I’m So Bored With the USA: “You Don’t Know What You’re Doing” 

 

“Sayin’ ball of confusion
That’s what the world is today, hey, hey”

 

 

Sanctions on, sanctions, off, sanctions back-on… 

Tariffs on, tariffs off, tariffs back-on, tariffs on-hold. 

What a shambles! Trump et al don’t have a clue

 

Last month in, “Who’s Afraid of the Big, Bad Wolf”, I wrote of how the shambles resembles “the fall of the Roman empire”, and that “They (USA) might never be truly insignificant, but the time as being #1 is coming to an end.” 

Following that, in “The Emperor’s New Clothes”, I wrote: “Europe doesn’t need to fight the US, it doesn’t need to fall-out with it specifically, it just needs to be independent of them”. 

Since then, all that has happened has only endorsed my thoughts. 

Russia, despite Trump’s insistence that they want peace, are pursuing the war in Ukraine with a  new-found enthusiasm, carrying out ballistic missile and drone strikes across Ukraine, buoyed by Trump withdrawing intelligence support and stopping arms shipments. I suspect peace depends on how you define it, certainly Russia’s naked aggression looks like it will be rewarded. 

In response to the new attacks, Trump posted: “Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED.” 

Trump’s vague threat was in contrast to the punitive steps he has already taken against Ukraine. 

 

‘Russia’s naked aggression looks like it will be rewarded’

 

Another flip-flop has been tariffs. After declaring there was no “no room left” for a deal with Canada and Mexico, Trump pulled back, initially announcing a month-long reprieve for carmakers, followed by a suspension of almost all tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico.  

Trump and his aides are now trailing a fresh wave of tariffs in early April as “the big one”, with myriad markets – including the EU – and industries in their sights. 

This is simply too erratic to even be described as economic policy. Trump and his horde still insist they are  paving the way for a greater, more prosperous future, but businesses are struggling to make out the economic landscape now, let alone what might happen next. 

Sameera Fazili, former deputy director of the national economic council (NEC) under Joe Biden said: “When you have such a high level of uncertainty, and have a set of policies that seem to impact every part of the economy … it leads to businesses essentially being frozen. They’re not able to make investments. They’re not able to make plans. They’re not able to make hiring decisions. 

“Because they don’t know where these policies are going to head. These policies are going to have such an impact on their bottom line.” 

Trump sums up all that is wrong with populists, convincing in opposition and unconvincing in government. His rhetoric gave the impression that tariffs would revitalize America’s industrial heartlands, and fill up the federal government’s coffers with trillions of dollars from other countries, with only a minor impact on US consumers. 

Only last week, Trump told reporters: “The countries and companies that have been ripping us aren’t particularly happy with what I’m doing. Sure, tariffs might bring about “a little short-term interruption, but “I don’t think it’s going to be big”. 

 

‘Trump sums up all that is wrong with populists, convincing in opposition and unconvincing in government’

 

It isn’t that simple; Tariffs are generally paid by importers, E.G., US companies buying goods from overseas, and will be passed-on to their customers. 

Trump views the threat of tariffs as a way to encourage overseas firms to relocate their factories to the US. But, substantial, long-term investments become exponentially more problematic if business cannot predict what government policy will be. 

This mix of brinkmanship and stop-start policies is leading many economists to predict the US economy  entering recession this year. Equity markets have reacted by selling-off, yesterday (10-03) the S&P 500 was down 2.4%, in Europe the FTSE 100 tumbled 0.9%, the fell 1.7% and France’s CAC 0.9%. 

Goldman Sach analysts say the chances of a US recession had increased from 15% to 20%. They have revised forecasts to incorporate higher tariffs and inflation, alongside a hit to GDP and employment. Morgan Stanley cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.5%.  

The US economy reported an unexpected fall in consumer spending in January and a widening of the trade deficit to a record $131bn (£101bn), as firms rushed to move goods before the introduction of tariffs, and the biggest fall in consumer confidence in 4-years in February. 

