Markets on edge as war narrative resets and earnings loom

Markets are once again being pulled between competing forces, with geopolitical escalation in the Middle East reintroducing uncertainty just as investors turn their focus toward the start of earnings season.

After a brief period of relief following ceasefire hopes, the breakdown in talks and the emergence of a “blockade of the blockade” strategy by the US has pushed the narrative back toward duration risk:  how long this conflict will last and how deeply it will impact the global economy.

The latest price action reflects that tension. Oil initially spiked on renewed supply fears but has since struggled to build on gains, trading in a relatively tight range despite the escalation in rhetoric. This lack of follow-through suggests markets are still grappling with how to price the situation, caught between the risk of further disruption to global energy flows and the possibility of another last-minute de-escalation. Under the surface, however, the physical market appears far tighter than futures imply, pointing to a disconnect that could eventually resolve with higher prices if disruption persists.

Brent crude daily chart

_{Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.}

Equities, meanwhile, have shown surprising resilience. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have rebounded from recent lows and are attempting to stabilise, even as the macro backdrop deteriorates. Part of this strength can be attributed to easing volatility in bond markets and greater clarity around the Federal Reserve’s reaction function, namely, a willingness to look through supply-driven inflation shocks rather than aggressively tighten policy. That has helped compress risk premia and support valuations in the short term.

However, this resilience is increasingly being tested by the reality of what lies ahead. The upcoming earnings season is likely to be a critical inflection point. Expectations remain high, with analysts still projecting double-digit earnings growth in the near term and even stronger growth in the second quarter. This sets a high bar at a time when input costs, particularly energy, have risen sharply and growth momentum was already slowing prior to the conflict. If companies begin to signal margin pressure or revise guidance lower, the current optimism in equities could quickly unwind.