Beginning to See the Light; Five Years Part II

 

‘Hate to say I told you so, all right!

Come on!

Do believe I told you so.’

 

For anyone who has had the misfortune to follow this column from inception, you may remember that this journey started with an article entitled, ‘Brexit, the never-ending story’.

 

In that piece I asked a series of questions, the second of which was, ‘what will be the impact of leaving on the Conservatives and will we see the party splinter into factions?’

When I last reviewed this question in December 2020, the exit agreement was still be to be signed, I said then that ‘moderate ‘leave’ MPs would prefer a deal. A barebones, worst-of-all-worlds deal will please no one, despite his likely protestations that it is ‘fantastic’, ‘world-beating.’ All he can do is pretend it is better than the supposedly apocalyptic ‘better than a bad deal’.

Where the Tories go from here is anyone”s guess, is this the day of reckoning that finally break them? ‘Where is the promised soft landing in sunlit uplands? Instead of ‘exact same benefits’, there will be none.’

Before dealing with the Tory party”s internal issues, we will consider what has happened post-leaving the EU, this can be segmented into actual, and to be confirmed (‘TBC’).

For the former a good example is the fact that British food and drink exports to the EU fell by £2bn in the first three months of 2021, with sales of dairy products plummeting by 90%, according to an analysis of HMRC data.

Brexit checks, stockpiling and Covid have been blamed for much of the downturn, but the sector has said the figures show structural rather than teething problems with the UK’s departure from the EU.

‘The loss of £2bn of exports to the EU is a disaster for our industry and is a very clear indication of the scale of losses that UK manufacturers face in the longer-term due to new trade barriers with the EU,’ said Dominic Goudie, the head of international trade at the Food and Drink Federation (FDF).

He called on the government to ‘stop prevaricating’ over proposals to help exporters ‘shut out of trading with the EU’.

The HMRC figures show dairy products down more than 90% and exports of cheese down by two-thirds compared with 2020. Whisky fell 32%, chocolate 37% and lamb and mutton 14%.

TBC is evidenced by the fact that 6-months after finally leaving the EU the latest Ipsos Mori survey indicates, most of the British public still don’t think Brexit is over:

 

• 40% think there are still many important issues to ‘finalise’ and ‘lots more negotiations’ to come,
• 25% say there are still ‘some important areas left to decide’.

 

They are correct, the full implications of the decision to leave the EU have yet to be felt and resolved, e.g., the Northern Ireland protocol.

Despite these uncertainties, C.20% of leave voters think the future relationship is ‘mostly decided and will hardly change.’

What is becoming increasingly obvious is that the implications of Brexit go beyond UK-EU relations, for example the Hartlepool and Chesham and Amersham byelections illustrates the divide the referendum revealed in our society.

One of the attractions of Brexit to ‘leavers’ was it was viewed as an uprising against the entrenched elite with other benefits such as ‘taking back control’ in areas such as trade and sovereignty.

Unsurprisingly the actuality of Brexit is not quite what was sold to us. For example, the trade deal with Australia, which sacrifices farmers, who were primarily ‘leave’ supporters, for a meagre 0.02% of GDP.

As to sovereignty, the objective was ‘freedom’, however post-Brexit there is far less talk of ambitious regulatory reform. This can possibly be explained by the nature of the Conservative coalition, a mix of traditional Tory voters, who might be supportive of ‘rolling back’ the state and reducing regulation, and their new supporters in the north who tend to favour the opposite.

Covid has masked the impact of Brexit and has allowed the government to gloss over it. Approximately 50% of the public say that Brexit has made no difference to their daily life, rising to more than 70% of leave voters. In addition, 75% of leave voters do not know anyone affected, positively or negatively.

On the surface the numbers appear supportive of ‘leave’, however over 40% of ‘remain’ voters claim to know people whose jobs or businesses have been affected, and more than half think Brexit has made their daily life worse.

 

‘5-years on it is still unclear whether the government can, or even knows how to deliver the expectations of ‘leavers”

 

What has yet to become clear is the impact on voters. Will the issues that proved the driver for the Lib Dems to sweep away a Tory majority in the Chesham and Amersham byelection be repeated in a general election, especially now the ‘threat’ of putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street has gone away?

Perhaps more importantly, the argument that Brexit has been relatively painless might not continue to fool ‘leave’ voters for long. Focus groups with ‘leavers’ underlined their high expectations that the referendum would be the trigger for the government to address issues such as infrastructure, health, police, and the rejuvenation of British manufacturing.

5-years on it is still unclear whether the government can, or even knows how to deliver the expectations of ‘leavers’, an issue made more difficult by the competing visions of those within their ranks. For some leaving was sufficient, whilst for others, especially those in the ‘red wall’, leaving was a means to dealing with more substantive objectives.

