‘And now is the time to realize, to have real eyes’ 1

 

Some weeks ago, when I changed the name of the column, I said there was a wider picture that I wanted to explore.

The title, also the title of song from 1981, was chosen deliberately as I feared that Brexit was dragging the country, unwittingly, towards a hard-right neo-Fascist government. The difference this time being that we now have more acceptable terms, such as Nationalism, Populism.

This is indeed the time to realise and have real eyes…………

When we consider the political spectrum, although there are 3-parties fighting for support amid the Brexit turmoil and expected upcoming election, there is, in reality, only two; the government and the opposition.

‘dragging the country, unwittingly, towards a hard-right neo-Fascist government’

Let’s begin with the government, the Conservatives have more splits than a James Brown dance routine; factions supporting, No Deal, A negotiated deal, a second referendum, and remain.

We have two broad churches within the party, Little Britain represented by Boris and his coterie of last-chance saloon gamblers, and One Nation Tories (‘ONT’). It is difficult to say who is in this category, certainly the 23 rebels, and who know how many others will finally raise their heads above the parapet.

Boris’s coterie isn’t having a good time, they have lost 6 votes, lost control of parliament, their proroguing of the House for 5-weeks may be illegal, and numerous senior members of cabinet and party have rebelled.

Undeterred Dominic Raab, who, to me, always looks ready for a fight, has said Tory rebels kicked out of the party for backing a Brexit delay carried out an ‘act of vandalism’ against democracy as he admitted there was likely to be a court challenge to legislation that holds up the UK leaving the EU.

The foreign secretary praised his party’s whips for restoring discipline and said the 21 MPs had known the consequences when they voted against the government to ‘hand control’ of parliament to the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn.

On top of that, veteran Eurosceptics and xenophobes such as Iain Duncan-Smith have been encouraging the PM to defy Parliament and the law, to become a martyr and face prison.

‘encouraging the PM to defy Parliament and the law, to become a martyr and face prison’

Iain, if it’s such a good deal why don’t you do it? Sounds to me like the evil Jihadis telling the suicide bombers that they will have a wonderful afterlife and an abundance of virgins.

On top of this we have Cummings, the governments ‘top-adviser’; I was momentarily speechless last weekend when I turned on the news to hear that Cummings ‘had knocked over England’s top-2’.

Wow, I thought, he’s done for Boris and Gove – it turned out to be Pat Cummings the Aussie quick bowler knocking over England’s openers.

This is the Cummings who was sanctioned in March this year for failing to appear before the digital, culture, media and sport committee’s inquiry into fake news. MPs on the Commons committee of privileges found that his refusal to give oral evidence constituted a significant interference in the work of the inquiry.

Damian Collins, chair of the media committee, said at that time that Cummings had shown a ‘total disregard’ for the authority of parliament and called for statutory powers to ‘reassert the authority that is missing’.

‘Cummings had shown a ‘total disregard’ for the authority of parliament’

The ONT faction has been strengthened by the return of Amber Rudd who, readers might remember, I has previously regarded as a beacon of light and hope.

I christened her ‘30-pieces of silver’ because she seemingly has no loyalty, she bounced from a negotiated deal to No Deal, although she insists Boris assured her that wouldn’t happen, and was given a cabinet role, and now she has bounced back again!

How effective ONT came be within the party in the immediate future is debatable. It would seem inconceivable for them to stand as Tories at an election. Do they stand as independents and join the ‘Others’ (see below), or just join the ‘Others’?

The official opposition, Labour, has benefitted from its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, waking up in recent weeks. However, they appear divided, listening to them they seem to have more Brexit policies than there are sides to a 50p coin. The government is ‘united’ around No Deal, Labour appears not to know which way to turn.

Last, and by no means least, we have the Others (Lib Dems, Scots / Welsh Nationalists, Greens), here the picture is much clearer, Remain. Expect the SNP to sweep all before them in Scotland but little else.

My concern is that, in an electoral alliance with the Brexit Party, Boris’s hardliners will win a majority, however small, enabling them to overturn recent legislation and return to No Deal. To thwart him the opposition, which has to include ONT’s, must unite; they have shown they can do it for a week in Parliament, but this is the big one!

Boris and Co. have nowhere to turn, they are fighting for their political lives, as I wrote previously, like the Nazis in 1944 they have no option but to fight on. The government will seek to caste the election as a choice between ‘people and parliament’, even if that means the sacrifice of more of his party’s reputation with moderate voters.

‘Boris and Co. have nowhere to turn, they are fighting for their political lives’

Moderate Tory voters will likely swing to the Lib Dems, as the party has morphed into a version of the Brexit party, which could cost them seats, Scotland, London and the south. These are the inevitable consequences of the governments ‘whatever it takes’ strategy.

To win, the government needs to recreate the coalition of voters that delivered ‘Leave’ in the referendum and hope that this translates into a parliamentary majority for a No Deal Brexit.

