after many months when Russian forces have failed to deliver significant advances and the economy impact that of increasingly effective Ukrainian missile and drones.
It increasingly clear that the order to block access to Starshield came from Trump. This was confirmed by Elon Musk, the owner of Starlink, who said: “Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the US government. Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS.
Starlink is a commercial service owned and controlled by SpaceX. Usage of Starlink is limited to civilian or defensive activities and cannot be used for offensive military action, as doing so would be inappropriate for a commercial company.”
This appears to be a retaliatory measure after Trump’s claims that Ukraine’s targeting of Russian oil refineries is impacting US consumers, which, in-turn threatens Republican prospects in next month’s midterms.
This is, of course, a red herring: the real cause is his own Iran war. However, it suits Trump’s narrative of never being wrong, and allows him to revive the ridiculous claims that Ukrainian intransigence rather than Russian aggression is the reason why his promise to broker a peace deal remains unfulfilled.
‘allows him to revive the ridiculous claims that Ukrainian intransigence rather than Russian aggression is the reason why his promise to broker a peace deal remains unfulfilled’
This alleged withdrawal of intelligence will further damage relations with America’s NATO allies, and will further weaken future working relationships, with European nations uncertain as to whether the US will honour its commitments.
Trump’s pro-Russian foreign policy is creating a more dangerous world. If Russia defeats Ukraine, aggressors everywhere will be emboldened. Furthermore, Trump’s calls for Ukraine to elect a new president endorses the notion that invaders, not voters, should choose governments.
Of course, no mention of Trump’s US would be complete without mention of immigration and the ongoing cruelty of ICE.
A new report from the Immigration Research Initiative estimates that Minnesota has 32,000 fewer jobs due to the negative ripple effects of ICE detentions. Municipal officials have calculated that the aggressive ICE actions have cost the area $700 million worth of economic activity.
Another piece of information that is equally fascinating and disturbing comes Inequality.org, who reported that, at El Tapatio, a restaurant in the small town of Willmar where four ICE agents had lunch last January. They returned after closing time to arrest the two owners and a dishwasher.
The concept of the US as an upholder of peace and democracy is one of the most enduring features of the post-WW2 world.
‘Trump’s pro-Russian foreign policy is creating a more dangerous world’
Today, much of the international community no longer view the US as a force for global stability. In a comprehensive multi-nation survey, a median of 63% of respondents across 36 non-US countries stated that the US does not contribute to global peace and stability.
In addition, there was a broad international consensus—averaging roughly 82% across surveyed nations— that the US frequently interferes in the internal affairs of other countries.
Trump fiddles whilst Washington burns, perhaps?
“When you are betrayed by a friend, it’s a really lonely place to be”
A somewhat hurried piece as I wanted to cover Trump’s latest betrayal of Ukraine.
Really, with allies such as the US who needs enemies?
To all intents and purposes the Trump administration should be a bust flush. Surely, all but the most diehard MAGA voters must see this, too?
Trump’s relatives and tech bros will follow him to the end, or, more accurately, to the bank. In democratic terms their number is minimal, unlike their current account balances. Money might not buy love, but they are determined to see if it can buy votes.
The UK is boringly quiet, so much so, that I find myself grateful for Farage and Reform.
The latest TX expose highlights the party’s problems with racism, and resulted in one of those memorable comedy moments, as Robert Jenrick, the party’s Treasury spokesperson attempted to defend the situation in an interview with BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “[Farage] is the most heavily scrutinised figure in British politics, and he’s someone who’s probably done more than almost anybody else to stand against racism and the far right, and to protect our politics from that over the course of my lifetime.”
Let’s hope Bob is better with numbers than character judgment!
Lyrically, we open with “The End” by The Doors, and play out with “How Do You Sleep” by LCD Soundsystem.
A good w/e to all
Philip
@coldwarsteve
Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.
Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s
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