The Empire Strikes Back: Thoughts About Saltydog Investor

I would like to thank those of you that reply and question the articles that I write. We would like to get into the habit of publishing your views, especially if they differ from my own, even if strongly held and expressed. That is how we learn.

Of course that will not include the ‘gentleman’s’ letter that suggested that I should adopt a position that would have been impossible to achieve, even in my youth when I was more flexible.

Here are a few of the replies that came through after the ‘thoughts’ article that I sent out at the beginning of the month.
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Hi Douglas

Therefore, rather than follow the Saltydog numbers alone, which will be in arrears for such a spike, there are things that could be bought to hedge positions, or take advantage of market swings. That is, until the Saltydog numbers catch up, and investments are adjusted accordingly, possibilities are to buy:

• GBP v USD currency ETF (either long or short, as appropriate)
• Gold ETF (in GBP terms or USD terms, as appropriate)

In this way, it may be possible to exploit the immediate market reaction, while not rushing to swap out core holdings. I am thinking days rather than even a week, although trends in the above can be monitored for immediate liquidation should market sentiment change.

The referendum impact was that the UK stock market bombed, particularly smaller companies; Sterling tanked; gold rose and as you stated, non-GBP denominated funds did well.

This effect was short lived for gold and UK smaller companies, and while Sterling drifted down further, once it plateaued, then the positive impact on non-GBP denominated funds was lost.

I think that the duration of any spike will be similar, although should the UK leave the EU and problems persist, that timeframe could extend. As we know, spikes do not favour momentum investing.

Mark

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Good Evening Douglas,

The Referendum was asking a very difficult question in a simple way. The Leave campaign won a narrow victory on misleading statements:

• such as the £350 million a week on the bus
• the talk of Turkey joining the EU
• it did not address the issue of Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement
• they stated we would not leave without a deal, which would be “the simplest trade deal in history” to obtain

Many people voted, not because they cared about the EU, but because they were feeling the effects of austerity, an issue that leaving the EU does not address.

It is correct that the EU’s share of world trade has fallen:

•  it is still a vast market, and buys value added products such as insurance, financial products, software that we produce well. 85% of our economy is made up of services and not “goods”.
•  The EU, at about 45% of our total exports is our largest customer, and as you know, you always look after your biggest customers.
• China, India, and other Asian Emerging Nations are vast markets; the EU is not stopping us from expanding our exports to these countries.

Most economists agree that staying in the EU is in our best interest financially. I think it is only Professor Minford who disagrees.

Yours sincerely,

Peter

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Hi Douglas

Being distinctly moderate and somewhere in the middle of things (albeit a hankering to the left), I have joined, left, joined and left the Labour Party. Sometimes I can’t remember whether I’m a member or not!

I voted LibDem once (don’t tell Labour!) only for them to get into bed with Tories. I think in the centre, muddling along, sits the vast majority of people in this country. We don’t recognise (or care for) these extremists and fanatics.

I’ll vote for anyone who won’t knock on my door in the middle of the night and haul me off for torture and detention just because I said something controversial down the pub.

With the impacts of climate change gathering speed and politicians in power doing so little to tackle it, I see better use of my time protesting rather than joining. Or to butcher another phrase, better to piss into the tent rather than piss out. I am going to Rebel…..

Your analysis of the EU is fine although fails to mention the absorption of all the poorer countries to the East. If you analysed only on the original countries, then would you find such a difference?

That would be interesting. Going further, perhaps you should just be comparing against France and Germany and perhaps the Nordics? Food for thought….

Angus

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Best wishes and good investing,

Douglas.

Founder & Chairman