Beginning to See the Light: Labour and Social Democrats, Where Next?

 

‘We shared some ideas

 

All obsessed with fame

Says we’re all the same..’

As this column has written numerous times before, the current Conservative government has little in common with its predecessors other the name, ‘Conservative’.
 
In it’s place we have a populist entity feeding the bigotry of those left behind, glorifying little Englanders sated with Brexit, anti-immigration policies, a policing bill designed to undermine organisations such as ‘Black Lives Matters’, and a culture war designed to oppress any social progress that was achieved in the last 50-years.

So popular is our populist leader that despite C.127,000 covid related deaths, a large percentage of which were avoidable, and a death per million figure which was the 6^th worst in the world, voters still think he’s doing a great job! The latest Opinium poll for the Observer found that:
 

• 44% now approve of the government’s Covid handling, with 36% disapproving.
• The Conservatives recorded a 45% share of the vote, while Labour recorded 36.
• Boris Johnson’s personal approval rating is positive, with 41% approving and 38% disapproving.
• 38% opted for Johnson as the best PM, and 25% for Starmer. 22% opted for neither.

 
Adam Drummond, an Opinium associate director, said: ‘The vaccine bounce continues to yield political benefits for the government, with their strongest figures for handling the pandemic since they first became negative last May.

In terms of voting intention, the figures bounce around due to statistical noise, but there is a consistent Conservative lead in the high single digits.

Not everyone is taken in by Johnson; his government has been accused of corruption, privatising the NHS by stealth, operating a ‘chumocracy’ and mishandling the pandemic and climate crisis, by Sir David King, a former government chief scientist.
 

‘The vaccine bounce continues to yield political benefits for the government’

 
‘I am extremely worried about the handling of the coronavirus pandemic, about the processes by which public money has been distributed to private sector companies without due process. It really smells of corruption.’

King went on to contrast the success of the vaccination programme, carried out by the NHS, with the failure of the government’s test-and-trace operation, which has been contracted out to private companies; ‘The operation to roll out vaccinations has been extremely successful. It was driven through entirely by our truly national health service and GP service – just amazing,’ he said. ‘Yet we have persisted with this money for test and trace, given without competition, without due process … I am really worried about democratic processes being ignored. This is a so-called chumocracy, that has been a phrase used, and that is what it looks like I’m afraid: it is a chumocracy.’

King rejected the argument that the government had to act quickly to counter the pandemic and had been forced to ignore normal processes in doing so. ‘People say it’s a crisis – I say the government is using a crisis to privatise sections of the healthcare system in a way that is completely wrong. A fraction of this money going to public services would have seen far better results.’

He accused the government of acting deliberately to carry out ideological aims of privatising the NHS. ‘It is slipping this through in the name of a pandemic – effectively, to privatise the NHS by stealth,’ he said. ‘I’m quite sure this has not been an accident, I’m quite sure this has been the plan, there has been clarity in this process. The audacity has been amazing.’

Despite this the government sails on, as this column reported some weeks ago in the article entitled ‘I Wanna Be Elected’, Labour now requires at least a 10.52% swing to win an election, greater than they achieved in either in 1945, or 1997. Should, as seems likely, the Tories win the next general election they could rule for the rest of the decade, which would be the longest government since Britain became a modern democracy.
 

‘acting deliberately to carry out ideological aims of privatising the NHS’

 
Bizarrely, although they have been in government since 2010, they have rarely been popular, twice relying on electoral deals with other parties.

They have displayed little in the way of competence, consistent policies, or fresh ideas. It was only in the last election that they won a convincing majority, and that was based on downplaying the fact that it had already ruled for the previous 9-years.

Other than the infamy of Brexit, their only other claim to fame is austerity that speeded up the process of the rich getting richer at the expense of everyone else. There has been little in the way of strategy, just a series of improvisations and accidents rather.
 

‘There has been little in the way of strategy, just a series of improvisations and accidents’

 
Where they have excelled is in their ability to reinvent themselves and play the electorate, shamelessly exploiting events, such as the Brexit vote and the Covid vaccination campaign they cling onto power.

Their voter base seems to be based on shifting sands. Currently they rely largely on pensioners for their votes, whereas Thatcherism was popular with young voters, and was in-tune with 1970s and 1980s trends such as rising materialism and widening property ownership.

Overall, the country has become more liberal on areas such as immigration, and benefits claimants, despite the efforts of the government and the press.

It is possible that the relentless culture wars are no more than a rear-guard action. After all, how long can a government sustain itself by protecting old statues?

In response to the Tories short-term opportunist approach, Labour seems preoccupied with ‘borrowing’ their playbook, for example their ‘use of the [union] flag, veterans, dressing smartly at the war memorial etc’, to ‘give voters a sense of authentic values alignment’.

This strategy appears to be targeting the ‘red wall’ seats it lost to the Tories in 2019, whose constituents are often older and more socially conservative than its supporters elsewhere.

In her book ‘The New Working Class: How to Win Hearts, Minds and Votes’, Claire Ainsley, portrays today’s British working class as large and politically pivotal but also ‘disparate’, ‘atomised’ and increasingly employed in low-paid, insecure, service-sector jobs – a class transformed ‘over the past 40 years’ by deindustrialisation, the polarisation of incomes and the decline of trade unions. She argues that these unsettled voters want politicians who value ‘family, fairness, hard work and decency’. Versions of this formula have appeared in many recent Kier Starmer speeches.

Only recently Starmer wrote in the Observer: ‘I know the pride that comes with a good wage and job security … The task for Labour is clear: to get Britain working again.’ This is, hopefully, more representative of his thoughts than wrapping himself in the flag.

Another writer, the MP Jon Cruddas, espoused the view that the modern British left is represented by young urban educated cosmopolitan winners,’ ⁽¹⁾ who have ‘replaced the workers’ as the left’s priority and main source of support.

These aren’t the urban radicals of yesteryear, but well-educated cosmopolitan workers with poor wages and no job security, bad rented housing, and student debt.
 

‘well-educated cosmopolitan workers with poor wages and no job security, bad rented housing, and student debt’

 
They aren’t our economy’s ‘winners’, who are more likely to be found in what politicians and the media still reverently call the traditional working class, e.g.  the retired, formerly Labour-supporting property owners of the red wall.

Britain has changed a lot since the glory days of Thatcher and Blair. Voters appeared to have grown tired of single-minded administrations with ‘projects’. The post-Brexit Tories no longer offer clear policies, which has the benefit of giving voters nothing to reject, and the opposition little to oppose.

Without a clear understanding of those changes, Labour is doomed to be the opposition, neither right-wing enough to take votes from the Tories nor radical enough to prevent defections to the Greens, or left-wing Britons simply refusing to vote.

In some ways the Tories have revisited the 1950s, an era beloved by their pensioner voters, when they governed for over a decade, with four different PM’s, and much bungling, evidenced by the 1956 Suez crisis, fatally mishandling the 1957 flu pandemic. At the same they cleverly manipulated the timing of elections to build an increasing, while the Labour left and right fought each other.

This isn’t dissimilar to the last 10-years of Tory government which has failed to energise Britain as promised. As Harold Wilson said during the 1964 election campaign, these were ‘13 wasted years.’

In a similar vein, Starmer also wrote in the Observer: ‘Labour must be bold. Ahead of us is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rethink what Britain can be, where power lies and who it works for.’
 

‘a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rethink what Britain can be, where power lies and who it works for’

 
If Starmer is seeking inspiration and example he should look to the US where another populist, Donald Trump, was ousted from power by a forward thinking, progressive. Newly elected President Biden can, perhaps, best be summed up by his words; ‘It’s bold, yes, and we can get it done.’

This was how he described the launch of his $2tn plan to overhaul US infrastructure, including fixing 20,000 miles of roads, to remaking bridges, ports, water systems and ‘the care economy’; care now defined as part of the country’s infrastructure.

Also included is a vast increase in spending on eliminating carbon emissions and on artificial intelligence. An addition of up to another $2tn is to follow for childcare, education, and healthcare, all of this follows the $1.9tn ‘American Rescue Plan’, passed just three weeks ago.

Unsurprisingly, this is already being compared with Roosevelt’s New Deal or Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programme. Ironically, it is exactly what Britain requires, but real action to tackle our left-behind in all its manifestations, levelling up, racial equity, net zero emissions, and becoming a scientific superpower, rather than hollow promises.

Interestingly, Biden had previously been hawkish of the budget deficit, supporting Bill Clinton’s Third Way ⁽²⁾ and fiscal responsibility under both him and Barack Obama, when the US federal debt was two-thirds of what it is today. Biden has copied a page from Trump’s playbook in ignoring the deficit, but rather than cutting taxes for the super-rich, Democrats can give every American child $3,000 a year.

Biden is promising no additional taxes on individual Americans whose income is below $400,000 a year, instead his infrastructure proposals will initially be financed by borrowing, followed by progressive rises in corporation tax to 28%, a minimum tax is to be levied on all worldwide company profits, along with assaults on tax loopholes and tax havens.

Within this he is proposing a global minimum corporate tax rate of 21%, which could raise an extra $300bn annually for governments around the world. Setting such a minimum would help curb tax avoidance and profit-shifting, especially by multinationals, and potentially end the controversies over rival national digital taxes.
 

‘a clear vision of what is required, one that proposes progressive and inclusive policies with a proper plan on how they can be funded’

 
Whist this has the backing of tax-fairness campaigners and European members of the G20 group of finance ministers, it is already under attack from corporate lobbyists and Republicans in Washington, who claim it would place American companies at a competitive disadvantage.

