I’m So Bored With the USA: Tumblin’ Dice

 

 

“Always in a hurry, I never stop to worry Don’t you see the time flashin’ by”

 

 

Editorial:

 

The follow article bemoans the general poor standard of politicians today.

The rise of populism has seen a proliferation of chancers, united in negativity, divisiveness, racism, sexism, and a general sense of antipathy to anyone who doesn’t agree with them.

So far as I can see is to use their country’s democratic system to subvert it, and become authoritarian, totalitarian leaders.

Democracy is a gift to the people, a chance to have a voice, a say in their own destiny. Within this is freedom of speech, which is abused on an ongoing basis by hard-right politician. Whilst, the recent racist remarks by Tory MP, Katie Lam and Reform MP Sarah Pochin highlight this, what is worse is the total lack of meaningful criticism from either party leader. The best we got was Farage calling her comments “ugly”.

The reason for that is simple; large portions of the electorate have been brainwashed into agreeing with them!

Conditioning the electorate is all part of populism. The following quite sums-up the situation:

“Populism offers simple answers to complex problems, but time and again it has been shown ultimately to offer no answer at all. Instead, it trades in deflections. This is why you will find it fixating on utter irrelevances like telly advertising when a number of interlinked crises threaten to explode entire political orders or financial markets.”

 

“Populism offers simple answers to complex problems, but time and again it has been shown ultimately to offer no answer at all”

 

In the last few days the storm in a tea cup, that is issue with chancellor Reeves not having a £900 rental licence are proof. This has been met with a hysterical overreaction from both right-wing politicians and their media, calling for enquires and her dismissal.

This is not serious politics this is politicking, just causing trouble for troubles sake. In the overall scheme of thing, the chancellor’s omission is trivial, but the reaction encapsulates everything about populism.

This highlights what I wrote about in “Morals are “so last year, darling!”, we have become a very nasty country, fuelled by deeply unpleasant right-wing politicians and a media which manages to be ever more spiteful.

I find very little to like in my country anymore…..

Lyrically, we start with the Stones and “Tumblin’ Dice”, and end with Public Enemy and “Fight the Power”

_____________________________________________________

 

 

Today’s politicians lack gravitas; the ability to act with dignity, and importance whilst showing both restraint and moral rigor. With this comes a sense of responsibility and commitment to the task.

 

Today, this is all too often replaced with divisiveness, victimisation, and simple nastiness. Too many appear self-serving, looking to see what their next opportunity might be.

John Major is the one the few politicians, albeit a former one, who carries an aura of gravitas.

This week he told the Conservatives that any alliance with Reform would “for ever destroy” the party, which he said had already left traditional supporters “politically homeless” by lurching too far to the right.

Dismissing a pact with Reform as “beyond stupid”, Major said that any Tories tempted to defect should go now because his own party would be better off without them.

The Tories have struggled with the existential threat posed by Nigel Farage and whatever party he leads since 2014. Major warned that autocracies were advancing in many countries, meaning that more than the future of the party was at stake: “Frustration with democracy should not blind us to the toxic nature of nationalism, or any and every form of populist or authoritarian government.”

In his speech, he urged the party not to reject the centre ground of British politics, saying they were “seriously alienating” voters by coming down on the wrong side of public opinion on Europe, climate change and overseas aid.

 

‘“seriously alienating” voters by coming down on the wrong side of public opinion on Europe, climate change and overseas aid’

 

Intentional or not, he criticised the current position of the party’s current leader Kemi Badenoch, who supported Brexit, is committed to scrapping the UK’s net zero by 2050 target and cutting the overseas aid budget by another £7bn. Alongside this Tory moderates are fearful of the direction the party is taking under the influence of right-wingers such as Robert Jenrick. One-nation Conservatism appears consigned to history.

Major summed-up what this column has written since outset, the Tories must “change or cease to be relevant.”

What was very revealing was his acknowledgment that “we, as a party, are ourselves in part to blame” after a tumultuous few years in power for “anxious people … turning to populist politicians”.

As this column wrote in Morals are “so last year, darling!”, Major highlighted the contradictions inherent within Reform’s attempt to be “all things to all people”, and making promises that could never be kept, saying: “This is amateur populism let loose. Such foolish promises illustrate their unsuitability for power.”

