Heroes, [●] January 2023: Is The Worst Still to Come? 

 

A cheap holiday in other people’s misery! 

 
The opening lyric is for Lady Mone, who is jetting of the Alps for Christmas at an estimated costs of some £6,000 a day. And people wonder why the public sector is on strike. 

So, 2022 is almost over. Other than Lady Mone others also did well, for example, Sam Bankman-Fried. Sam made his fortune on smoke and mirrors, cryptocurrencies, which he was on a moral crusade to legitimise.

Despite this he didn’t deny himself life little luxuries, such as a $40m penthouse in the Bahamas, the supermodels and celebrities roped in to back his business ventures, and the fawning glossy magazine profiles. Unsurprisingly, it’s bust. 

Sam was your average populist, anti-establishment figure, and like, Johnson, Trump, and Musk, he found that 2022 was the year trust in the anti-establishment collapsed. 
 

‘2022 was the year trust in the anti-establishment collapsed’

 
Boris Johnson had quite a year recording a number of notable firsts;  the first PM to be convicted of breaking the law while in office, the first to be the subject of a parliamentary inquiry into whether he lied to the Commons. 

By mid-year with Johnson resigning, albeit after most of his cabinet had resigned, we could have been forgiven for expecting a return to something resembling normality. Instead the serial debauchery of Johnson was followed by the short, but ruinous reign of the mad queen. 
 

‘the serial debauchery of Johnson was followed by the short, but ruinous reign of the mad queen’

 
Liz Truss achieved more in 6-weeks than others in a whole lifetime. She was so dazzled by her own brilliance that she despised stuffy old economic orthodoxy, promising to finally deliver the mythical fruits of the Brexit revolution.  

Truss scoffed at those who said her plans for unfunded tax cuts would accelerate inflation, balloon debt and spook markets. “Project fear”, she sneered, just as Brexiters had done before the EU referendum.  

Instead, all she managed was to prove why we have economic orthodoxy, her mini-budget cost the country C. £20 bn. 

The Tory’s decided she had to go, another individual manifestly unfit for purpose. Tory MPs and activists are quick to wield the knife, perhaps they should be more circumspect when putting their X on the ballot paper. 

What are we left with? Rishi, dull as ditch water and equally useless. 

As this column has written several times recently he is merely a seat warmer. There while Johnson lines his pockets with books and speeches before being wheeled back in to deliver electoral success on the back of more lies and imaginative promises. 
 

‘What are we left with? Rishi, dull as ditch water and equally useless’ 

 
Should Johnson not be available there is always Jeremy Clarkson, whose vile comments in the Sun regarding Megan Markle, might be seen as an early audition.   

In numbers 2020 resembles a Christmas Carol:” six fiscal events, five education secretaries, three prime ministers, two leadership coups, and a drip in charge now. Not to mention more than 30 exits from the cabinet.  

Whereas overseas countries used to be regarded the UK as a bastion of stable and predictable governance, the revolving door that government became made us look more like a banana republic. Financial markets started applying a “moron premium” to the price of lending to Britain. 

All of which made the loss of the Queen more poignant, she was the bastion of stability, representing duty, responsibility and solidity, qualities entirely absent from the country’s government. 
 

‘six fiscal events, five education secretaries, three prime ministers, two leadership coups, and a drip in charge now’

 
No review of the year would be complete with the current generations version of the Winter of Discontent, as trains, post, hospitals, and ambulances ground to a halt. 

Rather than making any attempt to broker solutions the government is playing politics, hoping that years of maladministration will be overlooked and the strikers become scapegoats pilloried for their greed. “Inflation-matching or inflation-busting pay rises are unaffordable … There simply isn’t the money.” Transport secretary, Mark Harper, Sky News, 27 November. 

Unsurprisingly their fawning press were quick to pick-up the baton: “Where is [Rishi Sunak’s] big effort to mobilise the country against these greedy union extremists?” – Douglas Murray, the Sun, 8 December. 

Frankly, this is bollocks;  
 

• in analysis from July, Ashley Kirk sets out Office for National Statistics data that shows real public sector pay has fallen by 4.3% since the 2009 financial crisis.  
• New analysis published by the TUC last week shows that 2022 has been the worst year for real pay growth for almost 50 years. 

 
In addition, pay demands need to be viewed in the context of inflation not as an actual number. For example, an offer to rail workers described as “8%” in a Daily Telegraph headline on 4 December is spread over two years, making it 4% in reality, against the most recent inflation figure of 11.1%. 

