Gold at Record High: Expert predicts $5,000 an ounce

Gold near record highs on Fed rate cut bets – deVere predicts $5,000 by end of Q1 2026 

Gold traded just $23 short of its all-time high on Monday as investors positioned for fresh US rate cuts and a weaker dollar.

Against this backdrop, global financial advisory giant deVere Group predicts the metal could climb to $5,000 per ounce before the end of the first quarter of 2026.

“Gold’s proximity to record highs underlines the direction of travel,” says Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group.

“We expect that sustained demand, falling real yields, and fiscal and geopolitical strains will propel gold to $5,000 by the end of Q1 2026. The conditions are already in place, and momentum is building.”

Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,477.56 per ounce by mid-morning on Monday, its strongest since April when it briefly crossed $3,500. Futures followed the move, while silver rallied above $40 for the first time since 2011.

The dollar index weakened to its lowest level in over a month, adding support by making dollar-priced bullion more attractive to overseas buyers.

“Gold traditionally benefits in a low-rate environment, and we predict cuts from the Federal Reserve this month,” he explains.

“Every cut reduces the appeal of cash and bonds. Combined with ongoing inflation, heavy government borrowing, and geopolitical uncertainty, this strengthens gold’s case.”

Central banks are a major driver. The People’s Bank of China has continued to buy bullion month after month, while others across Asia and the Middle East are expanding reserves at the fastest sustained pace in decades. “

We forecast this accumulation will continue as governments look to diversify away from the dollar and build independence into their balance sheets.

“Gold requires no promises and no permissions—qualities highly valued in today’s fractured system,” says Nigel Green.

On the supply side, constraints remain. Mining output has stagnated, new discoveries are rare, and environmental and cost pressures are limiting future growth.

“When strong sovereign demand meets flat supply, the long-term trajectory, in our view, is higher,” Nigel Green notes.

Private investors are also reshaping portfolios. Sovereign mints are recording healthy sales, ETFs are reporting inflows, and institutional allocators are increasing allocations. “We predict that this realignment will accelerate as more investors treat gold as a primary holding, not just a hedge,” he comments.

Markets are watching closely for Friday’s US jobs report, which is expected to reinforce the case for rate cuts from September.

“If growth weakens further, the Fed will cut,” says Nigel Green.

“We expect this will be another catalyst for gold to move firmly above record levels and set the stage for $5,000.”

Trade policy uncertainty is likely to add further support. President Donald Trump’s administration is continuing talks with partners despite a US court ruling against tariffs, maintaining an atmosphere of unpredictability.

“We forecast that ongoing trade frictions, fiscal pressures, and geopolitical rivalries will encourage both public and private investors to increase their exposure to politically neutral, globally recognised assets like gold,” explains the deVere CEO.

 What matters most, deVere believes, is how investor psychology has shifted. Levels once seen as ceilings are now viewed as floors.

“Momentum is self-reinforcing,” Nigel Green adds. “Each time gold climbs higher, more capital enters, creating confirmation of trend. This cycle is likely to accelerate the move to $5,000.”

Nigel Green concludes: “In our view, gold is reflecting the reality of today’s economy—high debt, unstable currencies, and structural inflation.

“Most investors are no longer debating whether they should hold it. The question now is how much exposure they want.”

Gold at Record High: Rally Enters the Next Round?

Max Wienke, market analyst at eToro says: “The gold price surged overnight to a new record high of over $3,508. However, buyers gave up part of their gains during the day. In recent sessions, strong bullish momentum had already built up. Gold is now rising for the fifth consecutive day and has gained around 30% since the beginning of the year.

“As shown by the latest eToro Retail Investor Beat, for the second quarter, 32% of British investors invest in commodities such as gold or oil. 7% plan to increase their exposure indicating an increased interest in gold as a safe bet.

“The main reason the Fed is likely to cut rates in September is the weakening US labour market. That’s why Friday’s jobs report is of particular importance. Weaker numbers could further fuel the gold rally, as they would support expectations of more and faster rate cuts. However, the Fed may act more cautiously after the September meeting as long as it remains unclear how tariffs will impact inflation. Persistent price pressures could delay rate cuts.

“Political pressure adds further uncertainty. Investors fear the independence of the central bank could be at risk, as Trump repeatedly tries to exert influence.

“Expectations of rate cuts could put pressure on the dollar and bond yields – an ideal environment for precious metals. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers in other currencies, while lower yields reduce competition from government bonds. All in all, the environment remains favourable for gold.”

Comment: Gold hits $3,500 record as dollar weakens

Russell Shor, Senior Market Analyst at Tradu.com, commented:

“Gold’s surge above $3,500 captures a broader market shift. The dollar’s weakness has reignited gold’s role as a store of value, reinforced by Powell’s Jackson Hole speech that signalled looming rate cuts. Political uncertainty, from challenges to Fed independence to tariff battles, has deepened concerns over the greenback’s standing. Investor flows confirm the move, with ETFs and central banks steadily increasing their holdings. This rally is not only about price gains, it underlines how confidence is being redirected toward gold in a changing financial landscape.”