Beginning to See the Light: The wheels on the bus go round and round 

 

“I’m completely positive 

I think this time around 

I am gonna do it 

Like you never knew it” 

 
This week’s domestic headlines have been dominated by parliamentary misogynism. Firstly, appalling, and frankly childish comments about Angela Rayner, and now watching porn. 

The former was broken in a Daily Mail article which highlighted Tory MP(s) basic instincts! I won’t bore you with details. 

The Mail is a bastion of Toryism, whilst the article seemed well intentioned, it was both sly and demeaning, with a spiteful undertone as they raked over old stories from the victims’ past. This did nothing to enhance the article or its proposed point but was there to deflect the issue and set the dentures of their readers on edge. 

Their attitude highlights how backward we are as a nation. As is written numerous times, the past is the past, we must look forward and, in doing so, become inclusive, embracing each other as people irrespective of colour, creed, gender. 
 

‘There to deflect the issue and set the dentures of their readers on edge’

 
On Breakfast TV this morning the old chestnut, “Labour has never had a female leader” came up. True, perhaps there has never been one that was the outstanding, or best candidate? Isn’t it more sexist to elect a woman just because she is a woman, and it looks good? Equality is about equal opportunities not making gestures. 

Alas, I fear little will change. Whilst the PM was quick to condemn his colleagues’ comments, he is still the leader of this motely bunch. However, despite Johnson’s determination to hang onto power despite successive failings, it appears that plans are being made to ditch him “sooner rather than later”, despite there being no clear and obvious successor, or because of the war in Ukraine 

The Observer quoted a former minister, who said, “Things have changed. There is now a feeling that we can’t defend what is going on and that we can’t delay any longer because of the succession or Ukraine. If we don’t act well before the party conference in October, it will be too late.” 

What I believe is focussing Tory mind isn’t the scurrilous behaviour of the PM, it is the growing realisation of the effects the “Partygate” scandal could have on their electoral chances. 

One Tory MP was quoted as saying: “Lots of colleagues who have local elections going on have been hearing, ‘I like what you’re doing as our new MP, but we can’t vote for you while that blithering idiot is in office’. I spoke to several MPs this week who had all taken their seats from Labour. They all said the situation was terrible. They’re starting to say, it’s not whether but when – and it doesn’t matter who, as long as it’s not him.”   

Rather than worrying about themselves they should be ridding us of the first PM to have been given a criminal sanction while in office and the first to be placed under investigation for contempt of parliament.  They should be asking, can a person who has broken the law be the country’s chief lawmaker? Can a PM who lying to parliament and misleading it as business as usual remain in office?  

By defending him they become complicit to his actions. A party which describes itself as the “party of law and order” cannot defend these actions cannot expect to maintain the public. 
 

‘Less than 10% of voters think Johnson did not lie about “partygate”’

 
A recent opinion poll indicates that less than 10% of voters think Johnson did not lie about “partygate”.  As a senior Tory acknowledged, “the longer this goes on, the more the stain spreads to all of us”. 

Another poll, by YouGov, found that 78% of Britons believe Johnson has lied over Partygate. Even among Tory voters, only 17% say he’s told the truth. 

Steve Baker, the former Brexit minister, and Johnson loyalist said: “The problem is the contrition didn’t last much longer than it took to get out of the headmaster’s study. By the time we got to the 1922 Committee meeting that evening it was the usual festival of bombast and orgy of adulation. It took me about 90 seconds to realise he wasn’t really remorseful.” 

He added “People lived under barbaric rules. They were told that if they deviated one iota from the law they would kill people. And they suffered for it … Meanwhile in No 10, where they should have been obeying both the letter and spirit of the rules, clearly they breached both.” 

Anarchy now reigns in-place of government. Johnsons attempt to use his majority to defeat a Labour motion to investigate his misleading parliament fell apart when it became obvious that many Tory MPs wouldn’t follow orders.  

Management and mismanagement go hand-in-hand; even the investigation by the Met Police appears to be choreographed by the government, as Adam Wagner, a barrister who has become a specialist on Covid rules, puts it: “Why has the schedule of this investigation been so heavily influenced by what is convenient to the government?” 

Initially the Met refused to investigate Downing Street parties at all, a decision that was only reversed after a legal challenge. Even then they decided not to interview those involved, instead merely presenting them with a questionnaire. 

Despite its problems which corrodes and corrupts our democratic system, the government is still pursuing plans that would seriously undermine the Electoral Commission’s independence and open the way for political interference in the conduct of elections. 

Former Labour home secretary Lord Blunkett was last week quoted as saying: “A free and fair election is the touchstone of any functioning democracy, which is why we [Labour] introduced the Electoral Commission despite having a large majority and the political ability to give Labour an advantage in future elections. Revoking that independence would set a dangerous precedent for current and future elections, and would give an unacceptable signal to the rest of the world.” 

The Lords have already defeated the government over plans to introduce compulsory photo ID for voters, and, with backing from the internationalist, pro-democracy organisation Best for Britain, have also forced ministers to remove clauses designed to allow government to ban certain types of campaigners from participating in election campaigns. 
 

‘It took me about 90 seconds to realise he wasn’t really remorseful.’

 
The electoral commission has previously sent a public letter to Michael Gove, the minister responsible for elections, saying its proposals were “inconsistent with the role that an independent electoral commission plays in a healthy democracy”. Adding, “This independence is fundamental to maintaining confidence and legitimacy in our electoral system.” 

William Wragg, the Conservative chair of the Commons public administration and constitutional affairs committee, also wrote recently to Gove about the bill, saying that allowing ministers to shape the remit of the independent elections watchdog would constitute “an unacceptable risk to the functioning of our democracy”. 

The Electoral Commission has been a target for the Tories since it investigated key figures in the Vote Leave campaign after the 2016 Brexit referendum.  

An Opinium poll on behalf of Best for Britain today shows that 70% of people believe the Electoral Commission should remain fully independent of the government, including 79% of Conservative voters. 

Seeking to stem the rot, Johnson is revisiting Brexit as, in true populist tradition, he seeks out initiatives to appeal to his electorates bigoted views. This time it’s the Northern Ireland protocol (“the Protocol”) of the Brexit deal, the one he hailed as “great”, “excellent”, a fulfilment of all his negotiating ambitions. Only know he is junking it in favour of a proposed law that would give ministers the power to override the protocol.  The justification for this is that it was never meant to be a permanent solution, which means that Johnson lied to his European counterparts as well as his voters. Quelle surprise! 

The message to his adoring audience is that Brussels has taken a portion of UK sovereignty hostage. Whilst “remoaner softies” complain he isn’t playing by the rules and respecting his treaty, our hero, a latter-day Rambo, is there to rescue us. 

Johnson is seeking to override the EU Commissions process which is reviewing the Protocol in technical, and legal terms, via the commission. Haggling with bureaucrats is beneath him, he wants direct talks with the heavyweights, France and Germany. That doesn’t happen when you leave become a “third country”. 

This is just another example of Johnson clinging onto power, deflecting public attention, and thinking only of his short-term self-interests.  
 

‘UK households are already suffering the worst living standards squeeze since the 1950s’

 
Ultimately this is all posturing, which is about all this knackered government have left. Populist rhetoric playing to an audience. A battle with Brussels, possible obstruction by the House of Lords, and remain-supporting liberals, all designed to wet the appetite of his old Eurosceptic core. 

The reality is that Brexit is a disaster that keeps getting more expensive; a report by “UK in a Changing Europe” said trade barriers introduced after Brexit caused “clear and robust impact of Brexit-induced trade frictions”, leading to a 6% increase in UK food prices between December 2019 and September 2021. 

UK households are already suffering the worst living standards squeeze since the 1950s, with inflation reaching 7% in March and economists warn it could hit 10% this year. 

Pro-Brexit ministers had previously said that leaving the EU would bring down food costs by opening-up the British market to exporters from around the world.  

This whole shambles reminds me of where we were in the “winter of discontent”, only this time “the Conservatives aren’t working”. 

The Tory’s have their own playbook for the 1970s. The decade saw many benefits from greater freedom and equality. Whereas, right-wing newspapers, and politicians talk about post-imperial in decline, with Labour as the perfect scapegoats, forgetting that the Tory’s were in power for half the time. 

Problems that were seen as unique to the 1970s, such as out-of-control inflation, panic buying, and other disruptions to everyday life are reoccurring.  
 

‘Problems that were seen as unique to the 1970s, such as out-of-control inflation, panic buying, and other disruptions to everyday life are reoccurring’

 
Johnson’s failures cast his 1970s predecessors in a new light. He has a big majority, sycophantic press, and a limited opposition, yet he is still out of his depth. In the 70s, Edward Heath, Harold Wilson and Jim Callaghan governed in a much more hostile political environment, with frequent hung parliaments, more independent political journalism, and the lurking presence of Margaret Thatcher. Whilst their policies often failed, they pale when compared to Johnson’s folly’s, such as his complacency about Covid. 

Johnson’s defence will be Covid et al, but the 1970s saw two energy crises, increased inflation and reduced economic growth. 

For Labour this provides the opportunity to neutralise the political negative left by the 70s and show the Conservatives as the party of disorder. For months Labour have included references to “Conservative chaos” in their public statements, playing on voters’ growing exasperation and anxiety about Johnson’s inability to govern, and to promise that life under Labour would be safer and calmer. 

The Tories sense of entitlement and their self-serving behaviour, along with their air of decadence and casual destructiveness, has no precedent in our modern history. Post the Brexit referendum the Tory’s have embraced discontent that was never present in the 1970s; nationalism, income inequality, and anti-establishment are all further fuelled by social media breeding discontent 

Yes, Labour have established a lead in the polls, but it is smaller and less solid than those of Blair and Thatcher when they were in opposition. Unlike Thatcher they do not have the benefit of biased newspapers declaring a crisis at every opportunity.  

Starmer is dissociating himself from Corbyn and his policies, presenting himself as a cautious figure. However, as Thatcher’s victory in 1979, and Johnson’s in 2019 shows, voters often prefer radicals. 

Whatever chaos we endured in the 1970s, the governments were honest and decent, rather than convicts who lied to parliament. Johnson’s mob are authoritarians, attempting to silence critics and cripple opposition, with premeditated plans to rig future elections in favour of those in government (1). 
 

“You can’t put your arms around a memory 

Don’t try, don’t try” 

 
Notes: 
 

1. This quote was originally by Naomi Smith, CEO of Best for Britain. I adapted it, the original was: “This authoritarian bill is an obvious attempt to silence critics and cripple opposition, and represents a premeditated plan to rig future elections in favour of those in government.” 

 
Followers of Philip’s recent columns must wonder whether we could actually fall any further; well of course we can. Ladies and Gentlemen I not only offer you Beavergate in which Angela Rayner apparently sought to put Boris off his stroke with a glimpse of her lady garden, but also the revelation that an as yet unidentified Tory MP has been consuming pornographic material during mass debates in the house.

Presumably he will not be too difficult to finger given his poor eyesight and hairy palms; apparently struck with fear that his own ‘research’ could put him in the frame, W R-M apparently coughed up to having once perused etchings of a lady’s ankle.

So, what’s on your mind Philip?:

‘A rather strange week of no news and lots of news.

The situation in Ukraine seems to be deteriorating. Domestically, “Partygate” rumbles on, with increasing numbers of Tory’s realised the games up for Johnson, and, if they aren’t careful, for them, too. As I predicted some months ago, the local elections next week will be the watershed. If there is any common sense amongst the electorate the Tory’s should get a hiding.

Domestically the news has been about misogyny, led by Angela Rayner having her supposed Catherine Tramell moment, closely followed by MPs watching porn. The Daily Mail led with the Angela Rayner story, but in their typical sneery fashion there were lots of backhanded comments that will play to the blue rinse brigade’s sensitivities.

What is often missed is the government’s consistent attempts to undermine our democracy, this time it’s the Electoral Commission which really underpins free and safe elections in this country. Without them the PM will be judge, jury, and executioner.

Johnson’s latest attempts at saving himself via a popular uprising of his supporters is to resurrect Brexit, Brussels, and the NI Protocol. It’s so transparent it’s pathetic. Will it work? To an extent, the reality is that no one really cares about NI.

I finish with a comparison someone made with our current situation and the 1970s, winter of discontent, et al. There are indeed several parallels, inflation, stagflation, racism, nationalism, and sexism. The fact that the last-3 are still issues show how little we have progressed in 50-years. The difference between then and now is stark; yes, we had lame-duck, even bad governments then, but they were decent, honest, respectable, and diligent. This lot are the opposite; nasty, dishonest, self-serving, self-entitled, and anti-democracy.

Lyrically, we start in support of Angela Rayner and women everywhere, put on your dancing shoes, it’s Diana Ross and “I’m Coming Out”. We finish by returning to 1978 and a reminder to all those revisionists out there, “You Can’t Put Your Arms Around a Memory”, by the late, great Johnny Thunders, ex of The Heartbreakers, and New York Dolls.’ Enjoy!

 

@coldwar_steve
 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

Click on the link to see all Brexit Bulletins: