Mr Brightside: “I Just Don’t Know What to do With Myself”

 

“Planning everything for two
Doing everything with you” 

 

As we start the new year, this column looks ahead to what be the immediate drivers, concerns, and policies of the Starmer government

 
It would seem that the poor guy just cannot catch a break, although, I cant help wonder if he, and his team, were really ready for the changes ahead.  

Within weeks of taking office, there was the shock, horror discovery of a £22bn shortfall in public finances. Given the amount of oversight on government finances with Treasury committees and the OBR, there is a good degree of visibility, meaning this shouldn’t have been a surprise. 

Added to that the Sunak/Hunt regime has been announcing immediate tax cuts funded by long-term cuts in spending as electoral bribes for at least 12-months prior to the  election. There was a collective concern that the numbers didn’t compute, and that the Tories were leaving a poison pill for a new Labour government. 
 

‘becoming pessimistic and mired in a sea of  doom, gloom, and the ill-judged removal of the winter fuel allowance’

 
Despite this, the shortfall, and the size of it, led to Labour becoming pessimistic and mired in a sea of  doom, gloom, and the ill-judged removal of the winter fuel allowance. Whilst unpopular, it might have not been so detrimental had the weather been kind. However, as I wite the temperature in London hovers around zero, with many areas of the country far worse. Television news this morning was full of well-meaning care workers advising the elderly to keep warm whatever the cost.        

The government has announced new targets to lower NHS waiting lists which grew exponentially under 15-yrs of Tory misgovernment, – yawn!!! However, recent reports suggest that the hospitals themselves are in urgent need of care, with a number in such a dilapidated state they risk fires, floods and electrical faults, internal NHS trust documents reveal, with leaders saying conditions have become “outright dangerous”. 

Matthew Taylor, pinned the blame on “decades of underinvestment” in the health service’s capital budget – used to repair and replace buildings and equipment – which meant the NHS received “woefully” less funding than comparable countries. 

One of the many examples is Croydon hospital which, among other problems, faces the “risk of malfunction or loss of critical medical equipment due to failure of electrical sockets” in eight of its operating theatres, critical care unit, high dependency unit, special care baby unit and X-ray department because of their “environmental condition”. 

The cost of repairing crumbling NHS facilities in England has soared to £13.8bn, with £2.7bn of the works needed classed as posing a “high risk” to safety, the latest NHS figures show. That is more than the service received every year in capital funding. 

The NHS will need an extra £6.4bn a year each year between 2025 and 2028 in order to keep its estate in good working order and improve productivity by the expected 2%, Taylor added. 

PM Starmer’s overall problem is simple, it’s time, something this column explored in “Tick, Tock, Tick, Tock”, back in August. He doesn’t have the luxury of time, today everything is more instant. The early years of Thatcher’s premiership were mired with problems, not least inner-city riots and 3m unemployed. It took victory in the Falklands war, three years into her premiership before she felt safe. 

As with Thatcher, Labour seem to be looking to the City and the financial services sector to drive the economy. 

In her November Mansion House speech, chancellor Reeves suggested that post-crisis regulations have “gone too far”. In response a number of economists have recently warned her that liberalising financial sector regulations could undermine the government’s efforts to grow the economy, posing “particular risks to the government’s wider industrial strategy”. 

Historically, there is little to support the chancellor’s argument that expanding the sector will increase and broaden economic prosperity. The financial sector accounts for 9% of GDP, and is the second-largest exporter of financial services in the G7. Rather than addressing the UK’s stagnant productivity or its chronic underinvestment, the sector’s rise has come at the expense of the “real economy” by siphoning off resources and talent. 

In employment term, with only C.1-million people employed in financial services, it is not a significant provider of jobs, especially in the squeezed bottom and middle job sectors where pay and social mobility are stagnant. Therefore, it would make more sense promoting labour-intensive industries that have long been neglected. 
 

‘it is not a significant provider of jobs, especially in the squeezed bottom and middle job sectors’ (quite!….Ed)

 
Deregulation will see banks chasing greater profitability, taking more risk, endangering the wider economy, and bringing about GFC II. Instead, banks should look to the past when they were a tool for economic development, making direct productive investment into businesses. The thinktank Positive Money found that in 1960 the assets of UK banks were equivalent to 32% of GDP; by 2022 this figure had jumped to 563%. It highlighted international evidence that “too much finance is robustly found to harm growth”. 

The financialisation of the UK economy has contributed to inequality and instability, E.G., the housing bubble means average-priced English homes are affordable only to the richest 10%.  