In “We are getting the band together” I reported on how Trump was falsely blaming the previous Biden administration. Firstly, this was false, secondly as Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said: Presidents typically “move on quickly, or don’t criticize their predecessors by name. Here’s another norm that Trump has exploded. Trump has no limits and his base lets him get away with anything. So expect it to continue.” 

During his presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly pledged to “rapidly” bring down prices from “day one. A vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper”. However, should his policies led to prices rise, Trump will find it harder to keep blaming the former Biden administration.  

As a result, we are already seeing Trump backtracking, acknowledging how difficult it would be to reduce prices: “It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up.” 

Whilst talk is cheap in opposition, as Fazili said: “Once you’re in charge, you’re in charge. And if there’s a problem in the economy, people look to you to fix it.” 

Despite this, there are some, such as Boris Johnson, who are still seduced by Trump. This is hardly surprising as they are much alike; feckless, unfamiliar with the truth, misogynistic and deluded. 

 

‘feckless, unfamiliar with the truth, misogynistic and deluded’

 

When Trump looked likely to win the US election, Johnson, in his Daily Mail column, likened the reaction of the “western liberal intelligentsia” to “the shriek of elderly beldames leaping on the piano stool after spying a mouse in their petticoats”. 

The Daily Mail has a chequered past; In 1930, Lord Rothermere, the proprietor, wrote about Hitler: “I have always found him, personally, a model of old-fashioned courtesy and good manners….a perfect gentleman”, who “brings to Europe the blessed prospect of peace”. 

More recently, another Daily Mail writer, the implausibly absurd Nadine Dorries wrote of Trump. “I honestly believe that Trump can bring about world peace and prosperity.”  

And, there are many other Trump apologists in the UK. 

Suella Braverman said that he provides “a glimmer of hope of what is possible in the west”, and considers his latest actions above all “a wake-up call for European nations”. 

Whilst Liz Truss thanked him “saving western civilisation”.  

Former Tory MP, Jacob Rees-Mogg, said Trump’s victory was “a success for democracy” and also, notwithstanding his thing for Putin, for “free speech”. Undaunted by Trumps championing Russia over Ukraine couldn’t diminish Jacob’s lust, saying “Reinvigorating democracy is also positive”.  Jacob even found  something “creative” in Trump’s denial of military assistance to Ukraine, “the world may ultimately be a safer place”. 

Now all of these apologists have one thing in-common; they are all refugees from that bygone era of Brexit.  

The chief architect of that disaster was our own poundshop Trump, Nigel Farage, who only weeks ago was riding high in the polls, telling anyone who would listen how he was Trump’s best mate. 

 

‘chief architect of that disaster was our own poundshop Trump’

 

His party, Reform, is now the scene of an unseemly row between him and fellow MP, Rupert Lowe. The latter, whatever the rights and wrongs of his situation might be, appears to in the dark as to how Reform is Farage. Take him away and it’s nothing, not even amusing. 

Gawain (really!!??) Towler, a former director of communications for Reform, said: “Nigel has been called many things, but without him in the election we wouldn’t have got any seats. I don’t think [Lowe] realised quite how hard it is to lead a political party. It’s really hard to build a party from scratch”. Lowe had seats in the European parliament and Westminster on Farage’s “coat-tails”. 

A localised dispute aside, the real problem for Farage is his relationship with Trump. Does he now keep him at arm’s length or risk alienating the British electorate. 

A recent poll by YouGov fund that 80%of Britons have an unfavourable view of Trump, up from 73% two weeks ago, with only 15% of Britons having a positive view of the president. 

This is the case with Reform voters, too, The proportion with a negative view of Trump has risen 25-points to 53% since mid-February, while the number with a favourable view has fallen from 66% to 45%. 

This is also an issue for Europe’s populists, with parties split over how far to distance themselves from Trump and his attitude towards Ukraine, as they fear supporting him will damage their domestic support.  

Populist parties in western Europe and some Nordic countries are the most concerned, whereas their eastern European counterparts, where parts of the electorate view Russia sympathetically, still support Trump. 

Taking a cautious approach is finding favour with electorates; E.G., Mette Frederiksen, the Danish Social Democrat prime minister, who has clashed with Trump by defending Greenland’s sovereignty and backing arms for Ukraine, is enjoying her highest poll rating in a year. 

Whilst Frederiksen’s condemnation of Trump isn’t a surprise, she has been joined by the more pro-Trump, Inger Støjberg, the leader of the right-wing Denmark Democrats, who responded to Trump’s bullying of Zelenskyy, writing: “Shocking and grotesque scenes from the White House in the USA. This is not the USA I know and love! Now we must support and back Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.” 

In France, Marine Le Pen, the president of the far-right National Rally (“RN”), seems unsure which way to turn. She criticised Trump’s withdrawal of military aid as “reprehensible and cruel”, but hedged her bets  attacking the French president, Emmanuel Macron, saying she would “never support an unrealistic European defence” nor “the dispatch of French combat troops on Ukrainian soil”. 

Other RN figures, such as the MEP Thierry Mariani, have questioned whether France faces a Russian security threat: “Who can seriously believe that Russian tanks will arrive tomorrow in Berlin or Paris when they are not even able to take Kramatorsk or Sloviansk?” 

President Macron, sensing the right’s vulnerability, is pitching his support for Ukraine in largely patriotic terms, speaking of defending the homeland, rather than as an expression of European values. 
 

‘For all European populists there is a simple reality; Trump and his USA are an unreliable ally’

 

In Italy, PM Giorgia Meloni, a supporter of Ukraine is also the European leader with some of the closest ties to Trump. Adding to her problems is the presence inside her governing coalition of the pro-Trump Matteo Salvini, an opponent of the “warmongering EU”. 

Meloni currently backs extra European military spending, but opposes the use of the EU’s cohesion funds for that purpose, and sending European peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. 

For all European populists there is a simple reality; Trump and his USA are an unreliable ally. Their electorates are increasingly anti-Trump, and there is a growing realisation that the president will drop them without a second thought if it suits him. 

Trump is clearly being found out. He is little more than a pub-politician, ranting, raving, and victimising, with the added nuance of nationalism. In opposition, this is seductive, but when put into practise in government it doesn’t work. 

In the US, the only beneficiaries will be the uber rich, especially the tech barons. But, even that might be short-lived. When the political pendulum swings back to the Democrats, which it inevitably will, don’t be surprised to see a raft of anti-trust legislation. 

Elsewhere, it too early to predict the end of populism and its exponents. Trump has revealed its failings, and western Europe’s long established democracies will likely see populists support peak in the mid-20s. In eastern Europe, where true democracy is younger, there still seems to be a yearning for strong leaders, hence the attraction of Putin’s Russia. 

In the UK, Trump is the best thing that could have happened for PM Starmer, he doesn’t need to fight Trump, he doesn’t need to fall-out with him, he just needs to be independent.  

 

 

“It’s my life, don’t you forget
It’s my life, it never ends”

 

‘Perhaps the end game will start sooner than expected.

Trump, perhaps to his credit, has implemented, or tried to implement the policies he promised. However, all this is achieving is showing that they don’t work.

Domestically, immigration aside, the big thing was tariffs. They were going to revitalise the economy to the benefit of everyone, perhaps because he expected other countries to back down. They haven’t, especially in the case of China and Canada. Both are hitting back, and seeking other markets for their exports.

The “Trump bump” is now the “Trump Dump”. Chaos and uncertainty abounds, markets are down as is the dollar, and the talk is of recession.

On foreign policy, his championing of Russia and vilifying Ukraine has backfired spectacularly. European leaders have rallied around Ukraine, and, realising that the US is, at best, an unreliable ally, are preparing to stand together and be counted. Within this is the UK, who, as a result of Trump’s actions is beginning the road to reintegrating with Europe.

As Trump becomes more exposed as a fraud, so do his acolytes. Populism won’t go away, but it may have reached its peak.

King Donald faces a long, and potentially lonely 4-yrs in office. The only outstanding question is, where does he turn to reinvigorate his presidency? Somehow, I fear for immigrants in the US.

Lyrically, we start with “Ball of Confusion” by The Temptations, and end with “It’s My Life” by Talk Talk.

Enjoy!

Philip’.

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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