Countries with low corporation tax rates, such as Ireland, could be big losers, and, as with any proposal that requires global adherence, China’s support is crucial.

Before concluding this piece, I would like to pay tribute to Prince Philip. As readers will know I am not a monarchist, but he and Her Maj are the acceptable face of it.

Diligent, committed, and as much as someone so detached from reality can be, caring about their citizens. I use the term citizen as, in the 21^st century, no-one with any self-respect should regard themselves as ‘subjects’.

They exemplify what patriotism should be, inclusive of all members of society, not the exclusive version practiced by this government and red-faced, bellicose nationalists thinking that belting out Rule, Britannia at the Proms makes them patriots. They are simply bigoted nationalists.

As to our future, once again the US is earning the right to be the world’s leader, showing that incompetent, corrupt, bigots can be beaten.

Biden’s policies show that populism can be overcome, and democracy saved if politicians are bold enough. The electorate must learn to put their hopes and trust in a leader with a clear vision of what is required, one that proposes progressive and inclusive policies with a proper plan on how they can be funded.

This has been missing in many western democracies in recent years. It has encouraged, politicians without policies to flourish by championing extremist views that pander to their bigoted audience, and enabled the rise of authoritarian regimes.
 

‘Destiny is calling me

Open up my eager eyes

‘Cause I’m Mr. Brightside..’

 
Notes:

1. ‘The Dignity of Labour’, by Jon Cruddas
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Way#:~:text=During%20his%201992%20presidential%20campaign,ideas%20of%20the%20Third%20Way.&text=The%20Third%20Way%20is%20in,role%20in%20bringing%20this%20about.

 
A reflective piece from Philip this week that revisits the many familiar themes that have been woven into his column as it has evolved over time.

A reasonable summary of his opening skirmishes could be ‘how bad do you need to be to be booted out of office these days?’; few will have taken huge comfort from Mr Cameron’s pledge to answer positively to any enquiry into his lobbying, unless of course the question is ‘have you been abusing your position to stuff your greedy chops?’

Given the abusive nature of his past relationships with pigs’ heads I’m surprised any would wish to share a trough with him, but it’s reasonable to surmise that Tory sleaze is alive and kicking; true too that ‘Dodgy’ Dave looks a rather callow novice next to the Queen of Chumocracy and her Where’s Wally app.

Meantime, it appears Boris can do no wrong; the number of unnecessary deaths caused by his dithering, delay and muddle-headedness can only be guessed at, but he’s surfing the wave of vaccination optimism for all its worth; he’s soaring in the polls, and his approval rating for his handling the pandemic and as PM give him an air of invincibility. 

Philip has often reflected on the Tory party’s ability to shapeshift; to fan the flames of, and then provide solutions to the fears of groups that for some reason feel they have been disadvantaged or left behind.

It is often levelled as a criticism, yet as a tactic employed by a populist administration, maybe it is a stroke of genius; by the time Sir Keir has dressed smartly and draped himself in the union flag as a tactic to win back the disaffected working people in the North, Boris has found another fearful flame to fan.

Philip takes much heart that another populist was usurped by the ‘forward thinking, progressive’ Joe Biden taking bold steps to revitalise US infrastructure and healthcare, pump money into emerging technologies and the green economy; all without increasing taxes.

However, maybe its easier in the States than it is here due to the blurring of boundaries that has occurred; over there the political map is blue on the coast and red in the middle, with the handful of swing states where news crews hang out during elections.

Over here, what can a Labour opposition do to unite the disaffected working class in the North with young, urban, educated cosmopolitans? 

Populism can only be overthrown when it becomes un-populism, or the opposition creates more-populism; there’s precious little sign of that at the moment to the degree that Boris can just get away with waiving away demands for an enquiry into Tory sleaze.

Those that have tuned in to A Year to Save the World will have been left in little doubt of the severity of the climate emergency we are in and that all the science points to the fact that we have passed an inflection point on the road to the apocalypse. So commeth the hour and all that, what better opportunity than this for the leader of the host nation of COP26 to show his green credentials? 

Well, you wouldn’t really expect that would you; as France passed a law to ban domestic flights for trips that can be made in less than two and a half hours en train, Boris has purchased a new Airbus A321, replete with a £900,000 paint job ‘to be used by the prime minister and other dignitaries for short-haul trips’. 

What could possibly go wrong?

Never a royalist, Philip’s tribute to Prince Philip is heart-felt and we echo it; rest in peace Sir you have been a loyal servant and tireless ambassador for this country and we are all a little poorer for your passing.

Two track, just for fun – bragging rights for The Strokes with ‘Hard to Explain’ and The Killers with ‘Mr Brightside’. Enjoy!
 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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