Heroes: Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite 

 

‘Allons enfant de la patrie 

Le jour de gloire (le jour de gloire) est arrivé (est arrivé)

Contre nous de la tyrannie 

L’étendart sanglant est levé1’ ⁽¹⁾ 

 
This week I look across the channel to France for inspiration, as the ‘sans culottes’ once again take to the streets. 

This time their protests are aimed at President Macron, whose decision to force through his plans to raise the pension age in France from 62 to 64 has caused great anger at, what is, a fiercely protected feature of French social policy. 

Such is the unrest that a planned state visit by King Charles on Sunday was postponed. 

Last Thursday tensions reached boiling point; in Bordeaux the doors of the city hall were set alight in a day of intensifying action on the streets. Across the country the unpopularity of Macron’s plans were visible. The authorities put the number of people on the streets at 1.1 million, while unions said it was about 3.5 million. 
 

‘The authorities put the number of people on the streets at 1.1 million, while unions said it was about 3.5 million’

 
In addition to the fire in Bordeaux, there were clashes in the capital, where it was reported, casseurs (smashers) in masks wrecking bus shelters and newspaper kiosks, breaking windows and throwing stones at police, who responded with tear gas. In Rouen, a woman reportedly had part of her hand blown off by a teargas grenade. 

Predictably, both sides blamed the other for the disturbances. The French interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, called the casseurs ‘thugs‘ and blamed ‘mostly young’ protesters on the ‘far left‘. Whereas, Marylise Léon, the deputy secretary general of the CFDT union, called the trouble ‘a response to the falsehoods expressed by the president and his incomprehensible stubbornness. The responsibility of this explosive situation lies not with the unions but with the government.’ 

Thursday’s protests were seen as particularly significant in part because they were the first measure of peoples reaction to Macron’s attempt to assert his authority. Even the government’s tally suggested that more people were on the street than at any point since he enacted the policy, and the total was the largest since a nationwide rally on 7 March.  

The night before the riots, Macron made a live TV appearance to defend his plan, and ruled out any change to the deeply unpopular policy, and also rejected calls for a reshuffle of his government or the resignation of his prime minister, Élisabeth Borne. He said he had only one regret: ‘That I have not succeeded in convincing people of the necessity of this reform.’ 

In addition to the increase in pension age, Macron’s desision to force the reforms through without a vote has raised wider concerns about the state of French democracy. 
 

‘Macron’s desision to force the reforms through without a vote has raised wider concerns about the state of French democracy’

 
His supporters point out that French men retire 2-years earlier than the EU average, and French women a year earlier. They reject tax increases as an alternative model, saying that France already has unusually high taxes, and that demographic changes make some kind of change inevitable: while there were 2.1 workers for each retiree in 2000, the ratio was 1.7 in 2020 and is expected to reach 1.2 by 2070. 

In addition, the national debt stands  at 113% of GDP (compared with Germany’s 67%),  Pensions spending is currently 14% of GDP, this allied with worsening demographics, supports Macron’s argument that France cannot afford a retirement age of 62. In the UK, it’s 66, in Germany, 65. 

While a deficit in the system is expected over the next 25-years, independent analysis by the pensions advisory council says the figures ‘do not support the claim that pensions spending is out of control‘. 
 

‘This is confirmed by polls showing that 66% of the electorate support the protesters; Macron’s approval rating is 28%’

 
The French public is fiercely protective of a system which means that French pensioners are less likely to live in poverty than those in most other European countries. This is confirmed by polls showing that 66% of the electorate support the protesters; Macron’s approval rating is 28%. Macron’s decision to force his plan through parliament without a vote is opposed by 82% of voters, and 65% want protests to continue even if the proposals become law. 

Macron, and his allies, are likely to use Thursday’s demonstrations as a way to drive a wedge between the protest movement and the rest of the French public.  
 

 
One likely beneficiary: the far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who has said she would overturn the changes as part of her ‘de-demonisation‘ strategy and is viewed as the public figure who best embodies opposition to the proposals. 