For this gamble to succeed Boris needs to avoid grovelling to the EU for an extension. If he is forced to do this, he will struggle to maintain credibility with pro-Brexit voters.

His options aren’t great; breaking the law would land him in the courts, asking for an extension while protesting that he has been forced into it by parliament would turn him into a pathetic puppet PM.

But what worries me the most, and what I find so sinister is how the hard-right are rallying around, coming out of the woodwork buoyed by a new found confidence that this is their time, and that in Boris they have a leader.

Last Saturday, far-right thugs at a demonstration in Westminster lunged at Remain and left-wing activists as they chanted, ‘We’ve got a lamppost just for you’ and, ‘We love you, Boris’.

Jailed fraudster Tommy Robinson has declared, ‘We back Boris’, commending him for taking on Tory rebels and Labour ‘traitors’. Another of his key allies has promoted a video clip featuring Johnson with his thumbs up, captioned ‘The people’s prime minister’ and ‘Parliament vs the People’ and accompanied by a football stadium-style chant of ‘Boris for England!’

 

‘They smelt of pubs, and wormwood scrubs, And too many right wing meetings’ 2

 

These are the ‘shock troops of Brexit’. The media must stop describing them as ‘pro-Brexit activists’, it legitimises their behaviour and is an insult to many Leave voters.

The murderer of Jo Cox shouted ‘Death to traitors, freedom for Britain’, but, rather than condemning thugs such as him, much of the media talks about ‘saboteurs’ needing to be crushed and ‘enemies of the people’,

Boris and Co. know that there is an emboldened far-right movement who are ‘encouraged by the language of betrayal’.

The far-right has always employed ‘stab in the back’ narrative, focussing on domestic subversion and treachery. Theresa May’s failed promises of ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ and Brexit by 29 March has fuelled this generation of extremists. History should serve as a warning to the PM, playing with fire can be very dangerous.

‘a warning to the PM, playing with fire can be very dangerous’

To fight this far-right alliance, the opposition needs to be united. The forthcoming elections are fast becoming a democratic showdown, one that could deliver on of the worst of the current nationalist governments worldwide, or it could be the point at which democracy fights back.

To put this in perspective, populism in the US, whilst deeply unpleasant, isn’t likely to lead to the break-up of the country it claims to be saving. It isn’t an overstatement to claim that the outcome of a No Deal Brexit could be the break-up of the UK, I would be in favour of London being devolved from the rest of the country.

The UK is one of world’s oldest democracies, and the Conservative party was a centre-right broad church for at least a century.

Now it has become the ‘Revolutionary Conservative’ party, purging 21 MPs, all of whom are more entitled to call themselves Conservatives than Johnson.’ In place of embarrassment or apologies we get vituperative defiance; ‘The people will never forgive the remain plotters if they don’t back down,’ said Jacob Rees-Mogg.

‘people keep talking about the war, standing alone, this is no different’

Britain was the standalone country that defied Nazi Germany and, in the 1930s, when others country’s such as Italy, Spain, and Portugal turned to Fascism, the British people stood up to be counted and denied the British Union of Fascists (‘BUF’). It should be remembered that much of the popular press, led by the Daily Mail, were big supporters of Moseley and the BUF, the Battle of Cable St was the turning point.

I am not advocating turning to the barricades, but the rise of the right must be stopped. If the government and Brexit party enter an alliance, they will have a clear No Deal policy, the opposition must also have a clear single objective. To win this election will require unprecedented cooperation between the opposition parties, and skill on the part of voters, identifying the candidate to back in each constituency.

Even if the opposition parties can achieve a majority, they still need to keep it together to legislate for a second referendum, which then needs to be won. Even then there is the task of showing those who in 2016 voted for Brexit, often for economic or cultural reasons little related to the EU, that we have heard their concerns and that they will be addressed.

This is the challenge, people keep talking about the war, standing alone, this is no different; what happens is the next 6-months will shape how we live and prosper for the foreseeable future.

 

‘Kick over the wall ’cause government’s to fall, How can you refuse it? Let fury have the hour, anger can be power, Do you know that you can use it?’ 3

 

OK lyric spotters – an absolute treat this week, and I’m pleased to report that I managed to trouble the scorer again.

But the real joy is that I’ve been reunited with one track that had sneaked away from my consciousness, but was immediately remembered, and even better than tunes reunited, I’ve discovered a track from one of the best, that had somehow passed me by – and its a corker.

1 sees the return of those naughty boys the Sex Pistols with the excellent ‘I Wanna Be Me’.

Next up 2 its an absolute fave – The Jam with the haunting ‘Down in the Tube Station at Midnight’.

Last but no means least an absolute hidden (from me) gem – wallow in the splendour of The Clash with ‘Clampdown’; mark your scorecards and apply for your prizes in the usual way – and then revisit them to see just how apposite they are in the context of what’s going on. And then just enjoy them! 

 

 

 

Philip Gilbert 2Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

 

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