Beginning to See the Light: ‘The rule is, jam to-morrow and jam yesterday—but never jam to-day.’

 

‘I want it now, I want it now

Not the promises of what tomorrow brings

I need to live in dreams today’

 
There is so much that has been, and can be, written about the Johnson government that its hard to know where to begin. However, I suspect this will be the most damning….’It is now clear that this was the wrong policy, and that it led to a higher initial death toll than would have resulted from a more emphatic early policy. In a pandemic spreading rapidly and exponentially, every week counted.’

The fact that the Commons committee found the government at fault over their handling of the pandemic comes as no surprise. The surprise is the bewildering level of tolerance shown by the electorate as.

In general incumbent governments have fared well with the electorate during Covid, however there is something remarkable about the level of the Johnson administration’s failures when set against the degree of its continuing popularity. Whilst the country should deserve better, I can’t help thinking that level of tolerance he has benefitted from is based on voters expecting nothing better.

Added to the feel of resignation is Johnson populist nature which centres on constantly giving the electorate ‘enemies’ to blame for what goes on. A good example of this is Brexit, which provides an ongoing source of injustice for the public to vent their anger on.

The latest incarnation of shaking the Brexit tree of frustration, is the Norther Ireland Protocol. Even prior to Brexit it was clear to many that ‘leaves’ ambitions were at odds with the Northern Ireland Peace Accord. Johnson, in true populist style, chose to ignore this and blustered and bullied his way towards a settlement.
 

‘It led to a higher initial death toll than would have resulted from a more emphatic early policy’

 
After the predicted chaos that Brexit caused the province, and the feelings of Loyalists who felt the government had disenfranchised them has led to the UK continually trying to move the goalposts

Simon Coveney, Irish minister for foreign affairs, clearly isn’t impressed, saying; ‘The negotiating strategy Lord Frost has adopted so far this year, effectively, is to wait for the EU to come forward with compromise proposals; to bank those compromise proposals; say ‘they’re not enough’ and ask for more,’ said Coveney. ‘This is the same pattern over and over again.

‘The problem with that is that it may work in the short term, in terms of getting compromises from the EU – but at some point in time the EU will say enough, we cannot compromise any more without fundamentally undermining the functioning of the protocol in the context of the integrity of the EU single market. And I think we’re very close to that point.’

Depending on your viewpoint, you will either see this as statesmanship or dishonesty. Unfortunately, like leaders before him his bullying has succeeded as this morning the EU have offered to remove a majority of post-Brexit checks on British goods entering NI.

However in what might prove to be one tweet too many, his former adviser, Dominic Cummings appears to have let the cat out of the bag, tweeting that the flawed Brexit deal had been a way to get out of the electoral doldrums and ‘whack [Jeremy] Corbyn’, and ‘of course’ the government should be allowed to ‘sometimes break deals… like every other state does’.

His remarks have caused alarm in Dublin, where the former Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who negotiated the Northern Ireland protocol with Johnson in October 2019, said that, if true, they showed the government could not be trusted.

‘Those comments are very alarming because that would indicate that this is a government administration that acted in bad faith. And that message needs to be heard around the world, because if the British government doesn’t honour its agreements, doesn’t adhere to treaties it signs, that must apply to everyone else too.

‘So at the moment they’re going around the world they are trying to negotiate new trade agreements. The message must go out to all countries around the world that this is a British government that doesn’t necessarily keep its word, doesn’t necessarily honour the agreements it makes.’

This is just another leaf out of the Johnson playbook, agree something, forget it, then when it no longer suits forget the agreement and insist on something new. This is the typical behaviour of the swaggering bullies we have become. Brexiters swoon over it, thinking we have resumed our rightful place in the world order. The reality is that our behaviour is little better than that of the black shirted Hungarian thugs at Wembley last evening, themselves the puppets of another swaggering bully.
 

‘The typical behaviour of the swaggering bullies we have become’

 
The public swallow this because it makes them feel better about their own sad lives. Johnson closing speech at the Nuremberg Rally, sorry Tory party conference, was his mix of humour aimed at his opponents, and swaggering claims, including making the ‘big generational changes shirked by previous governments’.

There were hollow promises aplenty, especially of a better tomorrow. He talked of ‘taking the tough decisions’ to hit net zero targets but never came close to telling us how. Other than restricting immigration he has no plan to deal with the country’s many problems.

Johnson, always the gambler, believes that many have too great an emotional investment in the Brexit Britain he delivered to abandon the cause. This allows him to gloss over the rape crisis and try to reshape the truth about the governments handling of the pandemic.

His sells himself as the candidate of ‘hope’ but hope isn’t a strategy. His only hope is to continue finding enemies, and prolonging the pains of Brexit, as a way of satisfying the appetites of the masses. There is no substance.

In his mind petrol shortages, empty supermarket shelves and surging gas prices, are pain today and gain tomorrow, all a part of his grand plan. We are in transition, he explains, replacing a broken economic ‘model’, based around low pay and high immigration, into a new one, based around high productivity and high-wage job creation.

In some ways this is reminiscent of Thatcher’s early years as PM; an insistence that the apparent economic failure is, on the contrary, merely a symptom of the medicine beginning to work. Today’s medicine is restricting our dependence on foreign labour.

The difference is obvious, Thatcher, like it or not, had a transformative plan; Johnson, simply wants to remain PM 

He can get away with this because the Tory’s have always enjoyed the largesse of the electorate when it comes to discussing the essence and direction of capitalism, irrespective of the performance of the economy. This is a luxury the media and electorate rarely allow Labour
 

‘Thatcher, like it or not, had a transformative plan; Johnson, simply wants to remain PM’

 
In comparison, Starmer’s speech at his conference the week before, focussed on the benefits of what (good) business can do. His speech blamed Conservative economic policies for low wages but contained nothing as drastic as changing the entire model of the British economy.  Starmer, by avoiding making serious economic distinctions falls foul of an electorate that rewards mendacity, which tolerates Johnson lies, giving him the leeway to raise topics, so long as and he doesn’t do so with any serious intent and Labour remains silent about them.

Whilst economic reality cannot be wished away with bluster and humour, the fact remains that economic outcomes may eventually be determined by two policy areas that are no longer up for democratic debate: Brexit and monetary policy. Johnson can huff and puff about productivity and immigration, but neither he nor Starmer will stand up in public and highlight connections between our Brexit deal and the current chaos.

Whilst Starmer seems strangely silent, Johnson biggest opposition seems to be within his own party, as Tory ministers have privately expressed fear that government inaction on the emerging cost of living crisis could leave the country facing ‘a nightmare’ by Christmas. The second in succession.

Comments have included ‘being optimistic and leaving it up to businesses to pick up the slack’, ‘suboptimal’. Another said: ‘It could all build up to be an absolute nightmare for both the public and us, especially if – in the next few months – the economy goes into negative growth that we could have done more to prevent.’
 

‘Government inaction on the emerging cost of living crisis could leave the country facing ‘a nightmare’ by Christmas’

 
Last Friday, the Office for National Statistics revealed that 1 in 6 adults had been unable to buy essential food items in the past fortnight. They also found 13% of adults reported having to wait longer for prescriptions.

In addition, investment firm Scottish Friendly found households were expected to absorb an average of at least £441 worth of energy and petrol price rises this winter.

Keir Starmer accused Johnson of ‘turning on the poorest’ after the universal credit uplift ending earlier this week, saying it came ‘at the worst possible time because prices are going up’.

He continued, saying: ‘Whether that’s fuel or food, or energy prices, and this is going to drive families and children into poverty and for the government to turn on the poorest as we come out of the pandemic is just so wrong.’

There has recently been lots of talk about Johnson and how the Tory party has changed. This column commented shortly after his 2019 election victory that this wasn’t a ‘Conservative’ government it was populists masquerading as Conservatives.

As the Guardian wrote after their party conference; ‘It was all about him. Even when he wasn’t visible, he was omnipresent. He was there in the devoted eyes of the activists prepared to queue from six in the morning to secure a seat for the triumph of the Boris that concluded proceedings. He was there in the twitchy eyes of ministers who referred to him as ‘the boss’ or ‘the king’ even when they weren’t on camera’.

Johnson, whatever he was, has become a populist. As such he is an ‘absolute leader’, government ministers are only followers. Populism needs ‘strong’ leaders such as Viktor Orban in Hungary, or Trump in the US.

Pre-Johnson, the Tory’s had values and convictions, which had evolved over time in response to changing times and electoral needs. However, there was a basic level of continuity and decency.  

The typical Tory MP believes in low taxes, restrained public spending, free markets, a stable society, and a modest state. Now, they find themselves members of a government presiding over chaos, raising taxes, bashing business, and encouraging wage inflation without any serious plan for mitigating the disruption, creating economic growth, or improving productivity.
 

‘Johnson has little in the way of beliefs or ideology’

 
By comparison, Johnson has little in the way of beliefs or ideology. His ‘beliefs’ are like his relationships, transitory; he acts in instinct saying and doing what he thinks will best suit his purpose. He has one consistent goal, keeping himself popular and in power.

Despite all his failings, ‘believers’ are convinced of his political genius. Why else would he consistently be ahead in the polls whilst reigning over chaos?

Johnson isn’t a genius, he’s a charlatan. One day soon someone is going to realise the emperor isn’t wearing any clothes. As this column has said before, populisms Achilles’ heel is delivering on its grand rhetoric. As Alice found, the promise of jam tomorrow rarely materialises.

This week we finish with football, and the sale of Newcastle United to Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.

In the spirit of transparency, I am a Spurs fan, the last thing I want is another club being able to outspend us. But, as I wrote last year when the ‘Super League’ was mooted (for the record, I still believe it, or something like will happen) the game sold its soul to the devil years ago. However, there is still enough of a romantic in me to believe that English football is better than this.

The game and the players have done much to show what good sport can bring to society. The England’s teams’ collectiveness, there support for children and the less privileged in society, along with the BLM message has set an example we should be proud of.

Saudi Arabia has a terrible human rights record, their stance on homosexuality is totally at odds with footballs ‘rainbow laces’ campaign. This takeover is one sell out too many.

Sadly, this transaction only serves to highlight our practical and morally diminished place in the world order.

Brexit and our governments disingenuous behaviour around it has left us with few friends in Europe, our relationship with the US under Biden could be described as ‘cool’, although we continue to jump whenever they ask us to.

Unfortunately, economically we have long been in thrall to states such as Saudi, and the Gulfs ruling families, not to forget the oligarchs.
 

‘Our banks launder their stolen money, accountants then hide it’

 
Our banks launder their stolen money, accountants then hide it, our lawyers sort their legal affairs, whilst our PR firms burnish their image, and our estate agents get rich selling them luxury homes that remain largely unused.  

Worse still, our governments panders to them as they keep our arms industry afloat. We dare not criticise Saudi Arabai for its human rights abuses, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, or its war in Yemen.

Newcastle fans will hold their noses and see only glory and trophies, as did the supporters of Chelsea and Manchester City before them.

Politics mirrors this; over time we have come to accept eye-watering levels of inequality, poverty and downward social mobility, and long ago came to tolerate the power of capital, irrespective of its origins and actions. As history has shown, if you continually deny people the hope that things can change for the better, they will gravitate to those offering something different, whatever their real intentions, however false their promises.
 

‘But everytime I think about

Where you are now

I start to take offense

‘Cos you lied to me’

 
Another pithy piece from Philip this week, and a rather uncomfortable summary of what appears to be a rapidly deteriorating situation; and where’s Boris?

The ‘stop press’ is the current headline on the BBC News Website – ‘Tory MP Sir David Amess Stabbed to Death’. Just how far have we fallen?

Rather than offering my own two-pennorth this week, I am going to publish the note that Philip sent with this week’s article, because it gives a really good insight into his thoughts and what underpins the column.

‘Another week rumbles on, with little from the government to improve the situation. The strategy seems to be ‘hope’, and a reliance on business to fix things.

The commons report which found the governments’ handling of the pandemic as too little too late, should surprise no one.

The real surprise is why the majority accept constant failure. He enjoys a largesse never seen before in this country. I think there are two explanations for this.

One a lot of people supported Brexit and are determined to avoid being wrong. For them, hope is also the strategy. Only hope isn’t a strategy, it’s Alice in Wonderland, ‘I wish, I wish, I wish..’

Secondly, it’s the populist tactic of enemies, giving the electorate someone to blame. Brexit keeps on giving, and now they are adding GPs to the list.

All of this is supported by a media that appears to be rabbits caught in the headlights; spellbound, transfixed by what he says. At some point people will realise the emperor is wearing no clothes, but how long that will take, who knows?

I finish by considering the Saudi acquisition of Newcastle United, which shows how low we have come as a country. I include this because there are parallels between politics and football that interest me.

Lyrically, it’s all about Liverpool. We start with the ‘Bunneymen’s’ comeback single ‘Nothing Ever Lasts Forever’. Now I’m sounding like Alice, ‘I wish….’. The lyrics perfectly capture the situation we are in. We end with Wah! and ‘Hope’, which is all we have.

In light of today’s shocking news, hope may seem that much further away; it minded me to share a magnificent quote from the late, great Andy Ripley:

Dare we hope? We dare.

Can we hope? We can.

Should we hope? We must.

We must, because to do otherwise is to waste the most precious of gifts, given so freely by God to all of us. So when we do die, it will be with hope and it will be easy and our hearts will not be broken.

— Andy Ripley, 10 June 2007, Athlone Friary.

RIP Sir David Amess
 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

 

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