Heroes: Dinosaurs Discovered in London 

‘Freak scene just can’t believe us 

Why can’t it just be cool and free us?’ 

 
Who would want to be leader of the Conservatives? At best, there is an outwards appearance of unity, but underpinning  this is an unruly mob fighting yesterday’s battles, which seem to revolve around us against Johnny Foreigner. The only thing that keeps them united is the overwhelming need to be in power. It’s their birth right, don’t you know. 

I, like many other commentators, may have underestimated wishy washy Rishi. Maybe he was lucky in his dealings over the NI Protocol, or maybe he is the right person? Only time will tell. 

What is clear is that he inherited a shit-show; war in Ukraine, inflation, higher interest rates, energy price hikes, strikes everywhere, and the NHS is on its knees. And, just when it couldn’t get any worse, there is the unpleasant spectre of Boris Johnson eyeing a return. 

Unlike the deluded Truss, Sunak hasn’t gone for broke, instead he has prioritised specific areas where he might make a difference, such as NI. Of course, it mustn’t be forgotten that he was part of the government which created the problem in the first place. 

Most of what the agreement includes, such as the green and red lanes and the dispute resolution system, had been on the table for years. The issue, as always, was selling it to his own party’s Brexiters, the DUP and the anti-Europe media. 

One of his key insights was the realisation that the DUP had overreached itself at the expense of the UK’s wider economic and political interests, thus weakening their position. This has stopped the DUP  hijacking the launch and mobilising the European Research Group. As a consequence Johnson has been outmanoeuvred. 

It is too early to say that Sunak is becoming the type of leader they Tory’s need, rather than anarchic populists. The protocol deal may yet falter, and the battered economy will remain the electorates focus for the foreseeable future.  

However, it does appear that Sunak is capable of rebuilding at least a part of the reputation for Conservative competence. In addition, it highlights that he is trying to steer the party towards more moderate and pragmatic politics. 

But, politics is still a team game, and you need all the players running in the same direction. Enter stage left a relic, a dinosaur from the past; Boris Johnson, who today said he has ‘mixed feelings’ about NI protocol deal, which is ‘not about UK taking back control’ 
 

‘Johnson defend his Northern Ireland protocol bill, saying it went through the Commons unamended. ‘

 
About Sunak’s protocol renegotiation, he said:  

‘I’m conscious I’m not going to be thanked for saying this, but I think it is my job to do so, we must be clear about what is really going on here. 

This is not about the UK taking back control and although there are easements this is really a version of the solution that was being offered last year to Liz Truss when she was foreign secretary. 

This is the EU graciously unbending to allow us to do what we want to do in our own country, not by our laws, but by theirs.’ 

He continued, saying, ‘I genuinely think it is true that we are now more influential in Europe, about foreign policy, because we’re outside it, outside the EU structure, than we were when we were in.’ 

As I wrote earlier, his ilk just can’t let Brexit go; ‘I will continue to campaign for what I think of as Brexit … because this is nothing if it is not a Brexit government, and Brexit is nothing if we in this country don’t do things differently.’ 

He concluded, saying: 

‘I’m going to find it very difficult to vote for something like this myself, because I believed we should’ve done something very different. No matter how much plaster came off the ceiling in Brussels.’ 

‘I hope that it will work and I also hope that if it doesn’t work we will have the guts to employ that bill again, because I have no doubt at all that that is what brought the EU to negotiate seriously.’ 

So, now we know where Dinosaur Boris stands, however, what we don’t know is what support his view have with fellow Brexiters? 

In recent weeks it appears that their zeal for a fight has diminished. 

Whether this is because they consider Brexit done, a perception that this leader cannot be replaced, or other issues, such as net zero, China, tax, there seems to be a change of attitude. 

In turn, Sunak is positioning himself up as the practical PM, with grown-up policies aimed at getting things done. This has allowed him to ‘get Brexit done’ in a way none of his predecessors managed, and cuts what Brexit ground there was from under Labour’s feet. Now there is no little, or no difference, on how the Tory’s and Labour view Brexit. 
 

‘Sunak is positioning himself up as the practical PM, with grown-up policies aimed at getting things done’

 
Resolving the protocol has other benefits, including re-admittance to the Horizon research programme. Longer term, the normalisation of relations will allow for more effective collaboration across the board, key here is dealing with the war in Ukraine. 

Lastly, there is the electorate. Brexit is no longer a top-10 issue for them, and outside of NI no one cares about the protocol. Sunak has much to gain from being able to focus on the issues that do matter to the electorate, rather than continually waging  war with Brussels. 

If this is the case then we can expect Sunak not to continue with the Brexiters other hobbyhorse, the unwinding of swathes of EU rules. After all, why spend time and energy building trust with the EU now if you plan to squander it all in a few months’ time? 

His next battle is likely to be the forthcoming budget, where a lack of tax cuts will irritate the hard-right. 

Finally, there is a forthcoming election to plan for. Brexit was the issue that united the coalition Johnson assembled in December 2019. Today, polls show that 57% of the electorate favour a closer relationship with the EU. If we assume there is no dividing line between Tory and Labour over Brexit, with both intent on building a collaborative, rather than competitive, relationship with Brussels, can he hold that unlikely coalition together. 

Ultimately, Sunak’s strategy will be judged on his ability to deliver, and his love-in with the EU will have little impact on the state of the UK economy, or the small boats crisis. However, his forthcoming summit with President Macron will now be friendlier than has been the case since 2016.  
 

‘The Windsor framework has avoided a showdown with the EU, neutralised it as an electoral issue and, at least in the short-term, earned the plaudits of most of his colleagues’

 
The Windsor framework has avoided a showdown with the EU, neutralised it as an electoral issue and, at least in the short-term, earned the plaudits of most of his colleagues. 

The problem is Johnson. Sunak’s success only highlights Boris’s shortcoming’s; and that’s me being polite. Rabble rousing, insurrectionist populism should be consigned to history. Sunak is making progress in providing serious  government, now he needs to show he can deliver on the electorates priorities.  

The unknown unknown is will the backbenchers side with common sense, or will the lure of Johnson’s style over substance electioneering be too much for them to overlook? 
 

‘You made me throw it all away, my morals left to decay (terrible lie) 

How many you betray you’ve taken everything (terrible lie)’ 

 
A very welcome second-installment from Philip, and he’s struggling to disguise his admiration, not to mention surprise, that Mr Sunak has apparently ‘delivered Brexit’.

However, a wounded slob can be a dangerous beast, and beware the Ides of March as the budget looms as well as the Local Council Elections. So:

‘Having seen Johnson’s interview comments over NI, I thought it merited a second article.

How this plays out is key to the direction the Tory’s take and therefore that of the country’s.

In my view, if Johnson continues with the “I can’t vote for this” line it’s a direct challenge against Sunak. If he does so and loses he’s finished politically.

Sunak may not win the next election, but, I believe he has a better chance of doing so than Johnson. Brexit is done, whatever the diehards think it’s over, the electorate have moved on. Furthermore, Johnson is discredited, all the shenanigans during lockdown, lies, the failure to deliver levelling-up, or anything remotely like it, are all fresh in people’s memory.

Now is the time for dull, pragmatic, sensible politics.

Lyrically, for a dinosaur we have Dinosaur Junior and “Freak Scene”, to finish we echo Johnson’s litany of broken promises with Nine Inch Nails and Terrible Lie”. Enjoy!’

@coldwarsteve
 https://youtu.be/5eO6up9Gpv0

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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