The PM appears to think that was the case with the early day of his leadership, he can play the long game, and that people will forget todays tough medicine, allowing him another majority in 2028 or 2029. This is a dangerous misunderstanding, out-of-touch with today’s short termism,  

He appears to lack a clear direction or purpose, other than the somewhat flaky promise of “change”. Instead of clarity we have, in his own words, “seven key pillars, six milestones” and “five missions”.   

This year will be key to the success or failure of his premiership. There will be more bad economic news, difficult May elections, strikes in public services, a fraught spending review, and further turbulence from sceptics in the party. Not forgetting the shock waves of a Trump presidency and an ascendant Reform targeting the May elections with glee. 
 

‘The financialisation of the UK economy has contributed to inequality and instability’

 
Globally, last year elections saw incumbent governments punished for inflation, falling living standards, and crashing state services. Populism is on the march, selling fear, and the urgent need to slash spending, cut taxes and ease rates to restore growth, while blaming immigration. 

Reform and Farage are constantly in the news, as is his former buddy, Elon Musk, who continues to use his “X” platform to spread malicious gossip, like a latter day Joseph Goebbels. Like Goebbels, Musk clearly understands the value of propaganda, and Goebbels summed this up, saying: “The essence of propaganda consists in winning people over to an idea so sincerely, so vitally, that in the end they succumb to it utterly and can never escape from it”. 

Musk spent his Christmas break interfering, annoying, and being genuinely dangerous in his comments on German and UK politics. 

Musk had previously called chancellor Scholz a “fool”, reiterating the criticism after 5-people were killed and more than 200 injured in a Christmas market attack allegedly carried out by a Saudi-born assailant with far-right sympathies. 

Following that Musk offered his view on the outcome of Germany’s election, to be held on 23 February: “Chancellor Oaf Schitz or whatever his name is will lose”. Musk is endorsing the hard-right AfD, saying “Only the AfD can save Germany”.  

Scholz, with somewhat more dignity than Musk, responded, saying: “I don’t believe in courting Mr Musk’s favour. I’m happy to leave that to others,” he said. “The rule is: don’t feed the troll.”  

In recent days Musk has waded into UK politics, calling on King Charles to step in and dissolve parliament as he criticised the government over child grooming cases, related to abuse by organised groups after multiple convictions of sexual offences against children between 2010 and 2014. He also said he believes Nigel Farage should be replaced as Reform leader amid reports he could donate $100m (£80m) to the party. 
 

‘Populism is on the march, selling fear, and the urgent need to slash spending, cut taxes and ease rates to restore growth, while blaming immigration’

 
Musk also spoke out in support of Tommy Robinson who is serving an 18-month custodial sentence for contempt of court for repeating false allegations against a Syrian refugee, in breach of an injunction. Musk commented: “Why are rapists given suspended sentences in the UK, but this guy gets 18 months in solitary confinement, despite doing nothing violent?” A torrent of similarly framed tweets followed. 

As readers will know, Farage isn’t my favourite, however he is a savvy enough politician to realise that championing someone like Tommy Robinson is a step too far: “Well, this is a surprise! Elon is a remarkable individual but on this I am afraid I disagree. My view remains that Tommy Robinson is not right for Reform and I never sell out my principles.” 

There was a torrent of other abusive tweets regarding so-called grooming gangs, which included calling Jess Phillips, the safeguarding minister, was a “rape genocide apologist”. 

Farage, defended this, saying: “That’s what free speech is. You should be allowed, I should be allowed, to say things that others find offensive.” 

The Conservatives, especially the obsequious Chris Philp,  have also refused to condemn Musk for his comments, perhaps hoping to usurp Reform as Musk’s vehicle of choice?   

The best response to Musk’s vile insinuation came from the campaign group Killed Women, the women said: “We write as victims of extreme male violence. What connects us all beyond our shared trauma is the support and kindness we have received from Jess Phillips over many years, personally and as activists fighting for change. 

“We know there are those who would weaponise our pain for their own ends or political gain; who speak out with new-found interest, not to tackle the horrendous crimes that stole so much from us, but to further their own agenda. They should hang their heads in shame.” 

Interestingly, the key differentiator between Musk and other populists is immigration, a point highlighted in “This is Not a Love Song”. Musk clearly believes that talent/ability is everything: “It comes down to this: do you want America to WIN or do you want America to LOSE. If you force the world’s best talent to play for the other side, America will LOSE. End of story.” 

His interpretation of the white supremacists “racehorse theory”, the belief that he is personally superior and rooted in “good genes”,  appears to be more pragmatic viewing immigration policy as a way of shielding from the “bad genes” of outsiders, based not so much on race as intelligence. 
 

