Beginning to See the Light; Walls Come Tumbling Down

‘Governments crack and systems fall,
‘Cause unity is powerful,
Lights go out, walls come tumbling down,’

Yet again my plans for an article are usurped by a PM determined to play fast and loose with our lives and livelihoods. This time due to the Indian variant of C-19 which has led to a 75% increase in cases over the last week.

Speaking on Monday, the day indoor hospitality recommenced, Matt Hancock told MPs that 2,323 cases of the variant known as B.1.617.2 had been confirmed, up from 1,313 on Thursday, with 483 of those in Bolton and Blackburn. There are now 86 local authorities with five or more confirmed cases.

The University of Warwick models indicate that if it is 40% more transmissable, that would mean 6,000 hospitalisations a day – above the second wave’s peak. The health secretary, Matt Hancock, warned that this new variant transmits faster and could spread ‘like wildfire’ among the unvaccinated. Déjà vu again!

‘a PM determined to play fast and loose with our lives and livelihoods’

Increasingly people are asking why the government hasn’t closed our borders. Dominic Cummings, the PM’s former chief adviser, joined the criticism on Monday, calling the UK’s border policy a ‘joke’.

A central tenet of Johnson’s government has been his Brexit pledge of ‘take back control of our borders’. All this has meant is that EU builders, carers and farm workers are excluded whilst the border is wide open to places running hot with Covid.

The Sunday Times estimates that at least 20,000 passengers from India entered the UK while Johnson delayed imposing a travel ban because he didn’t want to upset the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, while negotiating a trade deal. This is at a time when other countries such as New Zealand and Hong Kong completely stopped all flights.

There are the same contradictions for Britons trying to holiday overseas. As Prof Martin McKee, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, says, ‘Why Portugal? It might be OK if people only met Portuguese- and British-vaccinated people – but they’ll mix with others from France, Italy and Spain, mixing at airports, waiting in queues.’

Johnson is a man who craves popularity, and his policy on the borders is at odds with the public who put safety above foreign holidays:

• Ipsos Mori finds 79% of Britons are alarmed at Covid-19 variants coming into the UK,
• With 67% wanting to stop variants spreading by barring arrivals to the UK from any foreign country.
• 42% support introducing another national lockdown if needed.

No mention of C-19 would be complete without mention of Johnson’s own near-death experience with the virus. Who can forget his heartfelt comments about the nurses who looked after him; ‘I have seen the personal courage not just of the doctors and nurses but of everyone, the cleaners, the cooks, the health care workers of every description – physios, radiographers, pharmacists – who have kept coming to work, kept putting themselves in harm’s way, kept risking this deadly virus. It is thanks to that courage, that devotion, that duty and that love that our NHS has been unbeatable’.

Of course, Johnson was quick to show his gratitude showering nurses with a 1% pay rise, which, adjusted for inflation, is a pay cut.

Given such shabby treatment it is no surprise that Jenny McGee, one of the nurses who cared for Johnson has handed in her resignation citing her disillusionment with the ‘lack of respect’ shown by the government for the NHS and healthcare workers. She was also critical of the government’s handling of the crisis: ‘Lots of nurses felt that the government hadn’t led very effectively – the indecisiveness, so many mixed messages. It was just very upsetting.’

Photographs of Johnson hosting her and a colleague in the garden of Downing Street in July were subsequently released by No 10 as the NHS marked 72 years. McGee, said she had been asked but declined to take part in a ‘clap for carers’’ at the event.

‘It would have been a really good photo opportunity. You know, kind of like Boris and his NHS friends, but I wanted to stay out of it. Lots of nurses felt that the government hadn’t led very effectively, the indecisiveness, so many mixed messages. It was just very upsetting. Yes, we have put ourselves on the line and we have worked so incredibly hard, and there’s a lot of talk about how we’re all heroes and all that sort of stuff. But at the same time, I’m just not sure if I can do it. I don’t know how much more I’ve got to give to the NHS.’

‘I’m just not sure if I can do it. I don’t know how much more I’ve got to give to the NHS’

McGee recalled the situation leading up to Christmas last year – a period when the government was coming under heavy criticism for not acting sooner to impose new restrictions – saying, ‘This time there was more than the first surge. The nurses are stretched even more. An absolute shitshow to be honest. At that point, I don’t know how to describe the horrendousness of what we were going through. We were desperate.’

Despite the government consistent inability to deal with C-19, and the profusion of sleaze and cronyism that surrounds them, their popularity show no signs of abating.

However, what needs to be asked is, what is the cost of this success?

