Heroes: Priorities Dear Boy….Priorities! 

 

‘You can try and read my lyrics off of this paper before I lay ’em 

But you won’t take the sting out these words before I say ’em 

‘Cause ain’t no way I’ma let you stop me from causin’ mayhem’ 

 
Wonders never cease, Sunak has arisen from his summer slumber as a new crisis rocks the country. Before you get excited, No, he isn’t fixing the economy, or the broken NHS, or indeed any of the public sector strikes. It’s far more serious, Coutts bank have decided to close Nigel Farage’s accounts! 

In fact it is so serious that there have been a host of interventions as ministers and Conservative MPs piled in on the controversy, with Jacob Rees-Mogg pressing Rishi Sunak to open a public inquiry during prime minister’s questions. 

Coutts had decided to cut ties with Farage once his mortgage expired this year. Without a mortgage, Farage fell below their financial threshold of a minimum of £3m in savings, or borrowing or investing at least £1m with them. The bank said; 

‘The relationship has been below commercial criteria for some time and upon review of Nigel’s past public profile and connections, the perceived risks for the future weighed against the benefit of retention, the decision was taken to exit upon repayment of an existing mortgage.’ 

This week Farage released internal documents obtained from the bank, which stated it was concerned about his ‘xenophobic, chauvinistic and racist views‘ and believed maintaining his accounts posed a risk to the bank’s reputation. 

The documents highlighted Farage’s ties to controversial politicians such as Donald Trump and his views on issues including migration and Russia, stating his comments ‘are not in line with our views or our purpose’. 

Whilst the FCA has contacted the owner of Coutts, their CEO told MPs that while lenders cannot discriminate against customers, it is ultimately up to firms to decide who to do business with. 

Farage has been offered banking through Nat West, but that means he will have to be lumped in with commoners, many of whom could be the mugs he led down the garden path with Brexit.  

In truth his past is coming back to haunt him. After all, how could someone who said ‘normal and fair-minded person would have a perfect right to be concerned if a group of Romanian people suddenly moved in next door‘ be xenophobic or racist?  

The same goes for his infamous ‘breaking point‘ anti-migrant poster during the Brexit campaign, with its megaphone untruth of using a photo of migrants crossing the Croatia-Slovenia border in 2015 to raise the fear of a mass invasion of Dover.  
 

‘Sunak would be better spending his time doing his job’

 
Sunak would be better spending his time doing his job, the 5-pledges he asked the public to judge his government by are not on track to be met. People are struggling to get by, public services are falling apart and the state’s safety net has holes so large whole families are falling through. 

But what about the opposition?  

The LibDems are tapping into a rich vein of discontent over collapsing NHS services. If the party is able to recapture its English south-west strongholds, they could deprive the Tories of enough seats to give Labour a chance of forming the next government. 

From Labour’s perspective the general anti-Tory mood in the country hasn’t yet turned into unequivocal support for them.  

As Labour’s poll leads have grown, so has Starmer’s criticism of the policies he stood on to become Labour leader. This has proved too much for some party members, such as  Jamie Driscoll, the serving leftwing mayor of the North of Tyne, who has left the party and is standing as an independent. 

This week there has been considerable controversy over Starmer’s decision to retain the policy that caps benefits after the second child, keeping 250,000 children in absolute poverty. No other country has enacted such a policy. Its architect, the former Tory chancellor George Osborne, claimed it would discourage poorer families from having children. Instead it has made families poorer.  
 

‘Too often Starmer is dancing to the Tories’ tune’

 
Too often Starmer is dancing to the Tories’ tune. Projected government borrowing over the next 2-years is C.£217bn, Labour risks defeating itself if it cannot spend a hundredth of the current fiscal deficit to reverse an ineffective austerity measure that hurts the poorest people. It is estimated that removing the cap would cost C. £1.3bn p.a.. 

Whatever New Labour’s failings, it succeeded in taking a million children out of poverty. Since then, the two-child benefit cap has driven 250,000 children into poverty, and another 850,000 deeper below the breadline. 

Prior to Starmer’s U-turn Labour were unequivocal in their condemnation of the policy. The shadow work and pensions secretary, Jonathan Ashworth, described it recently as ‘heinous‘, and back in 2020, the deputy party leader, Angela Rayner, declared that ‘the obscene and inhumane two-child cap must go’. When standing for the Labour leadership, Keir Starmer, too, said it had to go.  
 

‘what is the point of a Labour government if it won’t tackle child poverty in its first term in office?’

 
The change of heart begs the question, what is the point of a Labour government if it won’t tackle child poverty in its first term in office? 

The policy has considerable implications for our birthrate  which is falling putting creating an ageing population supported by a shrinking workforce. This is causing panic among Tory MPs such as Miriam Cates, who describes it as the country’s most pressing issue but blames ‘cultural Marxism’: she would do better to consider how her party penalises children.  

Increasing child poverty makes them more likely to suffer ill health, burdening the NHS, and they are less likely to realise their educational potential, which holds the country back. 

Labour was founded to improve the lot of the working class, as an alternative to the Liberals and the Tories who championed the business class. The party’s justification for not eradicating child poverty was the same argument used by Osborne: that there is no money to do so. 

Labour could raise revenue by asking the well-to-do to pay more in tax but chooses not to do so. Instead, the party is aping the Tory policy of chasing economic growth. But, if there is no redistribution of wealth income inequality will continue to grow. 

In effect Labour are becoming a Tory tribute act, and offer no alternatives, no wonder George Osborne said ‘it wouldn’t be terrible for the country‘ if Starmer and Reeves were in government. 
 

‘In effect Labour are becoming a Tory tribute act’

 
As to yesterday’s 3-byelections. With Sunak chasing a record equalling 3-defeats in 1-night it was honours even, sort of! 

The Tories retained Johnson’s old seat Uxbridge, with the slimmest of majorities. Commentators thought that Mayor Khan’s plan to extend the ULEZ area had more to do with them retaining the seat than anything else. The key takeaway, find local issues. 

Labour won Selby with a majority of just over 4,000, with a swing of nearly 24 percentage points. Such a result repeated nationally would lead to a landslide general election victory. 

The Lib Dems won Somerton with a majority of 11,000 and a swing of 29 percentage points. Over the three seats, the Tories dropped an average of 21 percentage points.  

For the Conservatives, there were reasons to hope and reasons for despair. Tory MPs stressed that the Uxbridge result showed voters were unconvinced by Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, and would vote against him when given a good reason to do so. 

Laura Trott, the pensions minister, told Sky News: ‘There is no overwhelming love for Starmer. The electorate are not sold on him and that’s come through strongly in these results.’ 

The statistics reveal some interesting points: 
 

• The Tories can also point to the fact that Selby and Somerton were lost not so much because of thousands of Tory voters switching parties but because so many stayed at home.  
• In Selby, the Conservatives dropped 21,000 votes, but Labour gained fewer than 3,000.  
• In Somerton, the Tories lost 26,000 votes but the Lib Dems picked up just over 4,000. 

 
Both Selby and Somerton were also won with a substantial amount of tactical voting between Labour and Lib Dem voters. The Lib Dems came sixth in Selby, while Labour came fifth in Somerton, with a vote share so low the party lost its deposit. If similar behaviour is repeated at a general election it could wipe out the Tories in many different parts of the country. 

However, byelections are the not the best measure of voter sentiment; people vote against a government they hate, but in general elections they only ever choose the party they most trust to run the economy. 

Labour would be right to say that Tory orthodoxy on tax, spend and borrowing limits is artificial and growth-denying. But are the alternatives credible in the eyes of the majority? Yes, there are better alternatives, but being right in opposition isn’t what you want to be. 

Perhaps Starmer in dropping leadership campaign promises, such as nationalisation of utilities, raising taxes on the rich and scrapping tuition fees, and backing a two-child benefit limit, helps explain the Labour resurgence. In reality Labour’s popularity is down to Tory failings and the most comprehensive self-destruction of any British government in democratic history: two PM’s resigning in disgrace, one for illegality, the other for crashing the economy; endless scandals; and the most acute squeeze on living standards on record. 

Proof of this is represented by Starmer’s minus 22 favourability rating with YouGov. 
 

‘two PM’s resigning in disgrace, one for illegality, the other for crashing the economy; endless scandals; and the most acute squeeze on living standards on record’

 
For the Tories, they still harbour hopes that a seat like Selby could return to them at the next general election if the economy improves. Whereas, Somerton and Frome was long viewed as the hardest seat to keep hold of. The circumstances of the byelection, the incumbent MP was suspended by his party over allegations of harassment and drug use , didn’t help. However, they fear that this hints at a potential recovery for the Lib Dems in the south-west, where they had a strong presence prior to 2015. A Lib-Dem resurgence here would further narrow any path to re-election. 

Henry Hill, the deputy editor of the Tory grassroots website ConservativeHome, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme ‘There is a sense not only that the government is in acute trouble now, but also mounting frustration that after 13 years in government, the party doesn’t feel like it’s achieved very much.’ 

Speaking of people that don’t achieve very much, we finish with the royals…if only we could. 
 

‘Speaking of people that don’t achieve very much, we finish with the royals’

 
Charles is in-line to receive a huge pay rise from the UK taxpayer, according to government plans to boost public funding of the monarchy by 45% from 2025. 

Whilst his subjects struggle with the cost of living crisis, a review of royal funding published by the Treasury on Thursday revealed the royal family’s grant is due to increase from £86m to £125m. 

The monarchy’s annual budget, known as the sovereign grant, is pegged against the profits from a national property portfolio called the crown estate. 

I really can’t be bothered to say anymore, it’s all bollocks. Nothing ever changes, upwardly mobile Tories getting their jollies cuddling up to a bunch of wasters living off the fat of the land 

Vive la revolution 
 

‘Cause I 

I wanna be 

Anarchy 

In this city’ 

 
Pretty self-explanatory from Philip this week – what is the state of the union in terms of the main political parties, what did we learn from the three recent byelections, and what happened to Mr Farage’s bank account?:

‘A very strange few days.

A government that has successfully ignored public sector strikes, specifically those of junior doctors and nurses suddenly gets all agitated because Coutts wants to close Nigel Farage’s bank account.

He’s getting all umpty because they have outed him as an odious racist who mates include Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

Given the statements he has made on race/ immigration, and “that” poster he does a very good impersonation of a racist.

From what I read, aside from this he falls below their financial criteria. Put another way, “you ‘aint for the funds, Nige”!

The real issue is snobbery; they have offered him a perfectly acceptable alternative with NatWest. He just doesn’t want to be seen rubbing shoulders with the hoi-polloi he incites.

Last nights’ byelections were somewhat underwhelming. Yes, the Tory’s suffered two huge swings against them but in both instances this was due to people turning against them and poor turnouts, rather than Labour or the LibDems gaining votes.

As I have written several times recently, “light blue” Kier is just a Tory tribute act. The reverse of that is so-many voters have been frightened off “tax and spend” Labour, means that he needs to be cautious.

The election will be closer than last nights’ results suggest. I can foresee a hung parliament with the LibDems holding the balance of power.

This could be interesting, it stretches credibility to imagine the LibDems propping up a Tory government. However, they are also more left-wing than “light blue” is, which might make a Labour/LibDem government uncomfortable bedfellows.

Then there are the royals. What’s there to say, Charles and William are billionaires yet they are still on the take from the country. If I am being charitable giving them any sort of pay rise let alone such a generous one is bad timing. If I revert to my cynical self, it’s the establishment doing what it does best, looking after their own.

Lyrically, I have picked songs to reflect my anger and dismay. We start with “Not Afraid” by Eminem, and play out with “Anarchy in the U.K.” by Sex Pistols. The sentiment this displayed in 1976 is still relevant 47-yrs later. Sums up the country, really. Enjoy!
@coldwarsteve

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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