Brexit Bulletin: Being dead in a ditch inches closer

 

‘There’s something dead inside my hole….’ ¹

 

Remember the date, 6^th September 2019, the PM said, ‘I’d rather die in a ditch than ask for Brexit delay’. Careful what you wish for Boris!

And the ditch does beckon, with the breakdown (collapse might be more accurate) in talks between the UK and other EU countries. A bad situation was exacerbated when a No 10 source said the German chancellor’s demands for Northern Ireland to remain in a customs union made a deal look ‘essentially impossible, not just now but ever’.

Not surprisingly the empire struck back with Donald Tusk, the European council president, who tweeted: ‘What’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. At stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people. You don’t want a deal, you don’t want an extension, you don’t want to revoke. Quo vadis? [Where are you going?]’

‘You don’t want a deal, you don’t want an extension, you don’t want to revoke. Quo vadis?’

The big, and possibly overlooked story, is the leaked memo from a Downing Street source suggesting Britain would refuse to work with EU countries who accept a delay to article 50.

This provoked the former cabinet minister, Amber Rudd, now an independent MP to say the government should be ‘ashamed’.  Rudd believes the note, which was not denied by N0 10, came from Johnson’s powerful adviser Dominic Cummings.

What is interesting is it appears to reveal the government’s strategy, which, rather than seeking a deal seems determined to create confrontation, designed perhaps to have the EU refuse any extension, for example the note sets out:

 

• how the government plans to ‘scupper’ the Benn act that blocks no deal,
• threatens that the duty to cooperate with the EU will be ‘down the toilet’ if there is a delay
• points clearly to the increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit.
• It reveals that there doesn’t appear to be an actual plan at all.
• begging the EU not to support a delay that will be required because of the decision that parliament has taken

 

The note appears to set-out the government’s view on several matters:

 

• Anyone supporting delay will be seen by this government as hostile interference in domestic politics, and over half of the public will agree with us.
• They do not plan to keep going back with new proposals. Their plan is still to leave with no deal on 31st October or there will be an election which, should they win, will enable No Deal.
• Anyone supporting delay will face the consequences of interfering in domestic politics. This seemingly included colluding with parliament that was described as being ‘as popular as the clap.’
• Non-cooperation with the EU in the event of a delay, areas such as defence and security were highlighted.

 

In short confrontation; confrontation with the EU, with Parliament, with anyone who doesn’t support a No Deal Brexit. No Deal at any cost, and at the expense of anyone and anything.

However, such jingoistic pessimism might now be consigned to the bin as, last evening it was reported that Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar have agreed there is a ‘pathway to a possible Brexit deal’, after more than three hours of private talks.

‘Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar have agreed there is a ‘pathway to a possible Brexit deal’’

The pair issued a positive joint statement, although Varadkar said afterwards that while he believed the outline of a deal would be possible in time for the crunch summit of EU leaders next week, serious challenges remained and there was ‘many a slip between cup and lip’.

However, as any agreement they might strike will, inevitably, require compromise on both sides, we must consider the very real issues that this may not meet with parliamentary approval.

On the Remain side it is likely that minority parties will vote against a deal, as is likely to be the case with Leavers who see only No Deal as the chosen path.

I can find no better way to summarise the NO Deal position than to quote Nigel Farage; ‘No British Government could ever accept Germany telling us that part of the UK has to stay in the EU.   The choice now is clear: A clean break Brexit, or stay in a new militarised empire. Time to choose freedom’.

At this point the audience begins singing Vera Lynn songs and a squadrons of Spitfires do victory rolls overhead. A more accurate song might be….

 

‘They say immigrants steal the hubcaps Of the respected gentlemen, They say it would be wine an’ roses If England were for Englishmen again’ ²

 

I was, at this point, going to question whether the PM wished to find a negotiated solution, or was all of this provocation designed for rejection, setting the Europeans up as the Brexit bad guys in an election?

There is so much smoke and mirrors now that it is almost impossible to know. All I will say is that whilst the Tory party is in thrall to right-wing revolutionaries, and advised by Dominic Cummings, both consumed by single-minded fanaticism, we are on a collision course with Europe

‘we are on a collision course with Europe’

If there is no breakthrough in talks, it will be interesting to see how the Tories deal with the fall-out. The law obliges the government to seek an extension to Article 50 in the absence of a deal. Quite how they will try and spin this in order to spare Johnson the shame of breaking his ‘do or die’ pledge is unclear, as is the potential impact be on voters’ intentions at a forthcoming election?

There is a sickening inevitability about the use of metaphors recalling the war, perhaps Dunkirk, with the forces of Brexit lined up against Parliament much of the electorate and a foreign aggressor. Whoever owns Vera Lynn’s back catalogue will be making a fortune!