As the column has continued to highlight this success is being achieved by a Tory party that has far more in common with Populism and would be unrecognisable to traditional Tory’s. In fact, it is more than unrecognisable to traditional Tory’s it is alienating many of them, too.

Brexit bought forth manifest issues that have been bubbling under in this country for many years. There was talk of those ‘left behind’ being the catalyst for the ‘Leave’ vote, and it was assumed that they had been left behind economically. As this column explored last week, many were ‘affluent’, owning their own homes and fully superannuated. If they had been left behind it was socially; the progressive, multi-cultural, liberal society wasn’t to their taste.

‘many were ‘affluent’, owning their own homes and fully superannuated. If they had been left behind it was socially’

Whilst these people had traditionally voted Labour, they were socially conservative (please note the use of the small ‘c’) and had become alienated from the progressive liberal politics of the post-Thatcher era. These are regressive people, bigoted in their opinion, afraid of change, and easily seduced by bar-room politicians such as Farage and Trump. Johnson has exploited this by stoking the ‘culture wars’ and promising to level-up.

In doing this he has demolished the so-called ‘red wall’ in the north and midlands, but in doing so, he is destroying the foundations of the ‘blue wall’ in the south. Towns such as Chipping Norton and its environs, traditionally Tory, famed as the haunts of former PM David Cameron, along with his set of wealthy, powerful media, and political allies, are shunning the Tories. Chipping Norton, along with nine others in Oxfordshire, has rejected the Conservatives. The town now has 3-Labour district councillors and 11 out of the 16 town councillors.

‘he is destroying the foundations of the ‘blue wall’ in the south’

In their place is a rainbow, progressive coalition of Liberal Democrats, Labour, and the Greens. We can add to this the alliance of non-Tory councillors last week took power in Cambridgeshire after the Conservatives lost control of the county – as well as losing the mayoral contest to Labour. Also, there was a breach in the ‘blue wall’ as the Tories lost their majority over Tunbridge Wells borough council for the first time in over 20-years.

And these aren’t isolated incidents:

• Surrey: the Conservatives lost 14 county council seats,
• Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire, and West Sussex all saw swings away from the Tories,
• Labour triumphed in the mayoral contest that spanned Bristol, Bath and South Gloucestershire,
• There were wins for the Green party in East Sussex, Gloucestershire, Suffolk, and Kent.

This shift has gone unnoticed compared to virtual disintegration of the ‘red wall’, but this could be as troublesome for the Tories as it has proved for Labour. Both reflect the breakdown of traditional, class-based voting patterns since the EU referendum.

As Professor Rob Ford of Manchester University said, ‘The Conservatives risk falling into the same trap that New Labour did when it won in the south. You get so excited about your advance in terrain that’s unfamiliar that you lose touch with your traditional heartlands. If the loyalties of Tory voters are stretched to breaking point, then it could get quite dramatic.’

Labour is finding support among unionised workers, mostly in the public sector, and increasingly professionals too. Many of the cottages that used to be for tweed mill workers 100-years ago are now home to university professors.

Voters that were once regarded as conservative with a big and small ‘C’ are increasingly turning to the progressive parties, and Brexit has a big part to play as ‘Remainers’ move away from the regressive, and strident nationalism of Johnson’s Tory’s. The Greens are also beneficiaries of this swing in sentiment, as residents begin to feel neglected as Johnson panders only to those that vote for him.

We will consider issues such as changes to planning rules later in this article, but there is agreement from Conservatives that underlaying changes in traditional voting patterns are making life harder for the Conservatives in Oxfordshire, as Eddie Reeves the new leader of the Conservative group, says: ‘The party focus is quite understandably in growth areas. That will necessarily entail growing pains elsewhere. We are part of the unloved Tory shires.’

The recent Queen’s Speech set out the policy reform Johnson is planning post-Covid. Much of this was based around ‘levelling up’, especially planning reform, which could potentially split the party and the ‘red wall’ / ‘blue wall’ divide, with several Tory MPs already opposing what is purported to be the biggest shake-up of the planning system in over 70 years.

The aim of the bill is to achieve the governments’ goal of 300,000 new homes per year, easing the current housing crisis and get more young people onto the property ladder which should play to the Tory’s traditional strengths as the instigators of a property-owning democracy. It is no coincidence that 86 per cent of current Conservative seats have above-average levels of home ownership, while 70 per cent of Labour seats have below-average levels.

These proposed planning reforms are uniting what was previously different wings of the Tory party, e.g., both Theresa Villiers and Chris Grayling are seen as potential rebels when the Planning Bill comes to the House of Commons.

Another commonality is they are part of a small, but significant chunk of the parliamentary party whose seats were more secure in 2010, when David Cameron was forced into a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, than they were in 2019, when Johnson won an 80-seat majority. Also, both experienced worst results in the recent local elections despite the party’s overall success.

‘planning reforms aimed at providing more affordable housing will bring in younger, Labour voters further undermining their majorities’

They are already nervous about the continuation of the ‘blue walls’ collapse, and the proposed planning reforms aimed at providing more affordable housing will bring in younger, Labour voters further undermining their majorities.

Additionally, they fear a direct loss of Tory voters to the Liberal Democrats and/or the Greens campaigning against new housing on social or environmental grounds. It is no coincidence that while Red Wall Tories have their own ‘blue barricade’ WhatsApp group, MPs in the south tend to liaise on the ‘housing algorithm group’ which was initially formed to counter plans for a formula designed to boost housing targets in these constituencies. Now it’s seen as the informal caucus for southern MPs.

Theresa May is among the Tory MPs publicly criticising the proposal, saying the government’s Planning Bill would put the ‘wrong homes in the wrong places’.

Despite this, the local election results have cemented the PM’s authority, and his supporters feel that the bill will be approved even if the plans must be tweaked. However, after the mixed results in the local elections the cost of this bill could be an increase of the north/south divide within the party.

In summary, it doesn’t require too much imagination to visualise a liberal, university-educated middle class concentrated – by choice – in the affluent south, while a reactionary conservatism speaks for more regressive parts of the country. If this were to happen then the tensions that Brexit bought to the surface will burst forth again.

As Andy Burnham, the mayor of Manchester wrote, ‘Thanks to its centralising instincts, Labour has been, at best, lukewarm about English devolution. It needs to ditch that mindset. Devolution to the city-region level is the life-raft Labour can use in areas where it is struggling. It offers the precious opportunity to rebuild from the bottom up and connect with communities who are not listening to the Westminster Labour message.’

We remain a deeply divided country ruled by a divisive government determined to maintain the divide rather than heal it. The divide, whilst still on the perceived traditional north/south axis, is no longer based on economic issues, the issues now are cultural which, in many ways, makes it harder to bridge this gap, e.g., the civil rights movements of the 60s and 70s. To this we can add the economic gap between young and old, who are also equally divided over cultural issues.

‘There is a yellow one that won’t

Accept the black one

That won’t accept the red one

That won’t accept the white one..’

The long-running themes that have been the mainstays of Philip’s column seem to pop up like a metaphorical game of Smack The Rat, demanding immediate attention; this week it is the so-called Indian variant of Covid that has reared its ugly head.

There have been plenty of fingers pointed in de Pfeffel’s direction suggesting that virtually every decision that has been made has been made late and that communication has been poor.

But surely B.1.617 was a slam dunk – take one look at what’s happening to those poor souls in India, close the borders, keep the wee beastie out; but that would be too sensible by far.

Instead, Mr Johnson put a trade deal that defines underwhelming, ahead of what surely every ounce of common sense suggested; people were given plenty of notice of India’s shift to the red list, inventive companies were offering travel via countries such as Turkey, 20,000 people waltzed in untroubled by quarantine and were allowed to mingle cheek-by-jowl with those from around the world in Heathrow’s arrivals hall (the rest had been mothballed to save money).

So, the opportunity for Boris to celebrate his defiance and the unshakable success of our vaccination programme with a familiar Churchillian gesture? Of course not, in it came and cue surge testing and the return of a quiver to Mr Handcock’s inferior labia.

Just so that there was no confusion, on a single day Tory ministers trotted out at least four conflicting versions of what you are and are not able to do in terms of traveling to amber and red list countries; in the end Boris steered things much closer to ‘don’t travel’ than had previously been the case, but travel companies interpreted it as ‘not illegal’ and started flogging holidays in Spain and Greece anyway.

150 flights as day have been heading for amber destinations, and direct flights are still coming in from India, so who’d bet against a third lockdown? Certainly Germany is taking no chances, it has banned travelers from the UK because of fears of the variant.

Fully 14 months on the borders remain open, but Heathrow finally plans to segregate arrivals from early June – if the government pays.

The ebb and flow of party politics remains endlessly fascinating; notwithstanding Mr Starmer’s seemingly unswerving commitment to policy-free politics, Johnson’s willo the wisp populism must make him a frustrating opponent.

The theme of inequality also reappears but with those being left behind, poorer purely if you view progressive liberalism as a step forward. Many may not, and small c conservatives with the deeds to their house in the safe may feel that things are going rather nicely; young metropolitans may disagree.

Two tracks this week just for fun – Style Council with ‘Walls Come Tumbling Down’ and  Sly & The Family Stone and ‘Everyday People’. Enjoy!

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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