Beginning to See the Light: New Dawn Fades 

 

“Hoping for something more 

Me, seeing me this time 

Hoping for something else” 

 

Whilst “partygate” continues making headlines, I see it as a symptom, this article considers the disease. The disease is that the Tory is suffering a moral void within itself, the party’s response to “partygate” proves this statement. The question is, what is left of traditional Conservatism? 

Prior to Thatcherism, Conservatives were famous for being conservative: Queen, country, empire, business, low taxation, and sceptical of change. They were pragmatic; short of workers after the war, lets encourage immigration from the empire. 

Thatcherism was dogmatic, based on an ideology of low tax, a small state, and privatisation. The next big shift was bought on by the double whammy of the GFC and the rise of UKIP which led to Brexit.  

Thatcherism still has it advocates, such as Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, but, as a concept has run its race. Privatisation was a short-term win but, in the main, has delivered little, there are no council houses left to sell, the unions have been neutered. 

What we have now is a muddle. Johnson has no concept of traditional Conservatism, no ideology, believing only in his right to rule. Currently we are seeing economic interventionism, and higher taxation, disguised with bumble, bluff and bluster. 

Almost 6-yrs on from the Brexit referendum which launched the Johnson-era there is still no coherent plan or programme to establish the UK within new trading blocs or redefine the relationship with our largest trading partners. Covid aside, it is unclear how the UK will thrive in a post Brexit, post-pandemic, post-Ukraine world. In the 3-yrs since Johnson came to power, we have stumbled from one embarrassment to the next. 

 

‘Currently we are seeing economic interventionism, and higher taxation, disguised with bumble, bluff and bluster’

 

Policy centres around his amoral attitude to power augmented with a growing array of enemies. The government displays a rabid disdain not just for the conventions of politics and power, but for liberal democracy itself. 

Johnson has turned the party into populists; giving the electorate what they want at any one time and moving in-time with this. At its heart populism is anti-establishment, regressive, nationalistic, providing scapegoats for its followers for to vent their frustration on.  

Populism thrives under “strong” leaders. Johnson is strong is so much as he clings onto power and will say and do whatever is required to maintain it. Lying is therefore part of his playbook. As a character or politician, I regard him as weak, desperate, and selfish. 

“Levelling-up”, and the other new ideas promised on the back of Brexit have proven to be no more than rhetoric, whilst the he Culture Wars play to his supporter’s regressive attitudes.   

Nationalism and racism go together. Today, nationalism can be defined as asserting the interests of one’s own nation as separate from the interests of others or the common interests of all. Often nationalism is underpinned with the notions of superiority, especially when it comes to ethnicity and religion.  

Nationalism is what happens when patriotism gets out of hand. For example, speeches on immigration and foreign policy can become nationalistic, blaming migrants for rising unemployment. 

Are British people racist? Whilst there are different degrees of racism, I would say the “baby-boomers” are. Yes, many will go abroad on holiday, enjoy ethnic cuisine, and they embrace foreigners so long as they aren’t “over here”. 

This largely explains the governments’ desision to “offshore” male refugees to Rwanda  

The timing of the announcement was cynicism personified. Only days after Johnson became a convict, he announced a policy designed to appease Tory voters, and shore up the red wall Tory voters before the May local elections. Civil servants are reported to have opposed the plan devised by Johnson and Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, but their concerns were ignored. 

One of the most despicable points about this whole ghastly saga is the role of Priti Patel, the Home Secretary whose parent emigrated her from Uganda in the 1960s. In 1972, the then dictator of Uganda, Idi Amin, gave Asians three months to leave the country, saying that they “only milked the cow, but they did not feed it”. 

All of them were settled and welcomed by the Conservative government of Edward Heath. Heath ignored the xenophobia and racial intolerance of people such as Enoch Powell. Now the home secretary and her colleagues are willing to sacrifice Conservative ideals which provided a haven to the powerless.  

 

‘The home secretary and her colleagues are willing to sacrifice Conservative ideals which provided a haven to the powerless’

 

Announcing the proposal Johnson made much of our history of openness and generosity to refugees. However, as with all things Johnson, what he said was, at best, wishful thinking. For example:  

 

• We took 9,000 children in the Kindertransport, but not one adult Jew fleeing Nazi persecution.  
• After last year’s debacle in Afghanistan, we took a few thousand interpreters and other key workers at the last moment.  
• Our boast of taking in 25,000 Syrian refugees pales into insignificance when you consider that > 6 million have fled their country in the 11-years since war began. Lebanon, with a population of 6 million has hosted 2-million Syrians. 

