Beginning to See the Light: God, it’s hot!

 

Beginning to See the Light, 13^th August 2021; ‘Preservation of our environment is not a liberal or conservative challenge, it’s common sense. …’

 

‘All around the planet

There’s a blindness that just can’t see

Have to shut the whole system down

They’re all wearing climate change

As cool as they can be’

 

The quote that forms the title of this week’s feature could have been from one of the world current leaders in response to this week report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (‘IPCC’), whereas it was said by the then US President, Ronald Reagan, in his State of the Union speech on January 25, 1984. Sadly, 37-years on many are still in denial, others see it as a political football, with the net result that the situation just gets worse.

There is a stark reality, our collective behaviour is changing the Earth’s climate in ways ‘unprecedented’ in thousands or hundreds of thousands of years, with some of the changes now inevitable and ‘irreversible’, climate scientists have warned.

‘Within the next two decades, temperatures are likely to rise by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, breaching the ambition of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, and bringing widespread devastation and extreme weather.’

There must be an immediate reduction in greenhouse gases, and a paradigm shift globally to a low-carbon footing to prevent, or perhaps, forestall this situation. Each fractional increase will compound the accelerating effects, according to the IPCC, the world’s leading authority on climate science.

 

‘our collective behaviour is changing the Earth’s climate in ways ‘unprecedented’ in thousands or hundreds of thousands of years’

 

Their latest report was the sixth published by them since 1988, took 8-years to compile and involved hundreds of experts and peer-review studies. It represents the world’s full knowledge to date of the physical basis of climate change and concludes that human activity was ‘unequivocally’ the cause of rapid changes to the climate, including sea level rises, melting polar ice and glaciers, heatwaves, floods and droughts.

In November governments from 197 countries will meet in Glasgow for vital UN climate talks, called COP26. Each nation represented has been with fresh plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that will limit global heating to no more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the ambition of the Paris climate agreement and a goal the IPCC emphasised.

António Guterres, the UN secretary general, warned: ‘[This report] is a code red for humanity. The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable: greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel burning and deforestation are choking our planet and putting billions of people at immediate risk. This report must sound a death knell for coal and fossil fuels, before they destroy our planet,’ he said.

Boris Johnson, prime minister of the UK, hosts of COP26, said: ‘Today’s report makes for sobering reading, and it is clear that the next decade is going to be pivotal to securing the future of our planet … I hope today’s report will be a wake-up call for the world to take action now, before we meet in Glasgow in November for the critical COP26 summit.’

John Kerry, special envoy to US president Joe Biden, said: ‘The IPCC report underscores the overwhelming urgency of this moment. The world must come together before the ability to limit global warming to 1.5C is out of reach … Glasgow must be a turning point in this crisis.’

Temperatures have now risen by about 1.1C since the period 1850 to 1900, but stabilising the climate at 1.5C was still possible, the IPCC said. That level of heating would still result in increasing heatwaves, more intense storms, and more serious droughts and floods, but would represent a much smaller risk than 2C.

 

‘a code red for humanity. The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable’

 

Richard Allan, a professor of climate science at University of Reading, and an IPCC lead author, said each fraction of a degree of warming was crucial. ‘You are promoting moderate extreme weather events to the premier league of extreme events [with further temperature rises],’ he said.

Civil society groups urged governments to act without delay. Doug Parr, chief scientist at Greenpeace UK, said: ‘This is not the first generation of world leaders to be warned by scientists about the gravity of the climate crisis, but they’re the last that can afford to ignore them. The increasing frequency, scale and intensity of climate disasters that have scorched and flooded many parts of the world in recent months is the result of past inaction. Unless world leaders finally start to act on these warnings, things will get much, much worse.’

Stephen Cornelius, chief adviser on climate change at WWF, added: ‘This is a stark assessment of the frightening future that awaits us if we fail to act. With the world on the brink of irreversible harm, every fraction of a degree of warming matters to limit the dangers.’

Even if the world manages to limit warming to 1.5C, some long-term impacts of warming already in train are likely to be inevitable and irreversible. These include sea level rises, the melting of Arctic ice, and the warming and acidification of the oceans. Drastic reductions in emissions can stave off worse climate change, according to IPCC scientists, but will not return the world to the more moderate weather patterns of the past.

Ed Hawkins, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading, and a lead author for the IPCC, said: ‘We are already experiencing climate change, including more frequent and extreme weather events, and for many of these impacts there is no going back.’