What Brexit revealed and exacerbated are the divides within the country; young and old, north and south or London and everywhere else, have’s and have not’s, progressive and regressive. The Tories, with their remarkable ability for self-preservation, built on the politically left behind that supported Brexit and, with the addition of the Culture Wars, built an electoral base that saw them sweep to power in the 2019 general election.

Even a fudged Brexit that stitched-up Northern Ireland, fisherman, and farmers, with the addition of their botched handling of C-19 which has led to at least 50% more deaths than was necessary, their popularity goes from strength-to-strength.

A new breed of Tory has been uncovered in the so-called ‘red wall’ that had been Labour’s heartlands, all Brexiters and fans of the culture wars, regressive and dismissive of the London ‘elite’ and all they champion. New planning policies, described as a ‘developers charter’, will allow developers free rein to developer as and where they see fit, with the wishes of locals trampled over.

 

‘What Brexit revealed and exacerbated are the divides within the country’

 

Within the party the Northern Reform Group rule the roost; ‘build back better’ and ‘levelling up’ are the policies that support these newly discovered ‘left behinds’.

Blue is the colour, London and SE put back in their box. Only this time Jack is springing out of his box in the form of the Liberal Democrats (‘Lib Dems’) who stormed to victory in the Chesham and Amersham byelection, overturning a 16,000 Conservative majority to take the seat by just over 8,000 votes, a swing of 25%, in a seat that had been solidly Tory for almost 50 years.

This result is yet more proof of what was becoming apparent, i.e., signs of Conservative support starting to fall away in parts of the SE, and more affluent parts of other regions of the country. In 2018, the Lib Dems trounced the Conservatives at local elections in such commuter-belt places as Kingston upon Thames and Richmond.

Only a month ago these increasing signs of discontent continued as the Lib Dems made big advances in Oxfordshire, Wiltshire, St Albans, Surrey and Tunbridge Wells (as well as moving from having no seats on Amersham’s town council to taking control).

Within this is rising support for the Green party in comparable places – Cambridge, East Sussex, Gloucestershire, Suffolk. Labour’s role in this story is arguably more marginal but it also seems to have made inroads at the Tories’ expense, as evidenced by its progress in the affluent Mancunian borough of Trafford, and such unexpected triumphs as its 2017 victory in Canterbury, repeated at the following election.

Prior to the Chesham and Amersham byelection, a former insider at a London-based thinktank wrote a piece for the Spectator suggesting that these signs of voters dissent would pass with minimal impact; ‘hopefully then we can stop hearing any rubbish about how the Lib Dems are set to tear down the Conservatives’ ‘blue wall’ in the home counties. As the campaign has demonstrated, the Lib Dems are miles away from being able to cause such an upset.’ He concluded by saying, ‘The Lib Dems will lose on Thursday, most likely fairly badly, and they will have no one to blame but themselves.’

 

‘What they failed to understand is that this trend is as much cultural as it is political’

 

What they failed to understand is that this trend is as much cultural as it is political. For much of the English middle class, especially those in London and the SE, Brexit was a watershed event. Many, including myself, regarded ‘leave’ as a fundamental mistake, and, with the Tories, the party that we had traditionally supported, hijacked by Brexiters, they were no longer representative of our views.

One of the divisions the referendum highlighted was the increasing dislike of London/SE, with many ‘leave’ voters happy to see London suffer. This was made worse as Johnson wooed voters in the ‘red wall’, and with the Northern Research Group in the ascendency, the party became more representative of their beliefs and values. Policies that benefit them, such as the proposed planning described as a developers’ charter, and the development of HS2, are viewed by many living in London/SE as being detrimental to them.

Finally, the new Tory voters are culturally, socially, and environmentally conservative. Johnson’s promotion of the ‘Culture War’ might suit them, but these regressive policies are out-of-step with people in London and the SE.

‘Middle-class suburbia’ has changed, many areas have become more ethnically diverse, leaning more to the political left. These are people that the current version of Conservatism either can’t or doesn’t want to speak to.

Many of the ‘new’ occupants came from the cities where their values and beliefs were formed and. benefitting from the expansion of further education created by the Blair governments, have a broadly liberal view of the world. Crucially, they also voted remain, and have been ostracised by the divisive Toryism that grew out of Brexit. Their policies on immigration, pursuing the hardest kind of exit from the EU, and cultivating the kind of political atmosphere that favours attacks on the judiciary and today’s ‘Culture Wars’ has meant the party’s values no longer represents them (us).

 

‘These are people that the current version of Conservatism either can’t or doesn’t want to speak to’

 

As before what works for one-half of the country doesn’t work for the other half.

For all their many failings the Conservative party of Messrs Cameron and George Osborne understood the need for ‘modernisation’, and the fact their party had to change. Whilst their project was perhaps cosmetic and overshadowed by their pursuit of austerity, there was some attempt at being progressive.