This was an endorsement of much of what this column has consistently said.

Unfortunately, being right over things doesn’t always provide pleasure. However, I will admit to a smug satisfaction. That aside, Reform and Farage have spooked both Tories and Labour, reducing them to an incoherent, directionless mess, incapable of independent thought, and effectively ushering Farage into Number 10.

this column has written since outset, the Tories must “change or cease to be relevant”

 

A panicked Labour is chasing growth at all costs, seemingly blind to the fact that growth alone won’t help the majority as they struggle with an ever worsening cost-of-living. As the Democrats found out to their cost, data is meaningless when, every month, the reach of your pay check is reduced.

Nevertheless. growth is the word. Perhaps in desperation, chancellor Reeves headed-off to the Gulf to continue our efforts to secure a trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the UAE. The government hopes a deal with the GCC could add £1.6bn to the UK economy each year and contribute a further £600m to UK workers’ annual wages in the long term.

 

Reeves, seemingly desperate to prove my point, said: “Our number one priority is growth, so I am taking Britain’s offer – of stability, regulatory agility and world-class expertise – directly to one of the world’s most important trade and investment hubs, making that case in our national interest.”

There is, however, likely to be significant criticism of such deals from campaigners who have previously said the UK should not secure an agreement without legal commitments on areas such as human rights improvements.

The TUC is among those who have urged caution over the deal and raised concerns with ministers, saying: “Our view on trade deals is consistent: the government should not agree deals with countries that abuse human rights and workers’ rights, and violate international law.”

Whatever the rights and wrong of the situation, trade with the Gulf is strategically important, worth C.£59bn p.a., our seventh-largest export market. The deal with the GCC is expected to increase trade by about 16%. Sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have been some of the biggest foreign investors in the UK, with the Saudi Public Investment Fund buying a 15% stake in Heathrow airport last year.

If you’re going to sell your soul to the devil you might as well go all in, which brings me to the gaming industry.

 

‘If you’re going to sell your soul to the devil you might as well go all in, which brings me to the gaming industry’

 

Quite remarkably, Grainne Hurst, the chief executive of the Betting and Gaming Council, kept a poker face as she told Treasury select committee there is no “social ill with gambling”, and that higher taxes would result in thousands of job losses and push punters into using hidden market services.

Hust then added that the industry does “everything that it possibly can in order to mitigate any harms that may be caused by our products”.

Earlier, the committee heard evidence from a panel of experts who all argued that taxes should be increased on the riskiest gambling products, while maintaining lower taxes on more benign forms of betting such as horse racing and playing bingo.

Stewart Kenny, a founder of the bookmaker Paddy Power, now retired, admitted regretting “some of the things I did” while working in the sector but that he had resigned from the group’s board in 2016 after 29 years because he did not believe the company was protecting problem gamblers enough.

“When you open an account to have a bet on the next general election or Manchester United to win the Premiership … within 24 hours [bookmakers] send you free spins in the casino, to the online slots,” he told the committee. “It is rather like going into a bar for your first drink and having a shandy and the barman … says: ‘Why not have a triple strength brandy on the house?’

Staying with gambling we turn to the US and Trump’s big play with China, which we covered in “Chinese Takeaway.”

The result of the meeting between Trump/Xi in Korea was in-line with expectations, perhaps due to the fact that the apparent agreement was largely as pre-negotiated by Trump’s adult-in-the-room, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Cooperation replaced a trade war rhetoric, although a 1-year truce is more akin to a cease fire is. Tariffs were cut to 10%, China will reverse rare-earth export controls and the US will reciprocate allowing the export of advanced chips, American farmers will be saved as China resumes buying their soya beans.

The body language of the two leaders was telling. Trump was all bonhomie, full of compliments, which Xi barely acknowledged; tolerated might be the best description. Xi’s actions and words emphasised this was a meeting of equals.

 

‘Trump was all bonhomie, full of compliments, which Xi barely acknowledged; tolerated might be the best description’

 

Trump has made tariffs the cornerstone of his economic policy; tariffs will pay down the national debt, fund his “big, beautiful” tax cuts for the rich, and generate inward investments from countries as part of their trade deals with the US.