Why does this matter to this column, which is predominantly focussed on the UK? There are several reasons. 

Firstly, France isn’t alone in experiencing this demographic timebomb. The World Health Organization predicts that the world’s over-60 population will double by 2050. And the Group of 30 consultancy expects pension shortfalls to be the equivalent of 23% of global output by the same year. ⁽³⁾  
 

‘In the UK, by 2066 it is projected that there will be a further 8.6 million residents aged 65+’

 
In the UK, by 2066 it is projected that there will be a further 8.6 million residents aged 65+. The total number in this group could be 20.4 million, up to 26% of the total population. The fastest increase will be seen in the 85 years and over age group. ⁽²⁾ 

Five of the 10 local authorities with the highest percentage of the population aged 65 years and over are in the South West of England. ⁽²⁾ 

Secondly, both Sunak and Macron can be described as  ‘technocrats’. A term used to describe politicians who try to modernise countries such as Italy, countries that British journalists like to think are much more stuck and old-fashioned than us. In western democracies, technocrats are generally seen as clever, rigorous and a bit aloof, but practical rather than ideological. Which, given the quasi-religious zeal of successive Tory government and the mess that Corbyn left behind in the Labour party, sounds like a positive.  

To-date, Sunak has appeared to have solved problems that have dogged the Tories for years, from the Channel boats to the Irish border. Whilst his solutions may ultimately fail, his seeming ability to solve problems is stark compared to his two predecessors. 

However, don’t be fooled, his government is proving just as extreme as his predecessors. His proposals to ‘deal with’ strikers, protesters, lawyers, refugees, civil servants, the BBC and any group that displeases the Tories or their supporters, highlight how his government is continuing the Conservatives’ post-Brexit journey into dark waters. In January, the civil liberties group Human Rights Watch warned that ‘the most significant assault on human rights protections in the UK for decades’ was already under way. 

In summary, whilst he gives the impression of being a moderate technocrat, there is much more below the surface. 

Typically, technocrats doesn’t always fit within democracy. Their style of government is typically based on a small number of experts, with a high opinion of themselves, coming up with their answers to a country’s problems, which other politicians, the state bureaucracy and the rest of society are then told to follow. Rather like M. Macron’s proposed pension reforms. In times of economic stress this authoritarianism maybe become more prevalent, and more controversial.  
 

‘The absence of democracy and the existence of a police state provides ideal conditions to conduct socially disruptive economic experiments’

 
To an extent their behaviour fits well with the more authoritarian, such as dictators like General Franco in Spain and General Pinochet in Chile. The absence of democracy and the existence of a police state provides ideal conditions to conduct socially disruptive economic experiments. Whilst Sunak’s government isn’t as repressive, its latest public order legislation, which means that the ‘police will not need to wait for disruption to take place’ before they ‘shut protests down‘, could prove handy should the collapse in living standards forecast for the next 2-years finally brings furious Britons out on to the streets. 

Sunak’s wealth could also cause conflict. To date some of his policies, especially on tax have seen him defend the interests of fellow members of the 1% by any means necessary. Another example is the immense carbon footprints of the super-rich however, he seems more interested in jailing climate activists rather than tacking the former. 

Whilst the majority of his wealth derives from his marriage, his own work for hedge funds and Goldman Sachs, was with businesses detached from most voters’ economic realities. His actions show that he is unable to sympathise with the economic reality of others; E.G., his denial of the country’s economic mess, alongside his heated pool built when many voters can’t heat their homes. 

Governing as an authoritarian technocrat may not be the electoral liability that it sounds. Research in 2020 by the political scientists Tim Bale, Philip Cowley and Alan Wager found that the crucial voters who left Labour for the Tories in 2019 were ‘significantly more authoritarian … than even your average Conservative voter’. 

Which brings me onto my third concern, social unrest and the hard-right. Whilst France has a history of riots and revolution, the UK, by comparison, is much more sedate. However, there were inner city riots in the early-80’s as Thatcher’s reforms hit home, and later in the decade over the despised poll tax. 
 

‘there is a simmering undercurrent of dissatisfaction in the country’

 
Brexit, and Johnson’s 2019 landslide based on ‘levelling-up’, shows that there is a simmering undercurrent of dissatisfaction in the country. Levelling-up is a better indicator of that resentment; the wealth gap, income inequality. Despite promises this continues to get worse. The striking public sector workers show how unequal the country is, as a result our infrastructure is crumbling. 

The Office for Budget Responsibility calculate that British families are now facing a 2-year, 6% squeeze on living standards, which are expected to be lower in 2026 than in 2019. However, instead of prioritising this growing poverty, Jeremy Hunt gave £4bn over the next 5- years to rich, professional elderly people whose tax reliefs will work out costing more than £250,000 each for the 15,000 people OBR think will benefit. 

Poverty continues to get worse by the day; 2.1 million people are using food banks, and 14.4 million live in poverty, including 4.2 million children, the vast majority of whom are in families where the breadwinner is on low pay. 
 

‘British families are now facing a 2-year, 6% squeeze on living standards, which are expected to be lower in 2026 than in 2019’

 
More than 3-million UK adults are now estimated to be in hygiene poverty. The situation is now so serious that we now have toiletry bank’s (sometimes called the beauty bank), with 2,000 community organisations now giving out hygiene products. 

Like a pressure cooker, left untended it will blow-up, and the hard-right won’t be slow in courting the protestors. If France has Marine le Pen, we have …   
 

Empty skies say try to forget 

Better advice is to have no regrets 

As I tread the boulevard floor 

 
Notes: 

1. ‘Let’s go child of the fatherland, The day of glory (the day of glory) has arrived (has arrived), Against us from the tyranny, The bloody standard is raised..’ 
2. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/trend-deck-2021-demographics/trend-deck-2021-demographics#doubling-of-global-over-65s-by-2050 
3. Bloomberg 

 
Some pretty gamey scenes from across La Manche this week; a particular favourite image was a couple sitting outside a cafe with a brace of vin rouges, and a car ablaze just a few feet away.

If inequality has seen people flocking to the ramparts, in not unfamilair fashion, over there, Philip contends that the stiff upper lip may be about to quiver over here and that when it blows, we could witness something distinctly unfamiliar and deeply unpleasant.

Despite some of the hideous failings highlighted in the Casey Report, there has not been a breakdown of relations along racial lines such as precipitated the Brixton riots in 1981, and neither has there been a single issue of perceived unfairness such as the Poll Tax. 

However, what we have had is a long period of increasing inequality, and the corrosive effect of events that have left people emotionally and economically worse off; the release of such tension could result in social unrest, the like of which wee have not seen before.

It’s a well-crafted piece from Philip; what was he thinking?

‘This week we look at inequality in a somewhat more oblique way.

France has a history of social unrest that is almost unsurpassed in Europe. By comparison we moan a bit and get on with it. However, both Brexit and Johnson’s 2019 electoral victory were signs that this unrest is gaining a voice.

I have drawn parallels between Sunak and Macron as both are technocrats. Neither has any feeling for the streets or political instincts, they tend to prefer stark truth and reality. Sometimes to be right is to be wrong, sometimes you have to consider political expediency.

Macron’s reforms of pensions without putting it to the vote, shows an absolute belief in what he’s doing, and an equal contempt for others.

Sunak hasn’t yet had to do this in such an obvious way, but his measures are more stealthy, and therefore less controversial until you wake up to the reality of them.

France has Le Pen hovering, waiting for her opportunity. The left, whilst much diminished, could rise up against her. In the UK, we have no left, and little tradition of one. Both countries resemble pressure cookers, however, I fear our could be more extreme as, unlike the French, we have been simmering for years.

What will blow the lid off? Perhaps, this is best answered with another question. How much more poverty can people take?

Lyrically, we start with ‘La Marseillaise’. If ever a tune merited a revolution it is this. We finish with the Style Council and “Paris Match”. Time for a Gitanes, I think. Enjoy!

 
@coldwarsteve
 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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