April Market

The latest edition of Stephen Eckett’s fascinating reference book may have you scratching your head in search of a rational explanation for what is presented, but one thing is for sure, you’ll return to it again and again as 2017 unfolds.

April is one of the most exciting months for investors!

Five years ago, April was the strongest month for the stock market in the year, but it now ranks second behind December. The two months have been switching first and second places for quite a few years. For the last few years it has been December in top spot, but April is not far behind.

Interestingly, this characteristic is not unique to the UK market; a study of 70 markets worldwide found that the strongest months for shares were (in descending order) December, January and April.

On average, the market rises 1.8% in this month; and the probability of a positive return in the month is 72%.

Since 2003, the market has only fallen three times in April, although this doesn’t match the earlier performance: from 1971 the market rose in April every year for 15 years – a recent record for any month.

The market often gets off to a strong start in the month – the first trading day of April is the third strongest first trading day of all months in the year. The market then tends to be fairly flat for the middle two weeks and then rises strongly in the final week.

The two days either side of the Easter break are abnormally strong, April has historically been a strong month for oil, and the FTSE 100 normally fares well against the S&P 500; however – beware April 8^th as it is the third weakest day of the year for shares!

The great seasonality significance of April is that it is the last month in the strong part of the six-month cycle (November-April) and therefore investors may be reducing their exposure to equities ahead of May

To purchase this book for the special DIY Investor price of £18 + P&P (RRP £25) use the following promotional

code when checking out at the Harriman House online bookshop: DiYEE15.

www.harriman-house.com