So dire is the situation that even the government is taking note; Alok Sharma, the minister in charge of the COP26 talks to be held in Glasgow this November, told the Observer that the consequences of failure would be ‘catastrophic’: ‘I don’t think there’s any other word for it. You’re seeing on a daily basis what is happening across the world. Last year was the hottest on record, the last decade the hottest decade on record.’

 

‘Unless world leaders finally start to act on these warnings, things will get much, much worse’

 

Then, somewhat bizarrely, he insisted the UK could carry on with fossil-fuel projects, including plans to license new oil and gas fields. He defended the government’s record on plans to reach net zero emissions by 2050, which have been heavily criticised by the UK’s independent Committee on Climate Change and dismissed controversies over his travel schedule which has seen fly to red-list countries, visiting at least 30 countries in the last seven months without quarantine on his return. He was exempted from isolation requirements, as are other many other workers under government rules. Seeing ministers in other countries in person had been essential, he said, to build trust and strike deals before COP26, when he will face the task of bringing 197 countries together in a consensus to keep to the 1.5C target, with each required to set out detailed plans for doing so.

Quite how he can reconcile such a gross carbon footprint when he could achieve the same result via Zoom, or Teams, puts in perspective how they see this.

On the one hand he is in his words ‘throwing the kitchen sink’ at efforts to reach a deal whilst adding to the very problem he is trying to overcome. Like all of us he needs to realise that being in the same room as someone isn’t imperative it’s an outdated nicety.’

Johnson, our illustrious leader, was also deeply engaged, Sharma insisted, despite Labour leader Keir Starmer claiming that Johnson was ‘missing in action’, having made no major intervention yet on COP26, and was offering ‘a cabaret of soundbites’ in place of policies. ‘The prime minister is very much at the frontline, I have regular dialogue with him,’ said Sharma. ‘He is regularly talking to world leaders, making the case for more climate action.’

 

‘Last year was the hottest on record, the last decade the hottest decade on record’

 

Several prominent Tories have also attacked the government’s green stance in recent weeks, rejecting moves to ban gas boilers and complaining of rising energy prices. Sharma used his first major interview as the clock ticks down to COP26 to describe his vision for a healthier world if businesses and investors could be convinced to grasp the opportunities. ‘If we get this right, we can have a healthier planet, a cleaner planet, and we can have economic growth with high value-added jobs.’

This dissent within the ranks and COP26 summit presents Johnson with a challenging period after the summer recess.

Aside from the obvious issues raised by the IPCC report it highlights the fact that he is the leader of a Tory party that resents both ideologically and financially at the hard and expensive choices that are inextricably linked to his net-zero-by-2050 pledges and to the implications of the IPCC report.

Recent opinion polls haven’t made good reading for the party, as a result many in the parliamentary party have little time for an ambitious climate agenda fearing that the disruptions and costs could be politically toxic among poorer former Labour voters in so-called red wall seats who prefer local investment and the NHS. In addition, they are ideologically opposed to raising borrowing and taxes that would allow such programmes to continue.

This is in addition to the clear scepticism of climate change that is in the DNA of some Conservatives’, notably those on the libertarian right. Part of this is fuelled by the lingering presence of Nigel Farage, who’s latest madness is to UN of alarmism and warns of waves of eco-refugees.

Climate crisis aside, Johnson leads a party that is divided about post-Covid plans, including whether to maintain uplift in universal credit, to much larger strategic spending choices on health and social care. As I wrote last week there is a stand-off between Johnson’s instinct for popular spending pledges and the chancellor’s desire to keep tight control of the post-pandemic purse strings.

 

‘there is a stand-off between Johnson’s instinct for popular spending pledges and the chancellor’s desire to keep tight control of the post-pandemic purse strings’

 

The relationship between the two has morphed into rivalry as the pandemic unfolded, a situation highlighted when the chancellor’s letter calling for a relaxation of travel restrictions was leaked at the end of last month. The reports that Johnson openly threatened to demote Sunak are clear evidence of serious divisions within both the government and the parliamentary Tory party.

There are two fundamental reasons why the internal Tory arguments about net zero, about building back after Covid, and about the party’s future direction must be taken seriously.

Firstly, ideologically they tend to bring Johnson’s personality and populism into conflict with the ascetic anti-governmental instincts that much of the party and its rich donors have internalised since the era of Margaret Thatcher.

The second is more narrowly political; the modern Tory party has become rebellious and confident enough to bring its leader down, a fact exemplified by Johnson’s own behaviour.

This impasse will likely be concluded in the chancellor’s Sunak’s autumn spending review. Whilst Covid forced the Conservatives to embrace of the state doing ‘what it takes’ to keep the economy alive, the post-Covid plans will either be the dawning of a new Conservative era, or a return to the austerity policies of yesteryear. To date Sunak has kicked the can down the road which has enhanced his position within the party but at some point he has to back one way forward.

