If we were already out of the EU, would we want to rejoin? Thoughts of Saltydog Investor
I guess that today, the ‘Globalists’ (Remainers) among us would be saying yes, whilst the ‘Populists’ (Leavers) would be saying no.
It is unfortunate for a wavering leaver like myself that I am represented by the likes of Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, both active populists who believe in country first and the world second.
I have to say, I would not want either of these two philanderers near any member of my family, but are they the right people for the time?
You would think that there must be people of a sufficient moral calibre to resist the creep of globalisation control and the dumbing down of the population.
Where are those with experience in the real world, outside of finance, the law and politics, who could lead the country forward?
Many politicians from all persuasions have never held a ‘real’ job, where their work has added wealth to the nation. In fact there are not many that I would trust to look after my cat, let alone the country!
‘there are not many that I would trust to look after my cat, let alone the country!’
Sorry about the rant, but all my working life I travelled abroad, proud to be selling goods manufactured in the United Kingdom, proud to be waving the flag, but today, the carry-on in Parliament just leaves me feeling depressed for the welfare of our country and future generations.
In the UK, it would appear that the ‘remainers’ in parliament have decided that the ‘uneducated’ masses cannot be trusted to vote on a fundamental issue such as Brexit, and that the result should be overturned.
They think they are wiser and know better than the majority. They want to remain in the EU for mainly non-economic reasons, but latch on to and distort economic arguments in order to promote their objectives.
Now is probably the time to look at a few economic statistics which I understand to be correct
- Since 1973 the European Union’s share of world trade has fallen from 34% to 22% and is still falling.
- The average annual growth of the EU has been 1.6%, in the USA and Canada it has been 2.1% and in the UK it has been 1.9%.
- The unemployment rate today in the EU is 6.7%, whilst in the UK it is 3.3%.
- The growth of China, India, and other Asian Emerging Nations has created a vast market that wishes to trade with the United Kingdom.
I am well aware that these statements are open to interpretation and there are many other statistics that can be used, but the basic facts are that none of the above four give a positive financial reason to remain in the European Union.
Not if you want to increase the well-being of the bulk of the population and spend money on improving education, health, the police force and the country’s infrastructure.
Today, we do not know which way this cookie is going to crumble. Will the UK leave, or will it remain, and will anything have taken place by the 31st October?
As a D.I.Y. investor without the preferential or insider knowledge which might be available to the major financial institutions, we still have to try to put our investments into a safe place for the future.
Firstly, I am making the assumption, that if Brexit takes place without a so-called deal, and we leave under WTO rules, then there will be an initial fall in the value of sterling which will increase the value of all my dollar invested funds.
Secondly, if the remainers win the day, and there is no exit from the EU, then the converse will be true. Sterling will strengthen, dollar invested funds will fall in value, but funds invested in the UK should rise in value.
Thirdly, interest rates will continue to remain low or negative, accompanied by further Quantitative Easing, and this will probably support prices in the bond and equity markets.
Finally, I cannot see any end to the “chest beating” which is stoking the trade wars between USA and China and thus reducing the growth of world trade. In a similar vein there does not seem to be any end to the Iranian and American “head to head” confrontation.
What do I do in order to protect my financial well-being in the immediate future and going forward into 2020? It is anyone’s guess, and yours is likely to be as good if not better than mine. As always, I would be interested to know your thoughts.
I am simply going to hold roughly equal amounts of cash, gold (in bullion and mining funds), UK invested funds, and dollar invested technology funds.
I will then ignore the bias coming from the news bulletins and watch the Saltydog numbers and graphs to get a feel for which of the above need to be lifted or reduced.
Choosing the funds is not the problem, it is being in the winning sector that is important.
As the Meercats on the television advert would say ‘It’s Simple Sergei’! If only it was!
Best wishes and good investing,
Founder & Chairman
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