In addition, the government constantly stands to one-side, “My role is to facilitate and support – not negotiate.” – Mark Harper, letter to RMT general secretary, Mick Lynch, 29 November 
 

“My role is to facilitate and support – not negotiate.”

 
“The essential discussions have to occur between the rail operating companies, Network Rail and the unions.” – work and pensions secretary Mel Stride, TalkTV, 23 November. 

When it suits them that might be what they prefer, when it doesn’t they are quick to intervene. Last week, the FT reported that employers had planned to offer the RMT a 10% pay rise over two years, only for the government to intervene. The eventual offer was 8% over two years, tied to the introduction of driver-only trains. That was not denied by the Department for Transport, while the FT quotes an “industry figure” as calling the intervention a “clumsy mis-step” that exacerbated the situation. 

Even today the government continues to make mischief; the health secretary, Steve Barclay, has urged the public to “use their common sense” on a “very difficult day”. Steve is, of course, the one who has refused repeatedly to engage in pay negotiations with striking health workers. Had he have done so this could all have been avoided 

Sharon Graham, the leader of the Unite union, suggested the government should be advising people to use their common sense in order to ease pressure on the NHS “365 days a year”. 

“There are 130,000 vacancies in the NHS, there’s 3,000 vacancies within the ambulance service,” she told LBC radio. “It’s like, even in normal play, there [is] strike action happening anyway. We are in a crisis in the NHS. If we do not get around the table and start these negotiations and seriously look at how to retain and recruit staff, we have got a very serious situation – not for one day, but for 365 days a year.” 

Should scapegoating the striker fail there is always immigration, the slam-dunk of people to blame.  

Last week in the House there was the unedifying spectacle of the drippy Rishi trying to prove he wasn’t a drip by picking on those who can’t hit back. This week racists celebrate as the High Court has ruled that “Off-shoring” the problem to Rwanda is legal, bringing Suella Braverman the white Christmas she had dreamed of. 

 And what of the economy? Even the Chancellor thinks it will get worse before it gets better. 
 

‘Even the Chancellor thinks it will get worse before it gets better’

 
GDP for Q3 was 0.3% lower compared to Q2. October’s increase in GDP means that the economy is now 0.4% bigger than it was in February 2020 when the UK started to feel the effects of the global Covid-19 pandemic. Hardly an achievement. 

On the upside, there is some hope that inflation is at – or close to – its peak, which may mean the Bank can limit increases in the cost of borrowing. 

Even house prices, for long our saviour, look rocky. The Halifax predicts that house prices will fall by about 8% in 2023. 

“Following such rapid house price growth, and the growing economic headwinds, a slowdown was almost inevitable,” said Andrew Asaam, a homes’ director at Halifax. “As the increasing cost of living puts more pressure on household finances and rising interest rates impact customers’ monthly mortgage payments, there’s understandably more caution among both buyers and sellers, which has seen demand soften as people take stock.” 

As we close this review it is time to reflect; one key thought is that the public sector is an unwanted nuisance as far as Tory’s are concerned. It has become the victim of an undeclared pay policy, keeping public sector wages under continuous downward pressure.  
 

‘The Halifax predicts that house prices will fall by about 8% in 2023’

 
Nurses are castigated for striking for an inflation increase plus 5%, which is seen as ”unreasonable”. The simple fact is that even it was forthcoming, their starting salaries would, in real terms, be lower than in 2010.  

Since 2015 we have seen the beginning of an unbridgeable gap between private and public sector incomes.  

In September, private sector pay in real terms (including bonuses) had grown cumulatively 5.5% since 2010, while in the public sector it had declined by 5.9%, with nearly half of that gulf opening up since January 2021. The government’s projected cash increases for wages have been eaten away by far higher than expected inflation.  

Central to this is terrible productivity calamity, exacerbated in the public sector by even lower levels of investment than in the private sector.  

Since 2010, British capital spending on healthcare has consistently been the lowest of nine comparable European countries, plus the US and Canada:

 
 

• our stock of MRI and CT scanners per million people is the lowest, as are beds per 1,000 people. 
• Post-Covid, one in seven of those hospital beds is occupied by a patient who could be discharged, but lack of care home capacity and social and community care has meant they are blocked in hospital.  