It all sounds so simple, the answer to all America’s problems solved at the stroke of a pen, albeit a somewhat oversized retard one.

But, when you analyse it he isn’t so clever.

Because of complex supply chains tariffs can impact virtually all imports, which, in-turn means prices increase, otherwise known as inflation, which impacts most on those with the least.

Typically, central banks combat inflation by raising interest rates; again, rising interest rates impact most on those with the least, and actually benefit the few with the most.

Inward investment, even if it’s included in a trade deal isn’t guaranteed. The EU might agree $Xbn of investment but it cannot force Mercedes, BMW, et al to comply. Indeed, with all the uncertainty Trump generates they are highly likely to do anything but…

Even cutting US debt is debatable, as IMF forecasts show that Trump is expected to push US debt levels above those of Italy and Greece by the end of the decade as a result of unfunded tax cuts and increased defence spending.

The IMF predicts US debt will rise from 125% to 143% of annual income by 2030, while Italy’s will flatline at about 137%.

Greece is on track to cut the ratio of debt to gross domestic product (GDP) from 146% to 130% over the same period.

Amid tax cuts for high earners, the US is expected to run annual budget deficits of more than 7% over the next five years, while Italy is due to cut its spending shortfall this year to 2.9%, allowing it to meet a 3% limit set by Brussels a year early.

Trump increased US government spending and reduced taxes primarily for middle and high income groups in his “big, beautiful bill”, reversing the efforts of the previous Biden administration to limit the size of the US deficit. He has also pledged to build a “golden dome” defence shield, which could cost almost $1tn.

Spending increases could push the budget deficit higher by $7tn a year by the time Trump is due to leave office in January 2029.

In truth, this is classic populism in-action; purporting to offer simple answers to complex problems, but, as history shows, they ultimately have no answers. Instead, it’s proponents trades in deflection, fixating on utter irrelevances when a number of interlinked crises threaten to explode entire political orders or financial markets.

Populists don’t have the answers, they simply don’t have a clue what to say or do.

 

‘I have long harboured the belief that Trump desire to turn America into a totalitarian state is the elephant in the room’

 

However, answers aren’t required if you can suspend democracy.

As readers will be aware I have long harboured the belief that Trump desire to turn America into a totalitarian state is the elephant in the room.

He has a majority in the supreme court, giving him effective control of the judiciary.

He has deployed the National Guard in a number of major cities, all of which are Democrat controlled. Whilst, he not yet invoked the Insurrection Act, which would enable him to mobilise the army, he called all senior military commanders to a meeting where they were told their fight was with the “enemy within”.

Republicans have also launched new gerrymandering offensives, and demanded the denaturalisation and deportation of socialist New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, as Trump threatens to defund the city

He is also quietly taking control of the media, via his tech bros.

 

‘As citizens of Germany found in the 1930s, democracy is” herr” today and gone tomorrow!’

 

Billionaire Larry Ellison, the Oracle co-founder, and his filmmaker son, David, have become blunt instruments in this process. Trump boasts they are “friends of mine – they’re big supporters of mine”.

In August, David Ellison’s Skydance Media acquired Paramount Global with financing from his father. Beyond a vast slice of Hollywood, this acquisition brought control of CBS News – one of the US’s “big three” networks.

Now, Trump officials are briefing that they are also in favour of Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery, the parent company of HBO and CNN. A senior Trump official, said: “Who owns Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is very important to the administration.”

Larry Ellison, also leads a group of investors set to take over TikTok’s US operations, with other partners reportedly including Rupert Murdoch and Abu Dhabi’s government-owned investment company.

Trump isn’t just controlling who owns what, he is also censoring content.

The Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which Trump regarded as hostile towards him, has been defunded and shut down. The administration took control over which media organisations have access to the White House, ejecting the Associated Press. US media outlets were stripped of their Pentagon credentials after refusing to only report officially authorised information issued by the Department of Defense.

Trump’s former strategist Steve Bannon appeared to be break cover with claims of a plan to circumvent the constitution to allow Trump a third term.

As citizens of Germany found in the 1930s, democracy is” herr” today and gone tomorrow!

 

“Power to the people no delay Make everybody see In order to fight the powers that be”

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

Click on the link to see all Brexit Bulletins: