Heroes: Why we Need to Learn From the 1930s 

 

‘I wanna war, between the rich and the poor 

I wanna fight and know what I’m fighting for’ 

 

This column has constantly warned about the insidious rise of hard-right politicians. This isn’t because I enjoy scaremongering it’s because their a genuine concern that we are heading in that direction. 

 

In the 1930’s the map of Europe turned black as Fascism rose to prominence in Germany, Italy, Spain,  Portugal, Greece and Hungary. In France Fascism was popular but never attained power, in the UK Mosley and his mob had their 15-minutes of fame. 

Today, Fascists prefer to be called Populists, probably because it makes the feel better about themselves. 

The reason for the rise of fascism in recent years in the devastation caused by the GFC and the subsequent policy mistakes of cheap money and austerity which have seen the ‘haves’ thrive whilst the ‘have-nots’ got poorer. 

In the UK whilst the populism of Johnson is no more, under Sunak we have an equally hardline government without the slapstick entertainment. 
 

‘Fascists prefer to be called Populists, probably because it makes the feel better about themselves’

 

The opposition, primarily Labour, who, whilst enjoying a large lead in the polls seem paralysed by the fear of defeat, consequently they resemble a tribute act rather than an alternative.    

Caution is their watchword; Starmer has confirmed that Labour will not change the two-child benefit cap, which generally restricts tax credit and universal credit to the first two children in a family. He had previously supported scrapping the cap before he was Labour leader. 

In addition, Starmer would not commit to unfreezing housing benefit, saying the party would set out its policy before the election.  

Climate change is one of the most important issues that we face, yet the hard-right opposes it. 

In Texas they are waging war on renewable energy, while a proposed law in Ohio lists climate policies as a ‘controversial belief or policy’ in which universities are forbidden to ‘inculcate’ their students. 

Florida, one of the US states most prone to climate disaster, especially rising seas and hurricanes sees  governor, Ron DeSantis building his bid for the presidency on the back of climate denial, having denounced climate science as ‘politicisation of the weather’.  

In the UK the government is scrapping the £11.6bn international climate fund it promised, and Labour has postponed its £28bn green prosperity fund. 
 

‘Climate change is one of the most important issues that we face, yet the hard-right opposes it’

 

As temperature records continue to tumble, leading energy companies seem intent on only making matters worse as they continue to expand fossil fuel production, insisting that there is no alternative. In truth it’s about the continuing quest for increased profits, experts say. 

‘The fossil fuel industry has massively profited from selling a dangerous product and now innocent people and governments across the globe are paying the price for their recklessness,’ Naomi Oreskes, a history of science professor at Harvard University who studies the oil industry, said. 

Timmons Roberts, professor of environment and sociology at Brown University said, ‘It became clear that they’re motivated by profits,’ adding that the drive is unsurprising, since CEOs of public companies can be removed if they do not maximize profit growth. 
 

• BP scaled back an earlier goal of lowering its emissions by 35% by 2030, saying it will aim for a 20 to 30% cut instead.  
• ExxonMobil withdrew funding for a project to use algae to create low-carbon fuel.  

 

• Shell announced that it would not increase its investments in renewable energy this year, despite earlier promises to dramatically slash its emissions. 

 

Instead they are doubling down; Shell promised to cut oil production by 20% by 2030, but then this year said it already met that goal by selling off some operations to another oil company. BP has also expanded gas drilling. And Exxon’s CEO, Darren Woods, told an industry conference last month that his company plans to double the amount of oil produced from its US shale holdings within the next five years. 

The underlying problem is what the economist Thomas Piketty calls the patrimonial spiral of wealth accumulation (1). In 2021, the ultra-rich captured almost two-thirds of all the world’s new wealth. Their share of national income in the UK has almost doubled since 1980, while in the US it’s higher than it was in 1820. 

The richer a fraction of society becomes, the greater its political power, and the more extreme the demands it makes. This makes it difficult to solve common problems when so much power is concentrated in the hands of a few. 

The ultra-rich want to sustain and extend the economic system that put them where they are. To this end, in addition to the traditional approach of buying media outlets and funding the political parties that favour them, they devise new ways of protecting their interests, hiring thinktanks to devise new laws to stifle protest, implemented by politicians they fund. 
 

‘they devise new ways of protecting their interests, hiring thinktanks to devise new laws to stifle protest, implemented by politicians they fund’

 

Hard-right parties are there for the ‘haves’, and they favour failed economic policies such as austerity and neoliberalism. This is where the contradiction comes in; these governments exacerbate the wealth gap but their policies on immigration gives them leverage with the ‘have-nots’ as immigrants become the target of their anger rather than the failed governments.   

Added to incendiary policies on immigration the UK government has chosen to pick a fight with the public sector leading to a slew of industrial action. 

This ‘get tough’ display has benefitted no one, and could have been settled months ago.  

The head of the IFS, Paul Johnson, estimates that it would cost C. £4bn to settle the pay demands of hard-pressed public sector staff at the rates set by the pay review bodies. Out of total UK public spending of around £1tn, it’s trivial. 

The pay demands may look optically exorbitant, but that is due to years of sub-optimal pay increases. In real terms, senior teachers in England have lost 13%, an average of around £6,600, since 2010; senior police constables have lost 17%; and doctors, nurses, health visitors and prison officers have also lost heavily.  

TUC calculations show that public sector workers have lost an average £260 a month in real terms compared with 2010, falling well behind private employees.  
 

‘the UK government has chosen to pick a fight with the public sector leading to a slew of industrial action’

 

The chair of the BMA’s UK council said Rishi Sunak’s pay increase offer ‘fails to address’ years of below-inflation pay deals. Prof Phil Banfield added that the government’s offer ‘is exactly why so many doctors are feeling they have no option but to take industrial action’. 

Claims that the pay rises would increase inflation are a red-herring; public services don’t put up the prices of their products in the same way to cover the cost.  

All of this, austerity, immigration, the wealth gap, creates an undercurrent of instability that right-wing politicians can exploit. The examples of this closest to home were ‘Vote Leave’ in the 2016 EU referendum followed by the ‘Brexit election’ of 2019. 

Spain’s Vox party has its roots in Franco’s fascism, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy’s has comparable roots in Mussolini’s fascism. It seems that in much of Europe Liberals and the left are in retreat as the electorate turns to parties that celebrate the primacy of family and faith, oppose same-sex marriage, want a crackdown on immigration and multiculturalism, do not believe in climate change, critique all things woke, and, above all, believe their nation is more special than any other.  

In Finland, Denmark, Austria, Sweden, Poland, Italy, and Hungary they are represented in either national or regional government, and in Germany, France, Holland, and Spain  they soon could be. 

In Hungary, Viktor Orbán has created a new ‘democracy’ allowing only his party to rule, eliminating an independent judiciary and a free press. In Poland, Jaroslaw Kaczyński and Mateusz Morawiecki are trying to copy Orbán and take Poland back to its Catholic conservative roots.  

Interestingly, whatever the right does when attacking the basic constructs of a democratic order leaving the EU isn’t in their agenda. 

On Sunday Spain goes to the polls, the resurgent centre-right People’s party (PP) is averaging a 6-point poll lead, putting it within striking distance of victory – assuming its leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, can find acceptable allies of his own. The far-right Vox, the third-largest party and Francoist tribute act, currently polling C.14%, could help Feijóo’s PP, gain a winning margin. 

The rhetoric has become hate-filled, Santiago Abascal, leader of Vox, falsely claimed that almost 70% of gang rapes were committed by foreigners. Not dissimilar to our 2016 Brexit referendum and Nigel Farage’s explosive ‘breaking point’ poster depicted a horde of migrants heading towards Britain. The same photograph was used in Hungary’s election by its prime minister, Viktor Orbán, under the headline ‘Stop’. Hungary is the European country with the lowest level of citizens born outside the country, but Orbán’s ‘copy and paste’ campaign made the demand for walls to stop non-existent ‘invaders’ the election-winning issue. 
 

‘Vox’s nationalism goes beyond opposing immigration, and is violently anti-gay and anti-feminist’

 

Vox’s nationalism goes beyond opposing immigration, and is violently anti-gay and anti-feminist, defining these movements as a threat to the very existence of the nation state. When in coalitions at local level the party has closed down any gender equality initiatives, creating in their place ‘departments for families‘. In Valencia, Vox has forced a change in the definition of domestic violence, reducing it to no more than an ‘intrafamilial’ issue. In the Balearic Islands, the party is removing any formal recognition of the LGBTQ+ movement. Additionally, its ultra-nationalist agenda includes stamping out movements for regional autonomy by banning Catalan and Basque secessionist parties. 

Economically, it more neoliberal madness; the privatisation of utilities, the expansion of private health and top-rate tax cuts, including the abolition of the current wealth tax in place until 2024.  
 

‘This is really history repeating itself. The last time the 1929 Wall St crash was the catalyst, alone with a botched peace and an overhang from WW1’

 

The election is Spain is a watershed moment, victory for the right will embolden their contemporaries parties that are proliferating across the continent. The far-right German party, AfD, has C.20% support nationally, and won its first local election outright, moving within sight of the CDU/CSU, which, at only 25%, is being cowed into moving even further rightwards. The Finns party has just taken seven ministries in the recently formed right-wing Finnish government. Austria’s far-right Freedom party looks set to be the governing party after next year’s election. Could ‘Take back control’ become the slogan that enables Marine Le Pen to take power in France, with her promise to end to street violence and to restore order 

This is really history repeating itself. The last time the 1929 Wall St crash was the catalyst, alone with a botched peace and an overhang from WW1. Now, it’s austerity bought on by the GFC, scapegoating Jews has been replaced by immigration in general and anti-Muslim rhetoric. 

I suspect that despite their nationalistic stance Brexit will show them the wisdom of remaining within the EU.  

‘The hillsides ring with ‘Free the people’ 

Or can I hear the echo from the days of ’39? 

With trenches full of poets, the ragged army 

Fixin’ bayonets to fight the other line’ 

Notes: 
 

1. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674979857&content=reviews 

 

 

A return to the familiar themes of inequality and the rise of fascisim from Philip, for the very good reason that they are intrinsic to so much of what has been going on. His preamble tells the tale:

As readers will know there are recurring themes in these articles, primarily because the column was borne out of Brexit, itself a result of these themes. The themes I refer to are income inequality and the rise of fascism.

Our attempt was somewhat vaudeville; the clownish Johnson followed by the self-assured and totally delusional Liz Truss. The real, but unwitting perpetrators were Messrs Cameron and Osborne, who inherited an economy showing signs of recovery post the GFC and took us back to the austerity of the 1930s.

The latest incarnation, Rishi Sunak, might look like a schoolboy but don’t be fooled. He is every bit as hardline, and in many ways more dangerous.

The question is, can he find a way to win in 2024? Having swung for and against him, I am now undecided. If we assume the Tory’s can’t get any worse, surely that isn’t possible, then Labour’s lead might start to narrow if the economy shows signs of improvement. The fact that this would simply be due to timing and events won’t stop Sunak / Hunt claiming the glory.

My caution is two-fold:

·       Starmer is increasingly a Tory tribute act, and

·       The “left” vote will be divided between Labour / LibDems / Greens letting the Tory’s in

Should “light-blue Kier” triumph, will his tribute act change anything? More importantly, why would it? If so, will the electorate fall out-of-love-with “mainstream” parties and embrace something altogether more sinister.

What happens in Spain on Sunday will give us a clue.

Lyrically, it’s Antifa all the way; we start with “Class War” by the Dils, to finish we have “Spanish Bombs” by the Clash. Enjoy!

@coldwarsteve
 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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