It is this morbid obsession with war and empire, all former glories, that are at the route of the country’s problems. Too many people are routed in the past, revisionists, who fail to see our current standing in the world. Perhaps we should be renaming the country, for example the United Kingdom is really a disunited Kingdom, Great Britain might be more accurately described as once great Britain.

When anyone asks me where I come from, I tell them London.

‘It is this morbid obsession with war and empire, all former glories, that are at the route of the country’s problems’

The world changed many years ago, perhaps these changes were best encapsulated in the term, ‘the Global Village’, originated by Marshall McLuhan, a Canadian philosopher in the 1960’s to indicate ‘One Market Under God’. That term is more accurate today than it was then.

The Global Village, Globalisation, made the world ‘tiny’, it has bought many successes and caused many issues, the wealth gap, and the environmental damage being but two.

The wealth gap may have caused many voters to support Brexit in protest at, what they were led to believe, was causing their suffering, namely immigration, but Brexit in itself will not help them, it is more likely to make their problems worse.

Brexit is the policy of little Englanders who cannot, or will not, see our place in the world order. The world has shrunk because of connectivity, London thrives because of immigration, allowing it to attract some of the best pools of talent from around the globe.

Whilst London was the place where merchants using British capital did the worlds business, London has become a place where the world’s merchants and capital come to do business.

Everywhere in the UK there are foreign-owned enterprises, many of them nationalised industries; they make cars, provide infrastructure and run train services from overseas. They no longer ‘require’ a political party as was the case with business and the Tory party for years, and most are anti-Brexit.

‘Simply wallowing in extended versions of ‘Last Night of the Proms’ and referencing the war changes nothing!’

None of the business sectors, agriculture, industry, and services want Brexit, let alone No-Deal. The  government is out-of-touch with the dynamics of global capitalism, driven by a single ideology, Brexit, and cannot or will not see beyond it.

The capitalists who support Brexit have loose ties to the British economy; Sir James Dyson no longer produces in the UK, the owners of several Brexiter newspapers are foreign, or tax resident abroad, as is the pro-Brexit billionaire Sir James Ratcliffe of Ineos. The traditional connection between capital and the Tory party is fast becoming a disconnection.

There are so many questions triggered by Brexit: can a solution be found? Can a government be formed that can deliver this and reunite the people? Do we want to reunite the people, or should we go our separate ways?

‘the fact we are all subject to it is irrelevant, the US isn’t above the law, it is the law’

I remember the dark days of the 1970s, things were so bad by the end of the decade that people readily accepted the need for radical change. I have no wish to debate the rights and wrongs of Thatcherism, but she was brave enough, or stubborn enough, to make the tough choices that were required in a country that had stagnated and was wallowing in self-pity. The issues might be different this time as are the necessary solutions, but to move forward the country needs to find a leader who tells us the truth.

Like all problems, until you admit them you cannot begin to fix them. Simply wallowing in extended versions of ‘Last Night of the Proms’ and referencing the war changes nothing!

In summary, if we ever needed a true picture of our standing in the world it was delivered this week by our ‘special’ ally, the US. In case anyone missed it, Anne Sacoolas, the wife of a US diplomat stationed in the UK, fled back to the US after driving on the wrong side of the road and killing a teenager, pleading diplomatic immunity.

Boris raised this with Trump who, whilst expressing his sympathy said, ‘The woman was driving on the wrong side of the road. That can happen, those are the opposite side of the road. I won’t say it ever happened to me, but it but it did.’

Ultimately, it was waved away, Trump said officials would speak to the woman and ‘see what we can come up with’.  He can do this because, to the US, we don’t matter, their priority is protecting their own, the rule of law and the fact we are all subject to it is irrelevant, the US isn’t above the law, it is the law.

 

‘Those kilometers and the red lights, I was always looking left and right’ ³

 

OK lyric spotters – it’s all getting serious at the business end of the process, now that it is almost certain that we will definitely either leave on October 31st, or not.

By way of an homage to the fact that either a deal or no-deal are almost certain to lead to a general election, or a second referendum, Philip has come up with some deuced difficult blighters this week.

I guess every question you don’t know the answer to is difficult, but I can confirm that I didn’t trouble the scorer this week – if you are lucky, or smug, enough to do so, with three lyrics we return to the traditional scoring protocol with points redeemed in the normal way – by 12 noon on Monday please.

So, first up ¹ is one of the author’s faves – I have to say the lyric itself rendered me a little queasy, but lap up The Jesus and Mary Chain and ‘In a Hole’.

Next off the rank ² is a belter brought up to date with some footage of Engerland’s finest celebrating their ‘victory’ in 2016 – its The Clash and ‘Something About England’. There’s quite some thought goes into these you know, and apparently there is no truth in the rumour that the boys are going to launch a flexidisc version of Farageland.

Well, blow me, the Thin White Duke has made it in again, and this time ³ he’s sneaked ‘Always Crashing in the Same Car’ – well, quite: enjoy!

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

 

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