What replaced them was a counter-revolution within the party, led by people who didn’t care if they were labelled ‘the nasty party’, who are pursuing a populist, divisive agenda aided by a purge of more centrist Conservatives.

Johnson and his mob have been quick to embrace their new ‘friends in the north’, in doing so they have overlooked much of their traditional supporters who do not like him, or what he is doing with power. Brexit is still uppermost in their minds and, as many of them now embrace homeworking and move in ever-increasing numbers from London to its surrounding areas, they will become an increasing part of the electorate that wishes to see the back of this type of conservatism.

It is clear from Johnson’s response to the byelection defeat, when he said that there were ‘particular circumstances’ at play, that he has no grasp of the real issue. He went on saying, ‘We are a great one nation party, and we will continue in our mission to unite and level up, because that is the best way to deliver jobs, prosperity, across the whole country.’

With reference to the proposed planning changes, Johnson said the plans had been ‘misrepresented’ by the party”s opponents. ‘What we want is sensible plans to allow development on brownfield sites. We”re not going to build on greenbelt sites. We”re not going to build all over the countryside, but I do think that young people growing up in this country should have the chance of home ownership, and that’s what we’re focusing on.”

Ultimately, we are still a country divided; what plays well with the old, and the ‘red wall’ voters alienates the young and those in the newly anointed ‘blue wall’ Johnson and the Tory’s, in their desire to osmose and retain power have overplayed their hand, either assuming that their traditional strongholds will follow then whatever, or by not realising that progressive people are repelled by them.

I would like to think this is the beginning of the end for them, but I fear that the first-past-the-post, the electoral system that passes for democracy in this country will come to the Tory’s rescue. Unless the opposition, in this I include Labour, Lib Dems, and the Greens can form what is being referred to as a ‘progressive alliance’ the dissident vote will be split and the Tory’s will benefit.

Personally, I see little hope of this sort of cooperation, and whilst the opposition will moan about the government it will be their egos and lack of vision that sees the country condemned to a new dark age.

 

‘No reason to get excited

The thief, he kindly spoke

There are many here among us

Who feel that life is but a joke..’

 

More reflections from Philip this week, five years on from the Brexit vote he looks at what are now dubbed the ‘red wall’ and the ‘blue wall’ voters and explores how they can appear so diametrically opposed in so many ways, yet each remain pillars of a popular and populist administration.

Philip has long believed Mr Johnson to be ‘more dangerous than Trump who was obvious, snarling, and aggressive, whereas Johnson is seemingly full of bonhomie, speaking of reconciliation whilst, at the same time, continuing to stoke the fires of division’; and if Brexit succeeded in one thing alone, it was in creating and exacerbating division – young and old, along racial lines, haves and have-nots and progressive vs regressive. 

It suits Boris to foment these inequalities whilst steering those disaffected/left-behind to conclude that they need look no further than the Tory party for the answer to their chagrin; but gaps on the shelves and on the balance sheets of exporters suggest that the Brexit-effect is being felt, albeit that waters have been muddied by Covid.

Philip has also been firmly of the opinion that remaining in power is pretty much the beginning  and the end of the ambition of this administration and that it is prepared to employ any jingoistic tactic in its pursuit; well, however quickly it was dismissed publically, there must have been some serious conversations at Tory HQ after the Returning Officer had completed their work in Chesham and Amersham.

Possibly already unsettled by Brexit, large numbers of voters kicked up at HS2 ploughing through their verdant and well-manicured patch, and the prospect of a ‘developers’ charter’ to shape planning legislation and that’s it; disgusted.

Make no mistake, it was a powerful message, and a reminder that the Tories should take their traditional core vote for granted at their peril; having said that, anybody fancy asking Harry what the odds of a Lib Dem PM any time soon are?

Over the years we have seen how often reality has turned out to be even more extreme and sometimes gloomy than even Philip’s most fanciful predictions; particularly with this administration things move at lightening pace, so when Philip put down his quill just yesterday, few outside of the Sun’s editorial department would have seen pictures of Matt Hancock with a handful of buns.

Ah Matt, in one fell swoop you’ve proven that there’s nothing wrong with Dom’s eyesight when it comes to examining CCTV footage and that Boris is a pretty good judge of character.

Still, all’s well that ends well, as colleagues have rallied round – Boris ‘The Two Backed Beast’ Johnson has unsurprisingly forgiven his minor indiscretion of breaking the law and his infidelity, and Grant ‘Two Planes’ Shapps/Fox/Stockheath/Green has reassured all and sundry that No10 has ‘world leading’ recruitment procedures. Who needs enemies?

Two tracks just for fun this week – a debut for The Hives with ‘Hate to Say I Told you so’ and  Jimi Hendrix with ‘All Along the Watchtower’. Enjoy!  

 

 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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