‘There is nothing new in this other than the science underlying it. This is just another exercise in “the survival of the fittest”’

 
This is genetic determinism: the idea that who you are, and what you can achieve, is all down to your DNA. This means that exclusionary policies can appear to be rational decisions based on science. As a result, if genes are everything, why bother with tackling inequality? Such a policy would waste time and resources addressing social problems that are defined by our genetic code? 

There is nothing new in this other than the science underlying it. This is just another exercise in “the survival of the fittest”. Unfortunately, “fittest” is often used to justify best, or strongest. 

The theories of genetics and racial superiority found a willing audience in Nazi Germany, who viewed Aryanism as an expression of German racial supremacy entitled to rule the rest of humanity.  

This was in large part based on ideas promoted by racial theorists such as Arthur de Gobineau (a French aristocrat who is best known for helping introduce scientific race theory and “racial demography”, and for developing the theory of the Aryan master race and Nordicism), and Houston Stewart Chamberlain (a British philosopher who wrote works about political philosophy and natural science). 
 

‘The growing influence of online platforms allows anyone to have a view and express it under the guise of free speech no matter how abhorrent it might be’

 
It must be of concern that such extremism is being promoted by two of the world’s most powerful figures. The growing influence of online platforms allows anyone to have a view and express it under the guise of free speech no matter how abhorrent it might be  

An example of this is 39-year-old neo-Nazi, Andrew McIntyre who this week was imprisoned for inciting racist violence. McIntyre used the Southport murders to exploited grief and fear to incite racist violence, using Telegram to run the Southport Wake Up channel. He encouraged mobs to attack mosques. These groups went on to violently clash with police, and torch a library. Over 50 officers were injured, and communities across the UK were left terrified. 

He also circulated a “hit list” of 39 targets nationwide, prompting school closures, early business shutdowns, and panic in towns.  

As I have said before always written, with racism it isn’t where it starts, it’s where it ends. 
 

“We will teach our twisted speech
To the young believers
We will train our blue-eyed men
To be young believers” 

 
 

‘Whew, what a first week back!

Poor old PM Starmer, as hard as he tries to move forward with policies and initiatives, he is just subsumed by hard-right invective.

Elon Musk, the world’s richest and most dangerous person, is now lobbing hate bombs Labour’s way.

All of it is unwelcome and fundamentally untrue, but when has that ever got in the way of a good story. It’s the old adage: tell a lie, tell the biggest one you can, as often as you can, and it becomes the truth.

Not only do we have Musk using “X” to further whatever his end goal might be, like a real life Blofeld, but we have the Tories media gleefully lapping it up and spreading controversy.

This seems to be the limit of the far-right, simple destruction. Criticism at every twist and turn, with no solutions in-sight, and, in the case of the Tories, 15-yrs of failure.

As an example, we have Robert Jenrick for the Tories, demanding a new inquiry, and seemingly forgetting that when he was in the Home Office he failed to act on the outcome of an inquiry into grooming gangs. Furthermore, he has rarely mentioned the issue in the House of Commons before this.

The LibDem deputy leader, Daisy Cooper, said: “Robert Jenrick’s attempt to exploit this appalling scandal for his own political gain is completely shameless. He didn’t lift a finger to help the victims when a minister, now he’s jumping on the bandwagon and acting like a pound shop Farage.”

As to the calls for a new inquiry, Prof Alexis Jay, who led the original one said there had already been a delay of more than two years in implementing her independent inquiry into child sexual abuse report and that “the time has passed for more inquiries”

“We have learned quite a lot from those reviews that have already been undertaken. But locally, people need to step up to the mark and do the sorts of things that have been recommended. “I think there are something like 400 recommendations that we identified … in all the reviews that had already been carried out, and many of those were simply not met.”

Farage now faces a tough choice with respect to how he deals with Musk. He criticised Musk’s championing of Tommy Robinson, and was met with the response that he wasn’t up to being leader

Time to ditch Elon? Maybe, but don’t be surprised if the Tories then try and buddy up with him, even though, alongside Labour, he regards them as yesterday’s failures.

Meanwhile, Elon will carry-on with his the best rise to the top, and the rest can just get on with it. Sounds terribly familiar doesn’t it!!!

Back in the real world nothing works, we are all cold, and getting poorer. That sounds familiar, too

Lyrically, we start with the great Bacharach and David song, “I Just Don’t Know What to Do With Myself”, brilliantly covered by the White Stripes. We end with the Clash and Clampdown”.

Enjoy!

Philip.’

 
@coldwarsteve
 

 
And maybe just a little New Year self-indulgence

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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