• Since 2019, the NHS is treating 12% fewer people from waiting lists and 14% fewer emergency admissions.  

 
All of this is the results of government policy decisions. 

Looking forward, where does this leave us? I have long warned about the rise of hard-right politicians and see no indicators that show anything different. 

The latest Opinium poll for the Observer shows support for Reform, the successor to the Brexit party, is up to 8% of the vote, and increase of 2-points and almost neck-and-neck with the Lib Dems. The poll also found that a fifth of voters (19%) are considering voting for Reform. This includes 23% of 2019 Conservative voters and 11% of 2019 Labour voters. 

There seems to be concerns from these voters after the recent tax-raising budget, as well as Brexit and immigration.  
 

“I want them destroyed. They have ruined our economy”

 
Richard Tice, the current Reform leader, told the Observer the Tories had “betrayed the country” including over Brexit. “I want the Tories out. “I want them destroyed. They have ruined our economy. People are underestimating us. They don’t believe we will stand in 630 seats. I have already got 600.” 

Quite how this plays out is be unclear. Previously, I have put forward the scenario of some form of hard-right electoral pact between the right of the Tory party and Reform. Presumably, they would run the nightmare “dream ticket” of Farage and Johnson. 

If those does come to pass, I am considering going into people smuggling to help all those who will want to leave! 

Before we finish a final Brexit lie for the year. The UK Statistics Authority has reprimanded the Conservatives for claiming the UK had secured £800bn in “new free trade deals” since leaving the EU, saying the figure includes deals rolled over from before Brexit. They were also warned to show sources for any data they produced. 

Following is some data on exports that has been sourced: 
 

• The UK has recorded a trade deficit in goods every year since 1983. 
• The UK’s share of global exports has generally declined over time – from around 11% in 1948 (though this figure covers exports of goods only) to around 3% in 2019 (this figure covers exports of goods and services). 

 
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8261/CBP-8261.pdf 
 

“It’ll be cold, so cold, without you to hold 

This Christmas” 

 
We’ve been eagerly awaiting the first of Philip’s new column – ‘Heroes’; whilst hoping, we weren’t expecting a great deal this side of the holidays – possibly an amuse bouche, gently easing us into the column in the New Year.

Yeah, right; not really his style. So, here it is, a Review of the Year 2022 that hits you right between the eyes.

Those anticipating a slightly more benign, conciliatory tone will be quickly disavowed of any such thoughts; with a Berlin Wall theme to both the title of the column and the first track, Philip’s straight into Michelle Mone before weaving in FTX which contrives to continue a ‘bust’ theme.

It’s angry stuff, made all the more exasperating becasue everything he describes has been played out in plain sight; there really is no shame, and they really don’t GAF what you think.

Unfortunately, the backdrop is unremittingly gloomy – and that is even being noticed across the Pond – ‘Spiraling costs and crumbling public services leave millions in Britain struggling to live’

So, what was Philip thinking?

A final piece before the break, and the debut of “Heroes”.

I didn’t bother messing around trying to find positives from 2022. There might be a few around the edges, but overall it was a fiasco.

We are a third-world country, nothing works, we suffer chronic under-investment in all areas. The government is populated by political pygmies all appearing to be more useless than the last.

As a government they govern only when it suits them. Leaders, please. Leaderless. We went from a lying misogynist, to a dangerously deluded lunatic, and ended-up with an unelected drip who’s biggest achievement to date seems to be choosing a wife.

On the subject of wife’s, we have the Royals. Her Maj sadly passed away, a departure that showed just how much she is missed. Charles, nice fella. The boys, I will pass on that one.

Brexit continues to disappoint in every which way possible.

Culture wars predominate, with immigration to the fore. I read that those of us who work from home are the latest victims of this small-town sensitivity.

2023, what is there to say? It’s so bad it won’t be right by 2033. And, just when I thought it couldn’t get worse, my doom and gloom pessimism of a hard-right government is resurrected.

We don’t need off-shoring, another year like this and no one will want to come!

Lyrically, we start with the Sex Pistol’s and “Holidays in the Sun,” especially for Lady Mone, who was photographed departing for her £6,000 a night Alpine break, replete with a £30,000 handbag.

As it’s Christmas I thought I would get into the spirit of things, therefore we finish the year on all-time low with Muds “Lonely This Christmas”. Sadly, for too many it will be lonely and cold. If only we had a government! Enjoy!

@coldwarsteve

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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