 

The UK is the fifth or sixth largest economy and takes just 0.2% of the world’s refugees. 

According to Johnson one of the drivers of “offshoring” was stopping the trade in people trafficking. Currently refugees are stuck in a catch-22; they can only claim asylum once they are in the UK but the only way to get here is illegally. Rather than addressing this, he is proposing that any asylum seekers, including Ukrainians without a visa, who reach the UK would be rounded up by the army and given a one-way ticket to Rwanda. 

Johnson misleads us by referring to asylum seeker as “illegally entering the country”. He knows full well that refugees fleeing conflicts or persecution can rarely enter Britain legally. If they had the opportunity to apply for a visa, they would not be refugees. Seeking asylum routinely involves entering a territory without prior permission. 

 

‘Some Tory MPs estimate it would be cheaper to put all the refugees up at the Ritz’

 

Other justifications for the proposal included Rwanda respect for human rights, and conveniently forgetting that only a few years ago we had condemned their human rights violations.  

The proposal we were told is a bargain. However, some Tory MPs estimate it would be cheaper to put all the refugees up at the Ritz.  

Finishing on a high note, Johnson saved the best till last. This policy was necessary because he was a firm believer in the rule of law. Really!! 

Reaction to the proposal has been mixed. A poll of > 1,000 adults, carried out by Savanta for the Daily Mail found that: 

 

• 47% of all voters supported the idea,  
• 26% are against. 

 

Among those who voted Labour at the last election, 39% support the proposal whilst 36% are against it. 

The survey also revealed that most believe the plan will be effective at deterring economic migrants. However, many had concerns over the initial £120million cost, with only 39% saying they think it represents ‘value for money’. 

Another survey by YouGov provided a breakdown by age groups which highlights a problem for the government that we will come onto. 

The survey found that most of the support for the plan came from the over-50s. Specifically, 26% of those aged 50-64, and 36% of over-65s strongly supported the proposals, whereas only 8% of 18-24s, and 11% of 24-49s did. 

Unsurprisingly, those who voted “leave” were broadly supportive, whereas “remainers” were anti, supporting the theory that Brexit was driven by nationalism / racism,   

The UN refugee agency has opposed the plans and said they could be challenged under the Refugee Convention. 

Gillian Triggs, the assistant high commissioner for Protection of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees said, “Such arrangements simply shift asylum responsibilities, evade international obligations, and are contrary to the letter and spirit of the Refugee Convention. People fleeing war, conflict and persecution deserve compassion and empathy. They should not be traded like commodities and transferred abroad for processing.” 

In parliament ministers will face resistance especially from the House of Lords. 

Baron [Alf] Dubs, a former Labour MP who was brought to Britain from Czechoslovakia on one of the Kindertransport trains in 1939, told the Guardian that the government was trying to “ride roughshod” over international agreements designed to help those seeking sanctuary. Dubs said peers would fight against the “awful, shocking decision” when legislation was introduced 

“I think it’s a way of getting rid of people the government doesn’t want, dumping them in a distant African country, and they’ll have no chance of getting out of there again. I think it’s a breach of the 1951 Geneva conventions on refugees. You can’t just shunt them around like unwanted people.” 

Clearly the timing of the announcement was designed to deflect attention away from “partygate”, but of equal importance is the opportunity for Johnson to play the “will of the people” card against parliament and the courts. With local elections only weeks away the proposal will appeal to racist “Little Englanders”, and give “red wallers”, and even people suffering through the cost-of-living crisis a focal point to blame.  

In many respects this is a last desperate roll of the dice from a party that has lost its way. Their traditional bankable policies are in disarray. 

 

‘In many respects this is a last desperate roll of the dice from a party that has lost its way’

 

Their claim to be the party of law and order is a joke. Johnson prorogued parliament before that was declared unlawful by the courts, he has now been found guilty of breaking his own laws and then lying about it to parliament. 

The other traditional claim as “the party of business”, lies prostrate on the altar of Brexit. 

All that keeps them in power are the failings of the opposition, our “first-past-the-post” electoral system, and older voters. 

 C.50% of Tory voters are now over 65, and 83% are over 45.  

Younger voters are deserting the party. Thatcherism has made all but impossible for them to become homeowners, and Brexit, with its incipient nasty repressiveness further alienates them. The facts bear this out; in 1983, the Conservatives won the support of 42% of those aged 18 to 24, but by 2019, that figure had halved. 

Education wise, voters with degrees now seem to be anti-Tory. This is especially important as C.50% of young people in England now go to university.  

Geographically, the party’s resistance to liberal social attitudes is undermining them in areas that once supported them, E.G., the south-east commuter belt. More and more of the supposed English middle class are becoming socially liberal, eco-minded which doesn’t fit with the Tories’ increasingly reactionary instincts. 

There are still some Tory’s left who have common sense, you would expect them to realise that their political luck will soon run out. They owe him nothing. Threats of ending their careers by voting against him should be tempered by the fact that the party has already left many of them. Johnson isolated good ministers such as Rory Stewart and Amber Rudd who could be bought back into the fold. 

They govern based on paranoia, with no distinction between substantive policy and desperate gimmicks. They appear to ignore the everyday realities of people’s lives.  

For example, Trussell Trust research, carried out with the food delivery company Deliveroo found that: 

 

• 33% of parents skipped at least one meal to keep up with other costs  
• 20% said they had been unable to cook hot food at least once in the past 3-months because of the cost of using an oven. 
• 10% of parents are “very likely” to use a food bank to feed their children over the next 3-months 

 

Another example, is that the UK ranks 25th out of 38 OECD countries when it comes to female life expectancy, according to the Health Foundation. In addition, women living in the most deprived areas of England can expect to live 78.7 years, almost 8-years less than those living in England’s wealthiest areas 

For any Conservatives who remain genuinely conservative, there are numerous reasons. to get rid of Johnson, and to reconnect their party with coherence, sense and the basic responsibilities that come with power. If not, Rwanda might be a decent alternative. 

 

“I saw the tears as they cried 

They had tears in their eyes” 

 

Notes: 

1. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/travel/survey-results/daily/2022/04/14/8bb29/1 

 

An ugly week in ugly times; his lame defence of ‘Partygate’ has managed to make J R-M look even more absurd than normal, but the reality is that we are all poorer because of the lies and obfuscation that our ‘leaders’ obviously feel comfortable to serve up to us.

Every utterance is cynical and scheming; Boris said that his heart was ‘swollen with pride’ on the occasion of Brenda’s 96th. Didn’t stop him from lying through his molars to her though, did it?

Rwanda. Really? Surely it can only be a matter of time before Pritler becomes a WWF wrestler or a Bond-villain.

So how was your week Philip?:

‘A strange week domestically. We had Johnson’s offshoring of refugees taking the initial headline before “partygate” stole them back.

When I started writing this offshoring was the focus. It is horrible, possibly evil, and ignores our responsibilities. Whilst there is an appalling cynicism in the policy and the timing of the announcement, it is another symptom of the Tory disease – the party has a moral void.

Conservatism has been lost. Johnson is just another cheap populist, a weak bully posing as a strong leader. Nigel Farage with a more preposterous hairdo.

Their support is the over 50s, and primarily the over-65s. Frightened people, scared of change, inward looking nationalists who are racist. They will protest their innocence but most like foreigners when they aren’t “over here.

Geographically and demographically the country is split, ultimately this will go against the Tory’s in their current incarnation. They can resurrect themselves but massive change at the top is required.

Overall, I was left feeling that we are just a very nasty country. Not alone, but that doesn’t make it right. Rwanda has good weather I’m told.

Lyrically, we return to Joy Division and their debut album “Unknown Pleasures”. As Paul Morley wrote,

“Their music is undoubtedly filled with the horror of the times – no cheap shocks, no rocky horror, no tricks with mirrors and clumsy guilt, but catastrophic images of compulsion, contradiction, wonder, fear. The threatening nature of society hangs heavy; bleak death is never far away; each song is a mystery, a pursuit.”

We start with “New Dawn Fades, and end with “Wilderness”. Both hauntingly apt. Enjoy!

 

@coldwar_steve

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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