I’m So Bored With the USA: Fit For Purpose?

 

 

“Your love is king, crown you in my heart

Your love is king, never need to part “

 

For the sake of clarity, I will be using the term king with a small “k”, to differentiate from our current monarch.

 

Today, we consider those who are currently king, and those who would-be king.

Politics is fundamentally subjective, some are right-wing others are left-wing, this fundamentally dominates their political thoughts and intentions. Today, I want to put that to one-side and try to consider objectively the suitability of those who are king and those who want to be.

In many ways objectivity and subjectivity in politics are intertwined and also impossible to separate. Each of us has a fundamental start point; some believe that we encourage benefit scroungers who simply run riot with our taxes, others believe that alleviating poverty is a price we should all be willing to pay.

We start with he who would be king; Nigel Farage. Farage is Reform, take him away and there is little left. That isn’t an opinion it is a fact.

Reform was born out of the Brexit Party in early 2021, led by Richard Tice, after Farage stepped down as leader.

During the Johnson years, Reform languished in the polls, drifting from <1% at the start of 2020 to 3% when Liz Truss became PM in September 2022.

Following her disastrous Truss mini-budget and subsequent resignation, Reform’s fortunes started to improve; polling at C.6% by the beginning of 2023. However, as voter’s concerns over immigration increased, this was reflected in the party’s popularity, and by the time of the June 2024 election they were at 13%.

There was a marked increase when, on 3rd of June, Farage returned to lead the party. In the election they finished third in terms of vote share, on 14.3%. Since the election they have more than doubled their support.

The question then is Farage fit to be PM.

Putting aside the nuisance value he has bought to politics and how it has decimated both Labour and Conservatives, his only “actual political achievement” is Brexit. I would suggest, without fear of contradiction that, without him, Brexit wouldn’t have happened.

 

‘without him, Brexit wouldn’t have happened’

 

In my opinion, there were both “soft” and “hard” drivers for Brexit. The soft are the hardest to measure as they are based on, what I would describe as, an attitude of mind. They include:

 

• Sovereignty: to “take back control of our money, laws and borders”, without interference from either EU laws or and courts.
• “Left behind” and Anti-Establishment Sentiment: some felt that globalization and economic change had excluded them. Alongside this there was an anti-establishment feeling, a distrust of political elites in both London and Brussels.
• Identity: A longing for British nationalism and a belief in British “exceptionalism”, led to a historical detachment from the European project.

 

The hard drivers are measurable, and include:

 

• Immigration: The principle of free movement within the EU was a key issue for many people.
• Economy: there was the belief that the EU and its over-regulation was a drag on the UK economy

 

In my view the soft drivers, the attitude of mind, are the outdated vestiges of empire, and of people scared by progressiveness. I find them pointless.

The hard drivers are where the real benefits were, or at least, should have been.

Economically, Brexit has proved both a substantial and persistent drag; recent studies estimate that our GDP is 6-8% lower as a result.

Business investment is particularly affected, falling by an estimated 12-18%.

Other impacts include lower employment, reduced productivity growth, and increased trade friction due to new rules and tariffs, which, in-turn, lead to higher food prices and lost tax revenue

In defending Brexit, Farage’s explanation cane be summed-up as, “I would have done it better!”

For him, national sovereignty and control over borders are paramount. His view on our current economic and social issues stem from the Conservative government’s “betrayal” and poor implementation of the exit, not Brexit itself. He asserts that the UK has not achieved a “clean break” from the EU.

Turning to immigration: “From July 2014 to June 2015, the non-EU net migration in the UK was positive by 163,000. Four years later, it had increased by 37.5%”.

Net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 due to a surge of foreign workers encouraged to come to the UK by Johnson’s Tory government as we emerged from Covid.

Under Labour, for the 12-months to June 2025, net migration fell by more than two-thirds to 204,000.

Whilst immigration has been key to Reform’s recent ascent in the polls, that might now be halted as Farage’s school days comments, which have distinctly racist connotations, continue to haunt him.

YouGov currently show them at 25% down from a high of 29%. More in Common show them at 30% off a high of 33%.

Last week, a group of eleven Holocaust survivors demanded Farage tell the truth and apologise for the antisemitic comments that fellow pupils of Dulwich college allege he made toward Jewish pupils.

To date, Farage’s defence or explanation has been somewhat confused and contradictory, ranging from denial to having never racially abused anyone with intent but may have engaged in “banter in a playground”.

 

‘As Holocaust survivors, we understand the danger of hateful words – because we have seen where such words lead’

 

In this letter, they wrote: “As Holocaust survivors, we understand the danger of hateful words – because we have seen where such words lead.

“Let us be clear: praising Hitler, mocking gas chambers, or hurling racist abuse is not banter. Not in a playground. Not anywhere.

“When allegations arise about invoking Nazi attitudes toward Jewish children, the responsible response is honesty, reflection, and commitment to truth.

“So we ask you: did you say ‘Hitler was right’ and ‘gas them,’ mimicking gas chambers? Did you subject your classmates to antisemitic abuse?”

Aside from pupils who have endorsed the claims of antisemitic abuse made by Peter Ettudgi, others former pupils from minority ethnic backgrounds have said Farage directly abused them.

One said Farage would call him a “Paki” and has described as “rubbish” the claim that Farage did not act with intent to hurt.

Most recently Yinka Bankole, said a teenage Farage told him “that’s the way back to Africa.”

The final word on the would be king goes to the holocaust survivors: “Those who hope to lead our country should never divide people by race or religion. Antisemitic hatred must never be normalised. This moment is about moral responsibility. The choice is yours, Mr Farage.”

Their intervention followed comments made by Reform UK’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, who describes the testimony of more than two dozen people as “made-up twaddle”.

Ahhh yes, Dickie, he would-be the kings right-hand. It would seem his comments haven’t helped the would-be king!

Racism would seem to be an issue in the court of our would-be king.

Ian Cooper, the Reform leader of Staffordshire county council, is alleged to have called Sadiq Khan, the London mayor, a “narcissistic Pakistani” and said migrants were “intent on colonising the UK, destroying all that has gone before”.

In a post attacking the justice secretary, David Lammy, this year, Cooper allegedly wrote: “No foreign national or first generation migrant should be allowed to sit in parliament.”

Our current king, PM Starmer, said Farage was a “a toxic, divisive disgrace” after the Reform leader said in a campaign video that Glasgow was experiencing a “cultural smashing” as nearly one in three pupils in the city spoke English as a second language.

With reference to immigration, it often said that the NHS would grind to a halt without migrant workers.

If so, it appears we might soon find out. Data published by the Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC), shows that the number of overseas nurses and midwives coming to the UK is collapsing, with rising racism and changes to immigration rules being blamed.

 

‘the number of overseas nurses and midwives coming to the UK is collapsing, with rising racism and changes to immigration rules being blamed’

 

Between April and September, 6,321 nurses and midwives from abroad were licensed to practice in the UK, compared with 12,534 who did so in the same period in 2024. In addition, more are leaving Britain.

Between April and September, 58% fewer nurses and midwives from India – which supplies the most foreign nurses in the NHS – joined the NMC register. Whilst, the number of nurses arriving from the Philippines fell by 68%, from Nigeria by 28% and from Ghana by 9%.

The shifts identified by the NMC mirror those among overseas-trained doctors. They are leaving the UK in record numbers and a surge over recent years in overseas-trained doctors joining the NHS has plateaued, according to a report last month by the General Medical Council.

Turning to matters economic, readers will have noticed my typical lack of budget commentary. Others do it better, so I leave it to them.

As a budget it was most notable for what was missed, or deliberately overlooked.

What is clear is that from April 2029 British workers and businesses are scheduled to be paying another £26bn a year in tax. Little of this will be spent on better hospitals or new libraries or happier lives, and, despite whatever the right and their media might tell us, it wasn’t “a budget for Benefits Street, paid for by working people.”

Instead, some 50% of the extra revenue is there to allow chancellor Reeves a buffer against her own fiscal rules. Also, only 17% of the taxes will go on actual new spending, such as scrapping the two-child cap on child benefit.

What the budget wasn’t is what the right have been telling everyone it was. It doesn’t tax workers to benefit the shirkers, it was aimed at reassuring bond markets.

 

‘It doesn’t tax workers to benefit the shirkers, it was aimed at reassuring bond markets’

 

Investors had become increasingly concerned with how little headroom the government had, and this was being reflected by the fact we were paying the highest interest rate of all the G7 countries. Post the budget yields have fallen, and soon the government might be able to claim that it was their budget which allowed the BoE to cut interest rates.

This, needless to say, hasn’t placated the supporters of he who would be king, or perhaps, his Tory counterpart, as they continue their media inspired campaign to destroy the government by any means possible, with the truth being an afterthought.

The Telegraph reported, “More Dishonesty from Rachel Reeves”, after Sir John Redwood allegedly discovered a £1.3 trillion “debt mountain” in our finances.

Using the political expedient that 2+2 equals whatever is required, Redwood combined the government’s planned borrowing over the next five years and added it to maturing debt, thus arriving at £1.3 trillion.

What they forgot to mention was that 93% of the debt maturing the next five years was issued by the previous Tory government, and Labours’ spending and funding is largely a continuation of previous planned Govt plans.

Also, there is strong investor demand for Gilts; this year we will fund >£300bn, with issued covered 3x.

 

‘We are in the same rut as ever. Time to rejoin Europe and stimulate trade, or stay in the slow lane!’

 

Unfortunately, besides placating markets, and making positive steps to overcoming poverty, the budget delivered little else, with per-capita disposable incomes set to rise by a mere 0.5% p.a over the rest of the parliament.

Where growth comes from is still a mystery, and without it “securonomics” is little more than an exercise in buying time with concessions to restive Labour MPs and hoping to avoid economic accidents.

We are in the same rut as ever. Time to rejoin Europe and stimulate trade, or stay in the slow lane!

 

 

“Standing there in the graveyard While the moon sprays its fireworks in your hair The sound of failure calls her name She’s decided to hear it out”

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/03/fear-future-british-politics-stuck-past

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/dec/05/labour-plan-child-poverty-government-strategy-britain

 

‘This week we consider whether he who would be king, and those who are currently king are fit for purpose.

But, speaking of kings I came across a fascinating stat regarding the number of royal grace-and-favour residences and their costs. Research by the former Liberal Democrat minister Norman Baker showed that in 1993, the last year for which he was able to discover a figure for such residences, there were 272. By contrast, the number of “working” royals stands at 11.

Another interesting stat is the £9m donation Reform received from Christopher Harborne, a leading cryptocurrency investor.

Maybe I am cynical, but donations of this magnitude from the uber rich smack of buying influence.

I have been relatively quiet on the situation with Ukraine and Trump’s attempts to enforce a peace settlement.

There are concerns that Trump may walk away from the Ukrainian war, based on what his  oldest son has said in comments to a Middle East conference.

In a lengthy tirade against the purpose of continued fighting in Ukraine, Donald Trump Jr also said Ukraine’s “corrupt” rich had fled their country leaving “what they believed to be the peasant class” to fight the war.

The much heralded perception is that Putin is calling the shots as he feels Russia is winning and is happy to let events play out.

More accurately, with at least 250,000 war dead and, with perhaps a further 750,000 wounded, recruitment becomes difficult, and he has no option but to have a winner’s peace.

Optically, the Russian economy has held up remarkably so far, thanks to a “war economy” boost by two years of growth artificially fuelled by higher defence spending,  and flourishing ties with China and India.

But, beneath the surface cracks are appearing.

Inflation is up, at 8%; interest rates top 16%. The budget deficit is rising, more than half of Russia’s liquid sovereign wealth fund has been squandered since 2022, state monopolies face huge debts, foreign investment has plunged, import costs of strategic goods have risen by 122%, and consumer taxes are soaring, all to fund Putin’s war. Russians must even pay more to drown their sorrows: the price of vodka is up 5%.

Their oil and gas income, which represents C.50% of state revenue, is down 27% year-on-year, and recession looms.

A new LSE experts’ report, “Against the Clock: Why Russia’s War Economy is Running Out of Time”, found that while the war has “dramatically improved” the incomes of 20% of Russians, it is hugely socially divisive. “For the bulk of Russians, real incomes have fallen by 16% to 42%,”

On the battlefield, all isn’t what it appears, as Ukraine has identified a weak spot: Russia’s refineries, pipelines and “shadow fleet” of oil tankers carrying illicit exports. A third tanker was set ablaze in the Black Sea last week by naval drone strikes.

Some 80% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports go through the Danish straits in “shadow fleet” ships that generally don’t meet international safety and environmental standards. Europe could slow this revenue flow by stopping and rigorously inspecting those ships.

Kyiv is regularly hitting energy facilities deep inside Russia, damaging more than a third of Russia’s oil refineries, causing panic and fuel shortages. Meanwhile, Russia’s two energy giants, Rosneft and Lukoil, are reeling as Asian buyers, including in China’s vital market, rush to avoid secondary US sanctions.

Ukraine’s PM Zelenskyy is in London for talks with Messrs Starmer, Macron and Merz for peace plan talks, and the message should be to hold firm.

Providing Europe can generate sufficient military and economic support for Ukraine, and economic pressure on Russia, then at some point in 2026 or 2027 the incentive structure for Putin would change. His generals would tell him “we’re not getting anywhere” and his central bank would tell him “the economy is cracking”.

Lyrically, we start with “Your Love Is King” by Sade, not something either our king or he who would be king can lay claim to. We end with the more appropriate “The Sound of Failure” by The Flaming Lips.

Long live Ukraine!

Philip.’

 

@coldwarsteve

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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