The climate crisis has bought this into sharp focus, Johnson has over-promised too many things on too many issues, and the party cannot continue being simultaneously heavy spenders and tight fiscal rules enforcers. This might mean disappointing their new friends in the north.

In many ways, and despite the good will his 2019 electoral success still allows him, he remains an isolated leader, with no clear beliefs. He doesn’t take his ministers and his MPs very seriously, and few of them have a deep-seated belief in him.

What is clear is that this cannot continue, the future of the planet and the inheritance we leave our children is at stake.

 

‘You can laugh and take it as a joke if you wanna

But it don’t rain for four weeks some summers

And it’s about to get real wild in the half

You be buying Evian just to take a fuckin bath..’

 

A different tack this week as Philip devotes his column to the climate crisis and specifically the stark message delivered by the recent IPCC report that concluded that there is a ‘code red for humanity’ and that even if urgent and decisive action is taken, some damage is irreversible and ongoing.

If inequality is an ongoing theme to Philip’s column, there can scarcely be a greater divide than between the massive GHG emitters worshiping at the shrine of consumerism, and those least able to cope facing the worst excesses of flooding, wildfires and famine.

The forthcoming COP26 meeting in Glasgow in November is seen by many as the last chance saloon; the last chance for countries to deliver concrete plans to slash carbon emissions before the world reaches a tipping point beyond which all is conjecture and potentially beyond control.

As President of COP26 Alok Sharma has already courted criticism by racking up a phenomenal number of air miles as he sought to secure face to face agreements ahead of the summit; such behaviour is low hanging fruit for those that believe that unless we dramatically change our ways all is lost.

There are many warning signs that the millions of worthy words that will inevitably be trotted out in Glasgow will not amount to a hill of beans when it comes down to meaningful action.

Even if Boris ditches the kite and cycles to the summit, this government’s attitude to aviation is perhaps an area that calls into question whether it really has the stomach to take the action necessary to tackle what is an existential threat; that is not a party political issue, some of the biggest climate deniers, or those that profit the most from destructive behaviour, are Tory grandees.

The unfettered growth of bucket and spade travel in the last twenty years has resulted in aviation being one of the fastest growing contributors to GHG emissions; so surely demand needs to be managed if we are to achieve our commitments and that would seem relatively straightforward when aviation fuel is not taxed, unlike your granny’s rising heating bill.

Not so fast; populist Boris doesn’t want to be the Grinch that had to tell ‘hard working families’ that the three ‘olidees a year they ‘deserve’ are giving Greta the pip. 

So the government, piloted by Grant ‘Two Planes’ Shapps, ‘remains supportive’ of airport expansion, is content to allow airlines to ‘offset’ their emissions, even though a large number of schemes have been proven to be entirely sham, and says people can carry on flying ‘guilt free’ in the hope, rather than expectation, that a ‘technical solution’ will come along – SAFs that don’t impact on food crops and are cheap enough for airlines to keep offering flights to Malaga for twenty quid. 

‘Following the science’? Well, no – the government’s own advisers, the Climate Change Committee concluded that there should be no net expansion in airport capacity.

And that’s just one sector; throw in a massive road building programme and the continuing issuance of fossil fuel extraction permits and it would be reasonable to ask Boris whether anything he says at COP26 has even a modicum of sincerity to it.

Recent news bulletins may hint at the challenge – stories of Branson, Musk and Bezos duking it out in the new ‘space race’, followed by the great news that Boris has ‘saved Summer’; then cars cartwheeling down flooded Belgian streets and firefighters giving water to singed squirrels. And nobody joins the dots – Sky News Weather, sponsored by Qatar Airlines.

‘Climate change? don’t tell us about climate change, we lead the world in tackling it. Although I don’t see why we should do anything until they bally well do’.

Anybody fancy venturing north of the Red Wall and telling folk they’ve got to ditch the fortnight in Benidorm to install a heat pump?  And if it’s a big ask here, try selling the story to those in poorer countries where survival remains the challenge.

Philip has often speculated about what might finally trip Boris up; the climate emergency may just be the issue. The time for bloviation has passed – unless emissions are cut, as opposed to their rate of growth lessened, we are in it deep, and to date there are precious few signs that Boris has the minerals nor the resolve to lead us out.

Two very different tracks this week, but one powerful message – Neil Young with ‘Shut it Down’ and Mos Def with ‘New World Water’. Enjoy!  

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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