Return to pre-war oil prices unlikely

Oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels in the short to medium term at least, a shift that could keep inflation elevated, delay interest-rate cuts, and reshape investment returns across global markets, predicts Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group.

Oil prices rose on Monday after Israel ordered troops to push deeper into Lebanon, renewing concerns that clashes with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group could threaten a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude traded around $93 a barrel before the latest escalation in the Middle East and has previously in this crisis surged above $112 as traders priced in the growing risk of supply disruptions.

Although prices have eased from peak levels, Nigel Green warns that markets are underestimating the lasting impact of geopolitical tensions on energy costs.

Around 20% of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the world’s most important energy arteries.

“Many investors are assuming oil could quickly fall back toward pre-war levels when tensions do ease,” says Nigel Green.

“But we believe that assumption is becoming increasingly difficult to justify. Energy markets are pricing a new reality in which supply security carries a significant premium.”

The implications stretch far beyond oil producers.

Global oil demand remains close to record highs at more than 103 million barrels per day, while spare production capacity remains limited relative to historical averages. A tighter supply-demand balance means relatively small disruptions can have an outsized impact on prices.

Higher oil prices also feed directly into inflation. Economists estimate that every sustained $10 increase in crude prices can add between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points to inflation in advanced economies.

Fuel costs affect transportation, manufacturing, logistics, food production and consumer goods, making oil one of the most influential inputs across the global economy.

“This raises the prospect for investors that central banks may be slower to cut interest rates than markets anticipate.

“Higher-for-longer borrowing costs would have implications for government bonds, growth stocks and other assets that benefit from lower rates,” notes the deVere CEO.

Energy equities are among the clearest beneficiaries of a prolonged period of elevated crude prices.

“History teaches us that energy stocks have outperformed broader equity markets during major oil rallies as higher commodity prices boost revenues, margins and cash generation.

“Commodity-exporting economies could also benefit. Countries with significant energy exports often experience stronger fiscal revenues, improved trade balances and support for local equity markets during periods of sustained oil strength.”

At the same time, several sectors face increasing pressure.

Fuel typically accounts for between 25% and 35% of airline operating costs, making the industry particularly vulnerable to higher crude prices.

Transportation companies, logistics operators and energy-intensive manufacturers also face margin compression as operating expenses rise.

Consumer-facing businesses could encounter additional headwinds if households devote a larger share of disposable income to fuel and utility bills, reducing spending elsewhere.

Emerging markets are likely to experience a growing divergence.

“Energy-exporting nations stand to benefit from higher revenues and stronger external balances, while oil-importing economies could face rising inflation, weaker currencies and slower economic growth.”

Currency markets are already reflecting some of these pressures.

“Historically, oil-producing economies, such as the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait, have seen their currencies supported during periods of elevated crude prices, while countries dependent on imported energy, including Japan, China, India and South Korea, often experience deterioration in their trade positions.”

Nigel Green argues that investors should view oil as one of the defining macroeconomic forces shaping markets over the coming years.

“Oil influences inflation, interest rates, currencies, corporate earnings and consumer spending simultaneously,” he explains.

“Investors who treat rising oil prices as a temporary headline risk may be underestimating the scale of the challenge.

“Energy has become a central driver of market performance, and portfolios should be positioned accordingly.”

He concludes: “We believe a return to pre-war oil prices appears increasingly unlikely in the foreseeable future.

“Adapting to that reality could become one of the most important portfolio decisions for investors for the next few years.”